Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 12.5

Total Profit: -87.6

WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational

30/07/2020 - 02/08/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.46% 3.77% -2.69% T47
2 ESP Jon Rahm 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.46% 2.34% -4.12% T52
3 USA Justin Thomas 12 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.96% 3.15% -2.81% 1
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.17% 3.33% -1.84% T30
5 USA Xander Schauffele 18 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.08% 3.54% -0.54% T6
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.69% 2.27% -1.42% T35
7 USA Webb Simpson 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.37% 2.07% -1.3% T12
8 USA Daniel Berger 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% 2.4% -0.27% T2
9 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% 2.29% -0.39% T69
10 USA Collin Morikawa 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% 1.88% -0.79% T20
11 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% 0.94% -1.73% T2
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 30 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.5% 3.72% 1.22% T59 10.89
13 USA Dustin Johnson 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.28% 2.41% 0.13% T12 9.93
14 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.28% 1.33% -0.95% T20
15 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 3.26% 1.11% T6 (tied w/6) 9.38 +12.5
16 USA Patrick Reed 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 2.36% 0.21% T47 9.38
17 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 1.01% -1.14% T35
18 USA Tony Finau 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 0.93% -1.22% T65
19 USA Gary Woodland 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.68% 2.94% 1.26% T57 7.34
20 USA Billy Horschel 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.68% 1.41% -0.27% T25
21 AUS Jason Day 45 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.68% 1.07% -0.61% T6
22 USA Jordan Spieth 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 1.46% -0.06% T30
23 USA Rickie Fowler 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 0.55% -0.97% T15
24 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.38% 2.83% 1.45% T15 6.03
25 AUS Marc Leishman 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.79% 0.64% T52 5.04
26 ESP Sergio Garcia 70 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.09% 1.72% 0.63% T35 4.76
27 USA Matt Kuchar 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 2.11% 1.15% T25 4.17
28 KOR Sungjae Im 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 1.22% 0.26% T35 4.17
29 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.11% 0.15% T69 4.17
30 USA Matthew Wolff 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 0.77% -0.19% T49
31 USA Scottie Scheffler 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 0.87% 0.02% T15
32 ENG Paul Casey 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 0.6% -0.25% T67
33 CHI Joaquin Niemann 90 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 0.45% -0.4% T52
34 USA Kevin Na 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1.95% 1.19% T35 3.35
35 USA Max Homa 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.22% 0.45% T52 3.35
36 CAN Adam Hadwin 100 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.17% 0.41% T72 3.35
37 ENG Danny Willett 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 0.96% 0.19% T69 3.35
38 SWE Henrik Stenson 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 0.12% -0.65% T35
39 USA Kevin Streelman 110 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 2.08% 1.39% T35 3.04
40 ENG Matt Wallace 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.92% 0.22% T59 3.04
41 CAN Corey Conners 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.79% 0.09% T30
42 USA Bubba Watson 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.68% -0.02% T25
43 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 1.21% 0.59% T6 2.68
44 USA Brendon Todd 125 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.9% 0.29% T15 2.68
45 USA Kevin Kisner 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.71% 0.09% T25
46 USA Phil Mickelson 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.57% -0.05% T2
47 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.49% -0.12% T6
48 USA Ryan Palmer 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 2.18% 1.63% T15
49 RSA Erik van Rooyen 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 0.72% 0.17% T20
50 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 2.86% 2.34% T44
51 USA Michael Thompson 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.23% 0.72% T57
52 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.77% 0.25% T20
53 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.72% 0.21% 74
54 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.58% 0.07% 78
55 IRL Shane Lowry 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.47% -0.05% T6
56 USA Brandt Snedeker 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.35% -0.17% T67
57 USA JT Poston 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 1.13% 0.65% T30
58 KOR Byeong Hun An 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.46% -0.03% T12
59 USA Cameron Champ 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.47% 0.08% T25
60 SCO Robert MacIntyre 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.4% 0.02% T59
61 ENG Tom Lewis 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.34% -0.05% T2
62 USA Jason Kokrak 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.42% 0.07% T44
63 AUS Cameron Smith 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.22% -0.12% T59
64 USA Joel Dahmen 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 2.43% 2.13% T20
65 AUS Matt Jones 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.77% 0.46% T59
66 USA Keegan Bradley 250 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.37% 0.06% T52
67 CAN Nick Taylor 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 1.96% 1.67% T35
68 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.32% 0.07% T49
69 NIR Graeme McDowell 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.31% 0.05% T35
70 USA Andrew Landry 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.5% 0.28% T30
71 AUS Lucas Herbert 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.48% 0.26% T49
72 TPE C.T. Pan 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.48% 0.26% T72
73 CHN Hao Tong Li 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.24% 0.01% T75
74 FRA Victor Perez 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.07% T65
75 THA Jazz Janewattananond 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% T59
76 RSA Shaun Norris 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.65% 0.52% T75
77 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.1% -0.01% 77
78 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T44

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 36.1% 14.1%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
3 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 37.1% 22.4%
4 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 46.2% 22.7%
5 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 23.3%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
8 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 51.3% 26.9%
9 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
11 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
12 Betway 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 29.2%
13 VBet 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 29.3%
14 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 45% 29.5%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 44.2% 31.5%
16 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 31.7%
17 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.7%
18 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 45.9% 33.1%