Betting Market Analysis for RBC Heritage
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: yesterday
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 5/1 | 6.36% | -11% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 3.49% | -2.3% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 3.01% | -2.78% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 19/1 | 2.83% | -2.12% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 2.05% | -1.6% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 1.5% | -1.8% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 32/1 | 1.62% | -1.4% | |
| 8 |
| Russell Henley | 25 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.85% | 2.67% ≈ 36/1 | 2.17% | -0.5% | |
| 9 |
| Shane Lowry | 28 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.39% ≈ 41/1 | 1.89% | -0.5% | |
| 10 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 30 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.23% | 2.24% ≈ 44/1 | 1.99% | -0.25% | |
| 11 |
| Viktor Hovland | 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.04% ≈ 48/1 | 1.87% | -0.17% | |
| 12 |
| Sepp Straka | 40 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.69% ≈ 58/1 | 1.95% | 0.26% | |
| 13 |
| Sungjae Im | 40 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.69% ≈ 58/1 | 1.82% | 0.13% | |
| 14 |
| Jason Day | 40 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.69% ≈ 58/1 | 1.23% | -0.46% | |
| 15 |
| Jordan Spieth | 40 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.69% ≈ 58/1 | 0.85% | -0.84% | |
| 16 |
| Daniel Berger | 45 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.51% ≈ 65/1 | 1.03% | -0.48% | |
| 17 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.36% ≈ 72/1 | 1.85% | 0.49% | |
| 18 |
| Aaron Rai | 50 (Betway: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.36% ≈ 72/1 | 1.6% | 0.24% | |
| 19 |
| Wyndham Clark | 55 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.24% ≈ 80/1 | 1.81% | 0.57% | |
| 20 |
| Denny McCarthy | 55 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.24% ≈ 80/1 | 1.17% | -0.07% | |
| 21 |
| Keegan Bradley | 60 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 1.64% | 0.5% | |
| 22 |
| J.J Spaun | 60 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 1.58% | 0.44% | |
| 23 |
| Tony Finau | 60 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 1.2% | 0.06% | |
| 24 |
| Michael Kim | 60 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 1.18% | 0.05% | |
| 25 |
| Will Zalatoris | 60 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 0.73% | -0.4% | |
| 26 |
| Maverick McNealy | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.04% ≈ 95/1 | 1.83% | 0.8% | |
| 27 |
| Justin Rose | 66 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.04% ≈ 95/1 | 1.75% | 0.71% | |
| 28 |
| Minwoo Lee | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.04% ≈ 95/1 | 1.61% | 0.58% | |
| 29 |
| JT Poston | 66 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.04% ≈ 95/1 | 1.21% | 0.18% | |
| 30 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 70 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 0.98% ≈ 101/1 | 1.63% | 0.65% | |
| 31 |
| Davis Thompson | 70 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.41% | 0.98% ≈ 101/1 | 1.2% | 0.23% | |
| 32 |
| Brian Harman | 75 (Star Sports: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.32% | 0.91% ≈ 108/1 | 1.65% | 0.73% | |
| 33 |
| Sahith Theegala | 75 (PricedUp: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.32% | 0.91% ≈ 108/1 | 1.62% | 0.7% | |
| 34 |
| Harris English | 80 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.86% ≈ 116/1 | 1.29% | 0.43% | |
| 35 |
| Siwoo Kim | 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.86% ≈ 116/1 | 0.89% | 0.04% | |
| 36 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.86% ≈ 116/1 | 0.81% | -0.04% | |
| 37 |
| Bud Cauley | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.86% ≈ 116/1 | 0.63% | -0.23% | |
| 38 |
| Byeong Hun An | 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.76% ≈ 130/1 | 1.3% | 0.53% | |
| 39 |
| Tom Hoge | 90 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.76% ≈ 130/1 | 1.29% | 0.53% | |
| 40 |
| Sam Burns | 90 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.76% ≈ 130/1 | 1.19% | 0.43% | |
| 41 |
| Thomas Detry | 100 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.69% ≈ 144/1 | 1.57% | 0.88% | |
| 42 |
| Lucas Glover | 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.69% ≈ 144/1 | 1.43% | 0.75% | |
| 43 |
| Nick Taylor | 100 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.69% ≈ 144/1 | 1.39% | 0.7% | |
| 44 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 100 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.69% ≈ 144/1 | 1.28% | 0.59% | |
| 45 |
| Billy Horschel | 110 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.63% ≈ 159/1 | 1.75% | 1.12% | |
| 46 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 1.25% | 0.7% | |
| 47 |
| Andrew Novak | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 1.02% | 0.47% | |
| 48 |
| Joe Highsmith | 125 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 0.98% | 0.43% | |
| 49 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 0.97% | 0.42% | |
| 50 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 0.92% | 0.36% | |
| 51 |
| Max Homa | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 0.84% | 0.29% | |
| 52 |
| Gary Woodland | 125 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 0.64% | 0.09% | |
| 53 |
| Rickie Fowler | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.55% ≈ 180/1 | 0.56% | 0.01% | |
| 54 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 130 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.76% | 0.53% ≈ 188/1 | 0.88% | 0.35% | |
| 55 |
| Adam Scott | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.46% ≈ 216/1 | 1.31% | 0.85% | |
| 56 |
| Max Greyserman | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.46% ≈ 216/1 | 1.27% | 0.81% | |
| 57 |
| Ryan Gerard | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.46% ≈ 216/1 | 0.83% | 0.37% | |
| 58 |
| Eric Cole | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.43% ≈ 231/1 | 1.02% | 0.59% | |
| 59 |
| Samuel Stevens | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.43% ≈ 231/1 | 0.86% | 0.43% | |
| 60 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.39% ≈ 252/1 | 1.06% | 0.66% | |
| 61 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.39% ≈ 252/1 | 0.81% | 0.41% | |
| 62 |
| Matt Kuchar | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.39% ≈ 252/1 | 0.51% | 0.12% | |
| 63 |
| Cameron Young | 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 288/1 | 0.95% | 0.6% | |
| 64 |
| Austin Eckroat | 225 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 1.09% | 0.78% | |
| 65 |
| Cameron Davis | 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 360/1 | 1.01% | 0.73% | |
| 66 |
| Chris Kirk | 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 360/1 | 0.76% | 0.48% | |
| 67 |
| Adam Hadwin | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 504/1 | 0.76% | 0.57% | |
| 68 |
| Sami Valimaki | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 504/1 | 0.66% | 0.46% | |
| 69 |
| Nick Dunlap | 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.17% ≈ 576/1 | 0.96% | 0.79% | |
| 70 |
| Brian Campbell | 400 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.17% ≈ 576/1 | 0.7% | 0.52% | |
| 71 |
| Karl Vilips | 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.17% ≈ 576/1 | 0.49% | 0.32% | |
| 72 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.09% ≈ 1081/1 | 1.1% | 1.01% | |
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 29.5 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 16.8 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BoyleSports | 10 @ 1/5 | 94.7% | 28.5% |
| 2 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.4% | 29.1% |
| 3 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.5% | 29.2% |
| 4 | Spreadex | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.8% | 29.4% |
| 5 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.8% | 29.4% |
| 6 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.1% | 29.7% |
| 7 | Ladbrokes | 8 @ 1/5 | 73.9% | 31.5% |
| 8 | Coral | 8 @ 1/5 | 73.9% | 31.5% |
| 9 | AK Bets | 5 @ 1/5 | 35.3% | 31.8% |
| 10 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 51% | 32.2% |
| 11 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.9% | 33.1% |
| 12 | LiveScore Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.3% | 33.6% |
| 13 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.6% | 34.7% |
| 14 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.6% | 34.7% |
| 15 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 53.3% | 36.3% |
| 16 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.2% | 38% |
| 17 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.2% | 38% |
| 18 | Paddy Power | 6 @ 1/5 | 59.7% | 42% |
| 19 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 59.9% | 42.2% |
| 20 | Betfair Sportsbook | 6 @ 1/5 | 60.4% | 42.6% |
| 21 | QuinnBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 50.3% | 50.3% |