Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 25.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 96.2

Total Profit: -3.9

Masters Tournament

12/11/2020 - 15/11/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Bryson DeChambeau 7 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.51% 4.2% -4.31% T34
2 USA Dustin Johnson 8 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 11.11% 7.56% 4.99% -2.57% 1
3 ESP Jon Rahm 9 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 10% 6.81% 3.33% -3.47% T7
4 USA Justin Thomas 11 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.67% 3.95% -1.73% 4
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.67% 2.14% -3.53% T5
6 USA Xander Schauffele 14 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.54% 3.12% -1.42% T17
7 USA Brooks Koepka 16 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4% 1.51% -2.49% T7
8 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 22 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 4.35% 2.96% 2.07% -0.89% T13
9 USA Patrick Cantlay 25 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 2.13% -0.48% T17
10 USA Bubba Watson 25 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 1.68% -0.94% 57
11 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.35% 3.19% 0.85% MC 9.34
12 USA Patrick Reed 28 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.35% 2.37% 0.02% T10 (tied w/3) 9.34 +10.3
13 USA Tony Finau 28 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.35% 1.59% -0.76% T38
14 USA Collin Morikawa 30 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.2% 2.81% 0.62% T44 8.74
15 USA Webb Simpson 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2% 2.64% 0.64% T10 (tied w/3) 7.97 +10.1
16 USA Matthew Wolff 40 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 2.83% 1.17% MC 6.61
17 AUS Jason Day 40 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 1.04% -0.62% MC
18 AUS Adam Scott 40 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 0.9% -0.76% T34
19 USA Tiger Woods 40 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 0.48% -1.18% T38
20 USA Scottie Scheffler 50 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.33% 2.58% 1.24% T19 5.31
21 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 55 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.22% 1.74% 0.52% T23 4.84
22 USA Cameron Champ 55 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.22% 1.21% 0% T19 4.84
23 ENG Paul Casey 55 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.22% 1.19% -0.03% T38 4.84
24 ENG Justin Rose 55 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.22% 1% -0.22% T23
25 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 60 (Sport Nation: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.12% 1.17% 0.05% T19 4.44
26 IRL Shane Lowry 60 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.12% 0.82% -0.3% T25
27 USA Rickie Fowler 60 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.12% 0.56% -0.56% T29
28 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 2.05% 1.04% T46 4.05
29 USA Jason Kokrak 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1.98% 0.97% MC 4.05
30 AUS Cameron Smith 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1.12% 0.1% T2 (tied w/2) 4.05 +28.8
31 USA Jordan Spieth 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 0.64% -0.38% T46
32 KOR Sungjae Im 80 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 1.24% 0.4% T2 (tied w/2) 3.35 +28.5
33 ITA Francesco Molinari 90 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 0.53% -0.21% MC
34 MEX Abraham Ancer 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 2.48% 1.8% T13 2.69
35 ENG Lee Westwood 100 (Betway: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.57% -0.11% T38
36 USA Phil Mickelson 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.41% -0.26% T55
37 USA Kevin Kisner 110 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 1.79% 1.18% MC 2.44
38 USA Matt Kuchar 110 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.79% 0.18% MC 2.44
39 ENG Ian Poulter 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.94% 1.4% T25 2.15
40 USA Billy Horschel 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.61% 1.07% T38 2.15
41 RSA Erik van Rooyen 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.25% 0.71% WD 2.15
42 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.96% 0.42% T34 2.15
43 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.83% 0.29% T10 (tied w/3) 2.15 +18.6
44 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 1.4% 0.95% MC
45 USA Brendon Todd 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 1.17% 0.72% MC
46 ENG Matt Wallace 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.83% 0.38% T46
47 USA Gary Woodland 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.63% 0.18% MC
48 USA Zach Johnson 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 1.57% 1.15% T51
49 USA Brandt Snedeker 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 0.42% 0% 59
50 USA Kevin Na 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 1.05% 0.67% T13
51 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.62% 0.23% 58
52 SWE Henrik Stenson 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.25% -0.13% MC
53 AUS Marc Leishman 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.25% -0.14% T13
54 KOR Byeong Hun An 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.59% 0.25% MC
55 RSA Charl Schwartzel 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.35% 0.01% T25
56 USA JT Poston 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 1.27% 1% MC
57 RSA Dylan Frittelli 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 1.06% 0.79% T5
58 CAN Adam Hadwin 250 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.68% 0.41% MC
59 USA Charles Howell III 250 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.67% 0.39% T46
60 FRA Victor Perez 250 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.64% 0.37% T46
61 ENG Danny Willett 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.61% 0.34% T25
62 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 250 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.59% 0.32% T38
63 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.39% 0.12% T51
64 RSA Justin Harding 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.91% 0.68% MC
65 USA Lucas Glover 300 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.67% 0.45% MC
66 NIR Graeme McDowell 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.47% 0.24% MC
67 USA Max Homa 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.39% 0.16% MC
68 USA Chez Reavie 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.89% 0.7% T29
69 USA Tyler Duncan 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.76% 0.63% MC
70 USA Andrew Landry 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.5% 0.36% MC
71 USA Nate Lashley 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.15% MC
72 GER Bernhard Langer 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% T29
73 CAN Nick Taylor 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% T29
74 TPE C.T. Pan 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.13% T7
75 JPN Shugo Imahira 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% T44
76 THA Jazz Janewattananond 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% T51
77 USA Andrew Putnam 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.03% MC
78 USA Fred Couples 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.1% -0.02% MC
79 USA Jimmy Walker 750 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.11% 0.02% 60
80 USA John Augenstein 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.1% 0.03% T55
81 FIJ Vijay Singh 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.1% 0.03% WD
82 CHN Lin YuxinAm) 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.1% 0.03% MC
83 USA Andy Ogletree 1500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.1% 0.06% T34
84 AUS Lukas Michel 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.1% 0.06% MC
85 CAN Mike Weir 1500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.1% 0.05% T51
86 IRL James Sugrue 2000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.1% 0.07% MC
87 ESP Jose M Olazabal 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.1% 0.08% MC
88 USA Larry Mize 4000 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.1% 0.08% MC
89 SCO Sandy Lyle 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.1% 0.08% MC
90 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T29
91 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T19
92 ARG Abel Gallegos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 11 @ 1/5 62.8% 4%
2 William Hill 9 @ 1/5 45.9% 5.8%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 10 @ 1/5 57.3% 6.7%
4 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 58.1% 7.3%
5 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 43.2% 11.5%
6 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 45.2% 13%
7 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 66.9% 13.3%
8 Betway 8 @ 1/5 54.1% 20%
9 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 45.4% 22.2%
10 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 47.4% 23.9%
11 VBet 7 @ 1/5 60% 34.6%
12 GentingBet 7 @ 1/5 60.6% 35.1%
13 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 62% 36.3%
14 Sport Nation 6 @ 1/5 51.9% 38.8%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 53.5% 40%
16 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 56% 42.5%
17 SportPesa 6 @ 1/5 58.4% 44.7%
18 Redzone 6 @ 1/5 59.4% 45.7%