Each Way Golf Betting Value Comparison
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In this article we explain how a simple comparison between 2 bookmakers e/w odds and terms can drastically change the payout of a bet.
Since it’s impossible to predict the winner every tournament, smart punters turn to value to increase their odds. Did you know you can increase your returns on a single bet by 3-10% just by picking the bookmaker with the best value? Over a series of bets, and time, this increase in value can be the difference between profiting and not.
We have over 300 members betting with the tips we provide at GolfForecast. The members with the fastest growing bankrolls are diligent in using the bookmakers we list as #1 for each tip. The members with 1 bookmaker, or a small selection, stunt their growth compared to the others.
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Compare the value of different each-way terms and odds
Which is better value:
a 28/1 bet paying 7 places at 1/5 odds
a 30/1 bet paying 5 places at 1/4 odds?
Bet 1
Bet 2
How to calculate the effective value
Imagine a tournament with 100 golfers, each with an equal chance of winning 1 in 100 (99/1 in fractional format) and you put a 1 point stake on every player.
The below table shows a breakdown of the profit you would make.
| 8 @ 1/5 | 6 @ 1/4 | 7 @ 1/5 | 5 @ 1/4 | 6 @ 1/5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payout for 1st place: | 60.4 | 62.88 | 60.4 | 62.88 | 60.4 |
| 2nd: | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 |
| 3rd: | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 |
| 4th: | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 |
| 5th: | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 |
| 6th: | 10.4 | 12.88 | 10.4 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 7th: | 10.4 | 0 | 10.4 | 0 | 0 |
| 8th: | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total (Effective value): | 133.2 | 127.27 | 122.8 | 114.4 | 112.4 |
| Profit: | 33.2% | 27.27% | 22.8% | 14.4% | 12.4% |
This of course is a vast over-simplification as from this breakdown you would be guaranteed to make profit by putting one point on every player. In fact, doing this, the opposite would be true; The bookies are guaranteed to make profit whoever wins. Thanks to their margins on the market, which for golf, average nearly 50%! We explain here.
Another reason for this counter-intuitive result is that there are usually more than 100 players in a golf event.
- Regular tour events: 156
- Masters: 90-100
- World Golf Championship: 78
- 2018 average size of field: 125
In a field of 100 equally likely to win golfers a 100/1 bet with each way terms of 1/5 odds paying 7 places has an effecitve value of 124/1 which is +24%
In a field of 156 the 156/1 bet with the same terms has an effecitve value of 191.2/1 which is a slightly worse increase of +22.56%
In a WGC with a field of 78 the effecitve value is 97.6/1 equivalent to an increase of +25.13%
Horse racing terms, for comparison
A typical horse racing each-way term is 4 places at 1/5. For a field of 15 horses with equal chance of winning the value table is as follows:
| 4 places @ 1/5 | |
|---|---|
| Payout for 1st place: | 9.4 |
| 2nd: | 1.9 |
| 3rd: | 1.9 |
| 4th: | 1.9 |
| Total (Effective value): | 15.1 |
| Profit: | 0.7% |
In Conclusion
Golf each-way betting terms are pretty generous!
Working out exactly which bets are the best value takes both time and know-how.
It can be complicated, but we at 
do all these calculations on the fly when working out which tips are the best value.
