Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 33.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 288.6

Total Profit: +188.5

THE MASTERS

08/04/2021 - 11/04/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 9 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 10% 7.02% 2.91% -4.11% MC
2 USA Jordan Spieth 10 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.38% 2.04% -4.34% T3
3 ESP Jon Rahm 11 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.85% 2.65% -3.2% T5
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 11 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.85% 2.28% -3.57% T46
5 USA Justin Thomas 12 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.4% 2.53% -2.87% T21
6 NIR Rory McIlroy 18 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.69% 2.32% -1.37% MC
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 18 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.69% 1.81% -1.88% MC
8 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.05% 1.76% -1.29% T3
9 USA Patrick Reed 28 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 1.79% -0.63% T8
10 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 1.02% -1.4% MC
11 USA Daniel Berger 30 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.26% 2.21% -0.05% MC
12 USA Collin Morikawa 30 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.26% 1.38% -0.88% T18
13 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 2.15% 0.09% T21
14 USA Webb Simpson 33 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 2.15% 0.09% T12
15 USA Tony Finau 33 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 1.92% -0.14% T10
16 KOR Sungjae Im 35 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.95% 1.79% -0.16% MC
17 ENG Paul Casey 40 (Sporting Index: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.71% 2.31% 0.6% T26 7.61
18 AUS Cameron Smith 40 (Sporting Index: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.71% 1.7% -0.01% T10
19 ENG Lee Westwood 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.59% -0.12% MC
20 CHI Joaquin Niemann 45 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 1.93% 0.41% T40 6.78
21 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 45 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 1.67% 0.15% 1 6.78 +189.8
22 AUS Jason Day 45 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 0.7% -0.83% MC
23 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 2.02% 0.65% T18 6.12
24 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.96% 0.58% T34 6.12
25 USA Scottie Scheffler 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.37% -0.01% T18
26 ESP Sergio Garcia 55 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.25% 2.14% 0.89% MC 5.57
27 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 55 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.25% 1.95% 0.7% T46 5.57
28 CAN Corey Conners 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 2.03% 0.98% T8 (tied w/2) 4.66 +33.1
29 MEX Abraham Ancer 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.62% 0.57% T26 4.66
30 USA Will Zalatoris 66 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.31% 0.26% 2 4.66 +33.1
31 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 66 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.95% -0.1% T26
32 AUS Adam Scott 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.84% -0.21% 54
33 USA Bubba Watson 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.92% 1.37% 0.44% T26 4.11
34 USA Billy Horschel 80 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.77% 0.9% T50 3.85
35 USA Max Homa 80 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.51% 0.65% MC 3.85
36 USA Jason Kokrak 90 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 2.03% 1.26% 49 3.43
37 ENG Justin Rose 90 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.92% 0.15% 7 3.43 +32.6
38 USA Matthew Wolff 90 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.38% -0.39% DQ
39 USA Brian Harman 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.73% 1.03% T12 3.09
40 AUS Marc Leishman 100 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.72% 0.03% T5
41 USA Matt Kuchar 100 (Sporting Index: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.69% 0.56% -0.14% MC
42 USA Ryan Palmer 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.78% 1.22% T34 2.48
43 USA Kevin Kisner 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.63% 1.07% MC 2.48
44 FRA Victor Perez 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.5% 0.95% MC 2.48
45 USA Harris English 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.43% 0.87% T21 2.48
46 IRL Shane Lowry 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.98% 0.43% T21 2.48
47 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.95% 0.39% T12 2.48
48 ENG Matt Wallace 125 (10Bet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.83% 0.27% T34 2.48
49 ITA Francesco Molinari 125 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.76% 0.2% 52 2.48
50 ENG Ian Poulter 125 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.65% 0.09% T26
51 USA Gary Woodland 125 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.38% -0.17% T40
52 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.5% 1.85% 1.36% T40
53 AUS Matt Jones 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 1.26% 0.79% T26
54 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.98% 0.51% MC
55 USA Phil Mickelson 150 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.19% -0.28% T21
56 SCO Robert MacIntyre 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.44% 1.82% 1.38% T12
57 USA Kevin Na 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% T12
58 MEX Carlos Ortiz 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 1.29% 0.89% MC
59 USA Lanto Griffin 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.84% 0.49% MC
60 ENG Danny Willett 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.42% 0.07% MC
61 USA Cameron Champ 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.4% 0.05% T26
62 USA Zach Johnson 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.31% 0.51% 0.2% MC
63 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 1.01% 0.73% T40
64 USA Brendon Todd 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.61% 0.33% T46
65 TPE C.T. Pan 250 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.49% 0.21% MC
66 USA Michael Thompson 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.79% 0.55% T34
67 RSA Charl Schwartzel 300 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.25% 0.02% T26
68 USA Mackenzie Hughes 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.47% 0.27% T40
69 USA Stewart Cink 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.31% 0.13% T12
70 SCO Martin Laird 400 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.27% 0.09% T38
71 USA Robert Streb 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.82% 0.68% MC
72 SWE Henrik Stenson 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% T38
73 USA Hudson Swafford 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
74 USA Jimmy Walker 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.42% 0.3% MC
75 GER Bernhard Langer 750 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.92% 0.82% MC
76 USA Brian Gay 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.31% 0.24% MC
77 USA Fred Couples 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
78 USA Jim Herman 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% 53
79 ENG Joe Long 1500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.08% 0.03% MC
80 FIJ Vijay Singh 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.08% 0.03% MC
81 CAN Mike Weir 2500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.42% 0.4% MC
82 ESP Jose M Olazabal 5000 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.09% 0.07% T50
83 USA Larry Mize 5000 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.09% 0.07% MC
84 SCO Sandy Lyle 5000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.09% 0.07% MC
85 WAL Ian Woosnam 5000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.07% 0.06% MC
86 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T40
87 USA Ollie Osborne 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
88 USA Ty Strafaci 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 33.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 9 @ 1/5 41.4% 2.2%
2 Skybet 11 @ 1/5 68.4% 7.1%
3 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 39.2% 8.1%
4 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 45.3% 12.9%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 10 @ 1/5 68% 13.7%
6 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 68.3% 14%
7 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 69.3% 14.7%
8 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/4 45.5% 17.5%
9 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 42% 19.1%
10 Betway 8 @ 1/5 55.7% 21%
11 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 60.8% 25%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 40.5% 28.2%
13 Sport Nation 7 @ 1/5 57.3% 32.1%
14 Mansion Bet 7 @ 1/5 57.3% 32.1%
15 GentingBet 7 @ 1/5 58.3% 32.8%
16 Redzone 7 @ 1/5 58.3% 32.9%
17 10Bet 7 @ 1/5 58.9% 33.4%
18 VBet 7 @ 1/5 59.2% 33.7%
19 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 61.6% 35.8%