Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 260.0

Total Profit: +159.9

THE 149TH OPEN

15/07/2021 - 18/07/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 8 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 11.11% 7.89% 2.31% -5.58% T3
2 USA Brooks Koepka 16 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.18% 3.29% -0.89% T6
3 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.38% 2.2% -1.19% T26
4 USA Jordan Spieth 20 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.38% 2.14% -1.24% 2
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 22 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.09% 1.67% -1.42% T46
6 USA Justin Thomas 22 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.09% 1.31% -1.78% T40
7 USA Dustin Johnson 22 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.09% 0.81% -2.28% T8
8 USA Patrick Cantlay 33 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 1.77% -0.32% MC
9 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 33 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 1.62% -0.47% T26
10 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 1.57% -0.51% T12
11 USA Bryson DeChambeau 33 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 1.38% -0.71% T33
12 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 33 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 0.92% -1.17% MC
13 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 33 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 0.9% -1.19% T33
14 USA Patrick Reed 35 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 2% 0.03% MC 8.44
15 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 35 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 1.92% -0.05% T3 (tied w/2) 8.44 +33.8
16 USA Collin Morikawa 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.73% 2.13% 0.4% 1 7.41 +185.2
17 ENG Paul Casey 45 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 1.92% 0.38% T15 6.61
18 USA Tony Finau 45 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 1.7% 0.15% T15 6.61
19 IRL Shane Lowry 45 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 0.97% -0.58% T12
20 USA Scottie Scheffler 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.53% 0.14% T8 (tied w/4) 5.96 +8.2
21 USA Daniel Berger 50 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.36% -0.04% T8 (tied w/4) 5.96 +32.8
22 AUS Cameron Smith 60 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 0.96% -0.21% T33
23 AUS Marc Leishman 60 (888Sport: 9 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 0.94% -0.22% MC
24 ENG Lee Westwood 60 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 0.84% -0.32% T59
25 ENG Justin Rose 60 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 0.81% -0.35% T46
26 MEX Abraham Ancer 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.46% 0.4% T59 4.54
27 USA Will Zalatoris 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.12% 0.06% WD 4.54
28 USA Harris English 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.01% -0.05% T46 4.54
29 CHI Joaquin Niemann 70 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.9% -0.1% T59
30 ESP Sergio Garcia 70 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.79% -0.21% T19
31 USA Webb Simpson 70 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.64% -0.36% T19
32 RSA Branden Grace 70 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.59% -0.41% MC
33 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.88% 0.01% T26 3.76
34 SCO Robert MacIntyre 80 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.69% -0.19% T8
35 AUS Jason Day 80 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.62% -0.25% MC
36 USA Rickie Fowler 80 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.51% -0.37% T53
37 USA Phil Mickelson 80 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.47% -0.41% MC
38 SWE Alexander Noren 90 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.87% 0.09% MC 3.34
39 AUS Lucas Herbert 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.86% 0.08% MC 3.34
40 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.74% -0.04% T53 3.34
41 USA Jason Kokrak 100 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 1.86% 1.15% T26 3.01
42 RSA Garrick Higgo 100 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.77% 0.06% MC 3.01
43 AUS Adam Scott 100 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.62% -0.08% T46
44 BEL Thomas Detry 110 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.64% 0.71% 0.07% MC 2.74
45 USA Brian Harman 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.28% 0.71% T19 2.42
46 USA Sam Burns 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.26% 0.7% T76 2.42
47 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.22% 0.66% T15 2.42
48 ENG Matt Wallace 125 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.86% 0.29% T40 2.42
49 USA Russell Henley 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.84% 0.28% MC 2.42
50 USA Stewart Cink 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.79% 0.22% MC 2.42
51 AUS Minwoo Lee 125 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.51% -0.06% MC
52 ITA Francesco Molinari 140 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.5% 0.81% 0.3% MC
53 USA Ryan Palmer 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.5% 0.76% 0.26% MC
54 GER Martin Kaymer 140 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.5% 0.45% -0.05% MC
55 USA Max Homa 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.22% 0.75% T40
56 ITA Guido Migliozzi 150 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.12% 0.65% MC
57 USA Charley Hoffman 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.1% 0.62% MC
58 ENG Richard Bland 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.8% 0.33% T67
59 USA Keegan Bradley 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.75% 0.28% MC
60 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 150 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.65% 0.18% T59
61 USA Gary Woodland 150 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.65% 0.18% MC
62 USA Kevin Kisner 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.51% 0.04% 73
63 FRA Victor Perez 150 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.47% 0% MC
64 USA Billy Horschel 175 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% T53
65 USA Kevin Streelman 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.83% 0.42% T19
66 IRL Padraig Harrington 175 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.55% 0.15% 72
67 ARG Emiliano Grillo 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.7% 0.35% T12
68 ENG Sam Horsfield 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.48% 0.13% T67
69 ENG Andy Sullivan 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.4% 0.05% T26
70 USA Matt Kuchar 200 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.4% 0.05% MC
71 ENG Danny Willett 200 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% T33
72 RSA Erik van Rooyen 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.29% -0.07% MC
73 USA Cameron Tringale 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.81% 0.53% T26
74 USA Harold Varner III 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.78% 0.5% MC
75 AUS Matt Jones 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% MC
76 FRA Antoine Rozner 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.68% 0.4% T59
77 AUS Jason Scrivener 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.64% 0.36% MC
78 MEX Carlos Ortiz 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.58% 0.3% MC
79 USA Chris Kirk 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.57% 0.28% MC
80 USA Brendon Todd 250 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.56% 0.28% MC
81 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 250 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.41% 0.12% MC
82 AUT Matthias Schwab 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.05% MC
83 SWE Henrik Stenson 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.18% -0.11% MC
84 USA Lucas Glover 275 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.36% 0.26% 0.85% 0.59% MC
85 RSA Justin Harding 300 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.6% 0.37% T19
86 USA Brendan Steele 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.51% 0.28% T67
87 COL Sebastian Munoz 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.49% 0.25% MC
88 USA Mackenzie Hughes 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.48% 0.25% T6
89 USA Lanto Griffin 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.47% 0.24% T33
90 NZL Ryan Fox 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.47% 0.24% T67
91 USA Chez Reavie 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.42% 0.19% T59
92 USA Brandt Snedeker 300 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.13% T19
93 ENG Aaron Rai 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% T19
94 USA Joel Dahmen 300 (Boyle Sports: 12 @ 1/6) 0.33% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% T46
95 RSA Dylan Frittelli 300 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.32% 0.09% 5
96 USA John Catlin 300 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.31% 0.08% MC
97 NED Joost Luiten 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% MC
98 JPN Takumi Kanaya 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.24% 0% MC
99 USA Talor Gooch 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.68% 0.5% T33
100 USA Kurt Kitayama 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.66% 0.48% MC
101 RSA Dean Burmester 400 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.54% 0.36% T40
102 CAN Adam Hadwin 400 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.39% 0.21% MC
103 USA Johannes Veerman 400 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.37% 0.19% T46
104 USA Keith Mitchell 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% MC
105 TPE C.T. Pan 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.31% 0.14% MC
106 ENG Marcus Armitage 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.27% 0.09% T53
107 KOR Byeong Hun An 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.23% 0.05% T26
108 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 400 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.19% 0.02% MC
109 RSA Shaun Norris 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.46% 0.32% MC
110 USA Chan Kim 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.42% 0.28% T53
111 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
112 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% MC
113 ENG Paul Waring 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
114 ENG Jack Senior 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% T67
115 USA Adam Long 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% MC
116 THA Jazz Janewattananond 500 (GentingBet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.08% T46
117 FRA Benjamin Hebert 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% T33
118 FRA Romain Langasque 500 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.15% 0.01% MC
119 ESP Jorge Campillo 500 (GentingBet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.04% MC
120 SWE Marcus Kinhult 500 (GentingBet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.08% -0.06% MC
121 RSA JC Ritchie 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.08% -0.06% T40
122 SWE Rikard Karlberg 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.33% 0.21% MC
123 GER Matthias Schmid 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.16% 0.05% T59
124 RSA Ernie Els 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.07% -0.05% MC
125 JPN Yuki Inamori 750 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.4% 0.3% MC
126 USA Cole Hammer 750 (VBet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.07% -0.02% MC
127 GER Marcel Schneider 1000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.18% 0.11% MC
128 ENG Richard Mansell 1000 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.16% 0.09% T74
129 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 1000 (888Sport: 9 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.01% MC
130 RSA Jaco Ahlers 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% MC
131 NIR Darren Clarke 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% MC
132 THA Poom Saksansin 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% T76
133 JPN Ryosuke Kinoshita 1000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% T59
134 NZL Daniel Hillier 1000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% MC
135 CHN Lin YuxinAm) 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% T74
136 JPN Ryutaro Nagano 1250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.08% 0.06% 0.07% 0.01% MC
137 AUS Brad Kennedy 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.11% 0.06% MC
138 AUS Deyen Lawson 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.08% 0.03% MC
139 ENG Joe Long 1500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.07% 0.03% MC
140 CAN Richard T Lee 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.07% 0.02% MC
141 AUS Aaron Pike 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.07% 0.02% MC
142 ENG Jonathan Thomson 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.07% 0.02% T53
143 COL Ricardo Celia 2000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.07% 0.03% MC
144 ENG Nicholas Poppleton 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.07% 0.03% MC
145 ARG Abel Gallegos 2500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04% MC
146 ENG Ben Hutchinson 2500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04% MC
147 USA Troy Merritt 0% 0% 0.66% 0% MC
148 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0.28% 0% T40
149 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0.11% 0% MC
150 ENG Laird Shepherd 0% 0% 0.07% 0% MC
151 ENG Sam Bairstow 0% 0% 0.07% 0% MC
152 DEN Christoffer Bring 0% 0% 0.07% 0% MC
153 ENG Sam Forgan 0% 0% 0.07% 0% MC
154 ENG Connor Worsdall 0% 0% 0.07% 0% MC
155 ENG Daniel Croft 0% 0% 0.07% 0% MC
156 GER Marcel Siem 0% 0% 0.06% 0% T15

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 11 @ 1/5 67.5% 6.1%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 10 @ 1/5 64.5% 10.9%
3 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 44.2% 11.7%
4 Betfred 10 @ 1/5 65.9% 11.7%
5 William Hill 9 @ 1/5 57.6% 13.5%
6 Paddy Power 12 @ 1/6 74.3% 17.7%
7 Boyle Sports 12 @ 1/6 77.3% 19.6%
8 888Sport 9 @ 1/5 68.6% 21.6%
9 Mansion Bet 8 @ 1/5 58.2% 22.6%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 37.2% 25%
11 VBet 8 @ 1/5 62.3% 25.9%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 26.7%
13 GentingBet 8 @ 1/5 64.5% 27.5%
14 Betway 8 @ 1/5 67% 29.5%
15 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 58.1% 32.4%
16 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 57.9% 40.9%
17 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 58.2% 41.1%
18 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 58.2% 41.1%
19 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 73% 45.4%