Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 103.2

Total Profit: +3.1

U.S. PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

20/05/2021 - 23/05/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 10 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.33% 1.23% -5.1% T49
2 USA Jordan Spieth 14 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.64% 1.76% -2.88% T30
3 ESP Jon Rahm 14 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.64% 1.52% -3.12% T8
4 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.64% 1.48% -3.16% MC
5 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.64% 1.48% -3.16% T38
6 USA Dustin Johnson 16 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.09% 0.94% -3.15% MC
7 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.03% 1.07% -1.95% MC
8 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.68% 2.49% -0.19% T30
9 USA Collin Morikawa 30 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.25% 1.47% -0.78% T8
10 USA Daniel Berger 30 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.25% 1.37% -0.88% T75
11 USA Tony Finau 33 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.05% 1.48% -0.57% T8
12 USA Patrick Reed 33 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.05% 1.3% -0.75% T17
13 USA Patrick Cantlay 40 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.7% 1.48% -0.21% T23
14 USA Webb Simpson 40 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.7% 1.32% -0.38% T30
15 USA Scottie Scheffler 40 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.7% 0.93% -0.77% T8
16 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.7% 0.78% -0.91% T23
17 USA Brooks Koepka 40 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.7% 0.73% -0.97% T2
18 AUS Cameron Smith 45 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.51% 1.32% -0.19% T59 6.74
19 MEX Abraham Ancer 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.36% 2.02% 0.66% T8 (tied w/9) 6.08 +3.7
20 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.36% 1.29% -0.08% T38 6.08
21 USA Will Zalatoris 50 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.36% 1.06% -0.3% T8
22 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 55 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.24% 1.5% 0.26% T23 5.54
23 USA Sam Burns 55 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.24% 0.98% -0.26% WD
24 AUS Marc Leishman 55 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.24% 0.85% -0.39% MC
25 CAN Corey Conners 60 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.14% 1.92% 0.78% T17 5.09
26 CHI Joaquin Niemann 60 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.14% 1.67% 0.53% T30 5.09
27 ENG Paul Casey 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.04% 1.39% 0.35% T4 (tied w/4) 4.63 +32.9
28 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 66 (Sporting Index: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.04% 1.35% 0.31% MC 4.63
29 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.04% 1.2% 0.16% T2 (tied w/2) 4.63 +32.9
30 KOR Sungjae Im 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.04% 1.2% 0.16% T17 4.63
31 IRL Shane Lowry 80 (Sporting Index: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.86% 0.99% 0.13% T4 (tied w/4) 3.83 +30.2
32 ESP Sergio Garcia 80 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.86% 0.62% -0.24% MC
33 USA Keegan Bradley 90 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.76% 1.49% 0.73% T17 3.41
34 ENG Justin Rose 90 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.76% 0.69% -0.08% T8 (tied w/9) 3.41 +3.6
35 ENG Matt Wallace 100 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.89% 1.21% T55 3.07
36 USA Brian Harman 100 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.85% 1.16% MC 3.07
37 USA Harris English 100 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.11% 0.42% T64 3.07
38 USA Jason Kokrak 100 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.1% 0.41% T49 3.07
39 USA Bubba Watson 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.83% 0.14% 80 3.07
40 AUS Adam Scott 100 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.64% -0.05% MC 3.07
41 USA Gary Woodland 100 (Mansion Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.58% -0.11% T38 3.07
42 RSA Charl Schwartzel 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.45% -0.24% MC
43 AUS Jason Day 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.24% -0.39% T44
44 AUS Matt Jones 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.55% 1.6% 1.05% T30 2.47
45 ENG Lee Westwood 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.55% 1.28% 0.73% T71 2.47
46 USA Cameron Tringale 125 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.55% 1.23% 0.68% MC 2.47
47 RSA Garrick Higgo 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.55% 0.84% 0.29% T64 2.47
48 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.55% 0.63% 0.07% MC 2.47
49 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.55% 0.54% -0.01% T55 2.47
50 USA Billy Horschel 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.49% 1.64% 1.14% T23
51 USA Matt Kuchar 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.49% 0.67% 0.17% MC
52 USA Stewart Cink 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 1.3% 0.84% T30
53 USA Max Homa 150 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 1.26% 0.8% MC
54 USA Kevin Na 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 1.01% 0.55% MC
55 USA Ryan Palmer 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 1.01% 0.55% MC
56 SCO Robert MacIntyre 150 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.91% 0.45% T49
57 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.85% 0.39% T38
58 USA Charley Hoffman 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.81% 0.35% T17
59 USA Rickie Fowler 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.2% -0.27% T8
60 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 1.48% 1.08% T30
61 USA Chris Kirk 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 1.34% 0.94% MC
62 BEL Thomas Pieters 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.3% -0.1% MC
63 FRA Victor Perez 200 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.96% 0.61% MC
64 RSA Branden Grace 200 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.82% 0.48% T38
65 USA Kevin Streelman 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.76% 0.42% T8
66 MEX Carlos Ortiz 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.75% 0.4% T55
67 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.73% 0.39% MC
68 USA Russell Henley 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.68% 0.33% T71
69 AUS Cameron Davis 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.57% 0.22% T59
70 ENG Ian Poulter 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.39% 0.04% T30
71 USA Aaron Wise 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.38% 0.03% T17
72 USA Cameron Champ 200 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.21% -0.14% MC
73 USA Brendon Todd 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% MC
74 USA Lanto Griffin 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.67% 0.39% MC
75 USA Talor Gooch 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.45% 0.17% T44
76 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% MC
77 USA Kevin Kisner 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.38% 0.1% MC
78 USA Phil Mickelson 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.05% 1
79 USA Joel Dahmen 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.32% 0.05% T55
80 USA Zach Johnson 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.3% 0.02% MC
81 COL Sebastian Munoz 275 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.36% 0.25% 0.29% 0.04% MC
82 FRA Antoine Rozner 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.92% 0.69% MC
83 USA Harold Varner III 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.48% 0.24% T49
84 USA Mackenzie Hughes 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.43% 0.2% MC
85 USA Steve Stricker 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.43% 0.2% T44
86 ENG Danny Willett 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.36% 0.13% T64
87 CAN Adam Hadwin 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.36% 0.13% T64
88 USA Wyndham Clark 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.35% 0.12% T75
89 USA Brendan Steele 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.94% 0.74% 77
90 RSA Dean Burmester 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.55% 0.35% T59
91 USA Maverick McNealy 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.42% 0.22% MC
92 USA John Catlin 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.32% 0.12% MC
93 GER Martin Kaymer 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% MC
94 SCO Martin Laird 350 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.27% 0.07% T23
95 RSA Dylan Frittelli 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.23% 0.03% MC
96 BEL Thomas Detry 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.22% 0.02% MC
97 SWE Henrik Stenson 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.19% -0.01% T64
98 USA Kurt Kitayama 400 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.63% 0.45% MC
99 ENG Tom Lewis 400 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.35% 0.17% T71
100 KOR Byeong Hun An 400 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.19% 0.01% T49
101 USA Tom Hoge 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.84% 0.7% T64
102 RSA Brandon Stone 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.73% 0.59% MC
103 USA Chan Kim 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.59% 0.45% T23
104 USA Adam Long 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.45% 0.32% MC
105 FIN Kalle Samooja 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% MC
106 ENG Andy Sullivan 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% MC
107 USA Denny McCarthy 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% T59
108 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% 79
109 RSA George Coetzee 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% MC
110 JPN Takumi Kanaya 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.32% 0.18% MC
111 RSA Erik van Rooyen 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.16% MC
112 USA JT Poston 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
113 ENG Sam Horsfield 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% T49
114 THA Jazz Janewattananond 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% MC
115 FIN Sami Valimaki 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
116 USA Peter Malnati 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
117 ENG Aaron Rai 500 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
118 USA Harry Higgs 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% T4
119 USA Jason Dufner 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% MC
120 USA Chez Reavie 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.13% -0.01% MC
121 AUS Lucas Herbert 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.02% T71
122 USA Richy Werenski 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.33% 0.22% T38
123 IRL Padraig Harrington 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.22% 0.11% T4
124 USA Robert Streb 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.16% 0.05% T59
125 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.06% -0.05% MC
126 USA Jimmy Walker 750 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% T64
127 USA Hudson Swafford 750 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.18% 0.09% MC
128 USA Brian Gay 750 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.1% 0.01% 81
129 AUS Jason Scrivener 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.64% 0.57% T23
130 USA Jim Herman 1250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.08% 0.06% 0.1% 0.04% MC
131 USA John Daly 2000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.09% 0.05% MC
132 KOR Y.E. Yang 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.07% 0.03% DQ
133 USA Alexander Beach 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.05% MC
134 USA Tyler Collet 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.05% MC
135 USA Omar Uresti 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.05% MC
136 USA Daniel Balin 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
137 USA Benjamin Polland 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
138 USA Sonny Skinner 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
139 USA Rich Beem 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
140 USA Shaun Micheel 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
141 USA Rob Labritz 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
142 USA Frank Bensel 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% MC
143 USA Benjamin Cook 4000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% T44
144 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T44
145 USA Brandon Hagy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 USA Stuart Smith(USA) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 USA Brad Marek 0% 0% 0% 0% 78
148 USA Greg Koch 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 USA Brett Walker 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 USA Pete Ballo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 USA Mark Geddes 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 USA Tim Pearce 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 USA Patrick Rada 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 USA Larkin Gross 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 USA Joseph Summerhays 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Derek Holmes 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 10 @ 1/5 61.4% 8.8%
2 Skybet 11 @ 1/5 72.5% 9.2%
3 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 41% 9.2%
4 William Hill 9 @ 1/5 55.5% 12%
5 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 70.1% 14.7%
6 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 70.8% 15.1%
7 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/4 49.3% 20.2%
8 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 57.5% 22%
9 Betway 8 @ 1/5 63.5% 26.7%
10 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 54.2% 29.2%
11 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 66.8% 29.3%
12 GentingBet 8 @ 1/5 67.1% 29.5%
13 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 45.4% 32.5%
14 Mansion Bet 8 @ 1/5 72.1% 33.5%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 33.8%
16 VBet 8 @ 1/5 75.6% 36.1%
17 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 71.8% 44.1%
18 Redzone 7 @ 1/5 75.8% 47.4%
19 10Bet 7 @ 1/5 76.3% 47.7%