Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 211.7

Total Profit: +111.5

WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play

27/03/2019 - 30/03/2019

Up to date as of: 6 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 8 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.42% 3.89% -4.53% T9
2 USA Dustin Johnson 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.31% 4.3% -2.02% T40
3 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.05% 2.98% -2.07% T24
4 ESP Jon Rahm 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.46% 2.44% -2.01% T24
5 ENG Justin Rose 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.99% 2.5% -1.49% T9
6 USA Brooks Koepka 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.99% 2.4% -1.58% T56
7 ITA Francesco Molinari 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.61% 1.51% -2.1% 3
8 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.29% 3.11% -0.18% T24
9 AUS Jason Day 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.29% 2.69% -0.6% T61
10 ENG Paul Casey 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.29% 2.06% -1.23% T9
11 USA Bryson DeChambeau 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 2.07% -0.85% T40
12 USA Bubba Watson 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.61% 1.95% -0.66% T40
13 USA Tiger Woods 30 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.44% 1.88% -0.56% T5
14 USA Tony Finau 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.44% 1.03% -1.41% T40
15 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.23% 2.43% 0.21% T5
16 USA Xander Schauffele 40 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 2.73% 0.88% T24 8.19
17 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 1.94% 0.09% T17
18 USA Matt Kuchar 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.85% 0% 2
19 USA Patrick Cantlay 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.65% 2.45% 0.8% T24 7.3
20 USA Webb Simpson 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.65% 2.13% 0.48% T56 7.3
21 ESP Sergio Garcia 45 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 1.92% 0.27% T5
22 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 2.14% 0.65% T9 6.58
23 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 50 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.82% 0.33% T24 6.58
24 USA Jordan Spieth 55 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 0.56% -0.79% T24
25 USA Gary Woodland 60 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 2.64% 1.4% T17 5.5
26 USA Patrick Reed 60 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.58% 0.34% T24 5.5
27 USA Keegan Bradley 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.67% 0.54% T40 5.01
28 USA Billy Horschel 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.59% 0.46% T24 5.01
29 AUS Cameron Smith 66 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.01% -0.12% T61
30 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 70 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.07% 1.65% 0.58% T24 4.73
31 USA Charles Howell III 80 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 2.11% 1.18% T24 4.15
32 SWE Henrik Stenson 80 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.74% 0.8% T9 4.15
33 USA Phil Mickelson 80 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.66% 0.72% T40 4.15
34 ENG Matt Wallace 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.57% 0.63% T40 4.15
35 USA Kevin Kisner 80 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.53% 0.59% 1 4.15 +211.7
36 USA Brandt Snedeker 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.09% 0.16% T24
37 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 80 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.96% 0.02% T61
38 USA Jim Furyk 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.7% 0.94% T17 3.33
39 SCO Russell Knox 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.29% 0.54% T40 3.33
40 ENG Eddie Pepperell 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.87% 0.12% T56
41 USA Keith Mitchell 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.78% 0.03% T40
42 SWE Alexander Noren 100 (Ladbrokes: 4 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.46% -0.29% T17
43 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 110 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1% 0.32% T40 3.03
44 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 110 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.72% 0.04% T9
45 ENG Lee Westwood 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.61% 1.01% T56 2.67
46 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1% 0.4% T61 2.67
47 MEX Abraham Ancer 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.94% 0.34% T17 2.67
48 RSA Branden Grace 125 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.87% 0.27% T9
49 USA Luke List 125 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.86% 0.26% T40
50 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.65% 0.05% T40
51 IRL Shane Lowry 140 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.72% 0.19% T24
52 USA J.B. Holmes 150 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.07% 0.57% T17
53 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.84% 0.34% 4
54 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.5% 0% T40
55 USA Aaron Wise 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.56% 0.13% T40
56 USA Kevin Na 200 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.57% 0.19% T5
57 RSA Justin Harding 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.94% 0.64% T17
58 USA Chez Reavie 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.89% 0.59% T56
59 ENG Tom Lewis 250 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.68% 0.38% T24
60 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.63% 0.33% T24
61 USA Kyle Stanley 250 (Unibet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.51% 0.21% T24
62 USA Andrew Putnam 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 1.18% 0.92% T40
63 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 1.42% 0% T9
64 KOR Byeong Hun An 0% 0% 1.15% 0% T40

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...