Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 30.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 43.7

Total Profit: -56.4

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD

22/10/2020 - 25/10/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.97% 3.76% -3.21% T2
2 USA Xander Schauffele 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.39% 3.94% -2.45% T17
3 USA Justin Thomas 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.9% 3.33% -2.57% T2
4 NIR Rory McIlroy 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.9% 1.96% -3.94% T17
5 USA Webb Simpson 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.04% 2.94% -1.09% T17
6 USA Collin Morikawa 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.65% 3.87% 0.22% T50
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.65% 3.55% -0.11% T28
8 USA Patrick Reed 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.33% 2.71% -0.63% T14
9 NOR Viktor Hovland 30 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.47% 2.31% -0.16% T47
10 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.47% 1.76% -0.72% T28
11 USA Patrick Cantlay 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.47% 1.35% -1.13% 1
12 USA Matthew Wolff 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.26% 2.84% 0.59% T50 9.85
13 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.26% 2.7% 0.45% T26 9.85
14 USA Tony Finau 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.26% 2.34% 0.08% T11
15 USA Bubba Watson 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.26% 1.53% -0.73% T4
16 USA Tiger Woods 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.26% 0.64% -1.62% T72
17 USA Daniel Berger 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.13% 3.92% 1.79% T17 9.3
18 USA Harris English 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.13% 2.87% 0.74% T28 9.3
19 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.87% 2.28% 0.41% T57 8.17
20 CHI Joaquin Niemann 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.87% 1.86% -0.01% T17
21 USA Scottie Scheffler 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 1.46% -0.2% T17
22 KOR Sungjae Im 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 1.32% -0.34% T41
23 USA Jason Kokrak 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.5% 3.02% 1.51% T17 6.57
24 USA Russell Henley 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.65% 0.15% T4 (tied w/4) 6.57 +22.2
25 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.37% 2.58% 1.21% T35 5.98
26 AUS Jason Day 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.37% 1.21% -0.16% T60
27 USA Rickie Fowler 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.37% 0.6% -0.77% T57
28 AUS Cameron Smith 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 0.77% -0.37% T4
29 USA Phil Mickelson 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 0.5% -0.65% 76
30 ENG Paul Casey 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.08% 1.17% 0.09% T35 4.72
31 USA Billy Horschel 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 1.84% 0.89% 69 4.14
32 USA Brendon Todd 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1.03% 0.19% T47 3.68
33 USA Kevin Kisner 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.64% 0.88% T14 3.32
34 USA Brian Harman 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.38% 0.62% T26 3.32
35 USA Kevin Na 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.16% 0.4% T28 3.32
36 ENG Justin Rose 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 0.95% 0.19% T17 3.32
37 USA Jordan Spieth 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.79% 0.03% T41
38 USA Gary Woodland 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 0.73% -0.03% WD
39 USA Ryan Palmer 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 1.85% 1.16% T4 (tied w/4) 3.02 +21.5
40 USA Lanto Griffin 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 1.03% 0.34% T11 3.02
41 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.76% 0.15% T8 2.66
42 USA Talor Gooch 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.67% 0.06% T35
43 USA Matt Kuchar 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.6% 0% T54
44 USA Kevin Streelman 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 1.26% 0.72% T28
45 USA Cameron Champ 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.6% 0.06% T8
46 SWE Alexander Noren 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.91% 1.4% T17
47 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.37% 0.86% T41
48 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.01% 0.51% T63
49 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.91% 0.4% T8
50 USA Harry Higgs 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.69% 0.21% T54
51 KOR Byeong Hun An 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.5% 0.03% T35
52 AUS Marc Leishman 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.4% -0.08% T70
53 USA Brendan Steele 175 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.74% 0.3% T70
54 NZL Danny Lee 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.64% 0.21% T72
55 USA Tyler Duncan 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.1% 0.72% T28
56 USA Adam Long 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.01% 0.63% T66
57 RSA Dylan Frittelli 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.89% 0.58% T11
58 USA Mark Hubbard 250 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.83% 0.53% T41
59 JPN Takumi Kanaya 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.11% -0.16% T41
60 USA Tom Hoge 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.54% 0.29% T47
61 MEX Carlos Ortiz 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.34% 0.08% T35
62 USA Richy Werenski 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.91% 0.69% T57
63 JPN Shugo Imahira 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.37% 0.15% T66
64 USA Andrew Landry 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.37% 0.15% T50
65 USA Michael Thompson 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.56% 0.37% 77
66 CAN Nick Taylor 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.1% T63
67 THA Jazz Janewattananond 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.1% T60
68 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T63
69 USA Chan Kim 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T60
70 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T35
71 AUS Brad Kennedy 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.1% -0.05% T41
72 JPN Mikumu Horikawa 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.1% -0.05% T66
73 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.1% -0.05% T72
74 RSA Shaun Norris 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.14% 0.01% T28
75 THA Gunn Charoenkul 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.1% -0.02% T54
76 JPN Naoki Sekito 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 75
77 USA Jim Herman 0% 0% 0% 0% T50
78 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T14

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 30.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 34.3% 19.9%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.8% 21.5%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 45.5% 22%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 45.5% 22%
5 GentingBet 7 @ 1/5 48.4% 24.5%
6 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 49.3% 25.3%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 41.2% 26.1%
8 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 55.4% 30.5%
9 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 43.5% 30.9%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 44% 31.4%
11 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 45.1% 32.4%
12 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 32.5%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 32.5%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 32.5%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 32.5%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 46.4% 33.6%
17 Betway 6 @ 1/5 49% 35.9%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 49.5% 36.4%