Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 22.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 24.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100

BMW Championship

27/08/2020 - 30/08/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 8 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 9.04% 3.99% -5.05% 2
2 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 9.09% 7.4% 2.04% -5.36% 1
3 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.42% 3.15% -2.27% T25
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.42% 3.03% -2.39% 50
5 USA Xander Schauffele 18 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.28% 2.59% -1.69% T25
6 NIR Rory McIlroy 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.28% 1.65% -2.63% T12
7 USA Collin Morikawa 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.54% 5.19% 1.65% T20 14.72
8 USA Daniel Berger 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.54% 4.59% 1.05% T25 14.72
9 AUS Jason Day 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.81% 1.19% -1.62% 64
10 USA Patrick Reed 30 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.62% 3.01% 0.39% T40 10.92
11 USA Harris English 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.39% 3.41% 1.02% T40 9.96
12 USA Scottie Scheffler 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.39% 1.53% -0.86% T20
13 USA Patrick Cantlay 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.39% 1.37% -1.02% T12
14 USA Tony Finau 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.39% 1.09% -1.31% 5
15 USA Tiger Woods 35 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.26% 0.94% -1.32% T51
16 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.98% 2.93% 0.95% T16 8.26
17 NOR Viktor Hovland 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.98% 2.2% 0.22% T40
18 USA Kevin Kisner 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.98% 1.57% -0.41% T25
19 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.98% 1.01% -0.97% T3
20 USA Matthew Wolff 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.77% 1.09% -0.68% T16
21 AUS Adam Scott 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.77% 0.75% -1.02% T25
22 ENG Paul Casey 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 2.04% 0.44% T16 6.64
23 USA Billy Horschel 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.33% 3.23% 1.9% T33 5.55
24 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.33% 2.39% 1.06% T6 5.55
25 KOR Sungjae Im 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.15% 0.96% -0.18% T56
26 MEX Abraham Ancer 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1% 2.23% 1.22% T33 4.18
27 USA Russell Henley 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1% 1.49% 0.49% T25 4.18
28 USA Gary Woodland 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% 1.46% 0.45% T33 4.18
29 SWE Alexander Noren 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% 1.41% 0.4% T40
30 USA Cameron Champ 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% 1.15% 0.14% T65
31 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% 0.99% -0.01% T25
32 USA Ryan Palmer 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.89% 2.01% 1.11% T40 3.72
33 USA Bubba Watson 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.89% 1.39% 0.49% T16 3.72
34 USA Jason Kokrak 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.89% 1.32% 0.43% T6 3.72
35 USA Matt Kuchar 90 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.89% 0.79% -0.1% T59
36 USA Brendon Todd 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.88% 0.08% T8
37 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 0.94% 0.3% T33
38 AUS Marc Leishman 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.75% 0.1% 69
39 AUS Cameron Smith 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 0.41% -0.24% T20
40 USA Kevin Na 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.58% 1.26% 0.69% T51
41 USA Brian Harman 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.74% 0.21% T12
42 CHI Joaquin Niemann 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.69% 0.15% T3
43 KOR Byeong Hun An 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.58% 0.04% T12
44 USA Joel Dahmen 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.51% 2.24% 1.74% T20
45 USA Mackenzie Hughes 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.46% 1.02% 0.56% T10
46 USA Brendan Steele 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 0.98% 0.51% T33
47 RSA Dylan Frittelli 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 1.68% 1.28% T33
48 USA Kevin Streelman 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 1.18% 0.77% T51
49 USA Mark Hubbard 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 1.09% 0.69% T51
50 CAN Adam Hadwin 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.96% 0.56% T40
51 USA Talor Gooch 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 0.86% 0.45% T65
52 USA Lanto Griffin 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.69% 0.29% T10
53 USA Charles Howell III 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.19% T48
54 USA Robby Shelton 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 0.59% 0.18% T59
55 USA Max Homa 200 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.38% -0.02% T59
56 USA Adam Long 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 1.55% 1.22% T56
57 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 1.46% 1.13% T20
58 USA Maverick McNealy 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.67% 0.34% T40
59 USA JT Poston 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.29% 0.84% 0.55% T59
60 USA Tyler Duncan 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.29% 0.77% 0.47% T48
61 NZL Danny Lee 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.29% 0.67% 0.37% T33
62 USA Harry Higgs 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.55% 0.28% T56
63 USA Michael Thompson 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.79% 0.56% T59
64 USA Jim Herman 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 1.28% 1.08% T40
65 USA Tom Hoge 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.77% 0.57% T65
66 USA Andrew Landry 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.41% 0.21% 68
67 CAN Nick Taylor 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.31% 0.1% T51
68 MEX Carlos Ortiz 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.24% 0.07% T25
69 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T8

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 22.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 30.6% 16.7%
2 VBet 5 @ 1/4 33.8% 19.5%
3 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 45.4% 22.1%
4 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 34.3% 22.5%
5 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 47.7% 24.1%
6 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 39.9% 25%
7 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 48.9% 25.1%
8 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 48.9% 25.1%
9 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 50.3% 26.3%
10 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 42.9% 27.7%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.9% 27.7%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.9% 27.7%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 30.9%
14 Betway 6 @ 1/5 43.8% 31.3%
15 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 46.6% 33.8%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50% 37%
17 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 53% 39.7%