Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 39.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 54.2

Total Profit: -46

The Genesis Invitational

13/02/2020 - 16/02/2020

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.79% 2.64% -6.15% T5
2 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.39% 3.36% -3.03% T17
3 USA Justin Thomas 10 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.39% 2.05% -4.34% MC
4 USA Dustin Johnson 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.69% 1.58% -3.11% T10
5 USA Tiger Woods 18 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.7% 1.91% -1.79% 68
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.35% 0.96% -2.39% T17
7 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.06% 1.88% -1.17% T23
8 USA Bubba Watson 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.06% 1.22% -1.84% MC
9 USA Brooks Koepka 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.06% 0.68% -2.38% T43
10 USA Tony Finau 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.7% 1.85% -0.86% T51
11 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 1.82% -0.6% T5
12 AUS Adam Scott 30 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.27% 1.34% -0.92% 1
13 AUS Jason Day 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.95% 0.95% -1% MC
14 AUS Marc Leishman 40 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.71% 1.74% 0.02% T43 7.78
15 ENG Justin Rose 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.29% -0.42% T56
16 USA Collin Morikawa 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.86% 0.49% T26 6.25
17 USA Patrick Reed 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.86% 0.48% T51 6.25
18 USA Bryson DeChambeau 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.35% -0.03% T5 (tied w/5) 6.25 +27.5
19 USA Phil Mickelson 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 0.94% -0.44% MC
20 ENG Paul Casey 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 1.73% 0.47% T37 5.69
21 USA Jordan Spieth 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 0.76% -0.5% T59
22 KOR Sungjae Im 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.15% 3.01% 1.85% MC 5.23
23 MEX Abraham Ancer 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 1.81% 0.66% T43 5.23
24 USA Matt Kuchar 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 0.7% -0.45% T2
25 ESP Sergio Garcia 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 2.21% 1.16% T37 4.76
26 USA J.B. Holmes 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.61% -0.44% T51
27 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 2.07% 1.2% T30 3.94
28 USA Kevin Na 80 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.87% 1.05% 0.19% MC 3.94
29 USA Ryan Moore 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 1.05% 0.28% T30 3.51
30 CHI Joaquin Niemann 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.77% 0.93% 0.16% MC 3.51
31 USA Charles Howell III 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.9% 0.13% T59 3.51
32 USA Max Homa 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.72% -0.05% T5 (tied w/5) 3.51 +26.7
33 CAN Nick Taylor 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.97% 0.28% MC 3.16
34 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.89% 0.19% MC 3.16
35 SWE Alexander Noren 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.72% 0.03% T59 3.16
36 CAN Adam Hadwin 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 1.84% 1.21% T26 2.88
37 USA Scottie Scheffler 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.63% 1.42% 0.79% T30 2.88
38 USA Cameron Champ 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.7% 0.06% MC 2.88
39 USA Ryan Palmer 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.56% 2.02% 1.47% 67 2.53
40 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.56% 1.89% 1.34% MC 2.53
41 AUS Cameron Smith 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.07% 0.51% MC 2.53
42 USA Keegan Bradley 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.05% 0.5% MC 2.53
43 USA JT Poston 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.02% 0.46% T30 2.53
44 USA Jason Kokrak 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.56% 0.38% -0.18% MC
45 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 2.06% 1.59% MC
46 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.64% 1.17% T37
47 USA Bud Cauley 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.99% 0.52% T51
48 USA Matthew Wolff 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.98% 0.51% MC
49 USA Brian Harman 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.91% 0.45% T47
50 USA Brendon Todd 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.78% 0.32% T56
51 USA Scott Piercy 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.78% 0.32% T17
52 SCO Russell Knox 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.66% 0.2% MC
53 USA Andrew Putnam 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.61% 0.14% MC
54 ITA Francesco Molinari 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.48% 0.02% MC
55 USA Jim Furyk 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.42% -0.04% MC
56 USA Chez Reavie 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.4% -0.07% T10
57 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.44% 1.05% 0.61% T17
58 MEX Carlos Ortiz 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 1.24% 0.84% T26
59 USA Vaughn Taylor 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.55% 0.15% T13
60 USA Patrick Rodgers 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.49% 0.09% T30
61 SVK Rory Sabbatini 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.4% 0% T59
62 ARG Emiliano Grillo 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.31% -0.09% MC
63 ENG Danny Willett 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 1.54% 1.19% MC
64 AUS Matt Jones 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 1.19% 0.84% MC
65 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.59% 0.24% T37
66 RSA Dylan Frittelli 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.53% 0.18% MC
67 USA Charley Hoffman 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.35% 0% MC
68 USA Nate Lashley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 1.02% 0.74% MC
69 USA Pat Perez 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.83% 0.55% T47
70 USA Adam Long 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.65% 0.37% MC
71 USA Wyndham Clark 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.53% 0.25% T17
72 USA Andrew Landry 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.44% 0.16% T37
73 USA Luke List 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.38% 0.1% T30
74 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.31% 0.03% MC
75 USA Nick Watney 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.25% -0.03% MC
76 USA Aaron Wise 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.15% -0.13% MC
77 USA Joel Dahmen 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.25% 0.62% 0.37% T5
78 USA Cameron Tringale 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.74% 0.51% T30
79 USA James Hahn 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.68% 0.45% T13
80 AUS Aaron Baddeley 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.43% 0.19% MC
81 USA Talor Gooch 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.33% 0.09% T10
82 USA Scott Stallings 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.31% 0.08% MC
83 USA Kevin Chappell 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.22% -0.01% MC
84 NZL Danny Lee 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.71% 0.51% MC
85 USA Kevin Tway 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.66% 0.46% MC
86 USA Brian Gay 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.52% 0.32% MC
87 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.34% 0.14% MC
88 USA Jimmy Walker 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% MC
89 USA Adam Schenk 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.28% 0.08% T47
90 USA Troy Merritt 350 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.22% 0.02% MC
91 USA Kyle Stanley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.19% -0.01% T64
92 USA Michael Thompson 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.18% -0.02% MC
93 SCO Martin Laird 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.14% -0.06% T43
94 USA Russell Henley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% T17
95 USA Harold Varner III 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.35% 0.18% T13
96 USA Sam Ryder 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.35% 0.17% MC
97 USA Jason Dufner 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% T64
98 AUT Sepp Straka 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.62% 0.48% MC
99 USA Peter Malnati 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.46% 0.32% MC
100 USA Brian Stuard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% T23
101 USA Bronson Burgoon 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% MC
102 USA Tyler Duncan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% T64
103 USA Joseph Bramlett 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% T51
104 USA Sam Burns 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% T23
105 KOR Siwoo Kim 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.18% T37
106 USA J.J Spaun 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% 63
107 USA Matt Every 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
108 TPE C.T. Pan 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
109 USA Scott Brown 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% T2
110 USA Steve Stricker 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.09% -0.05% T56
111 USA Ryan Armour 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.41% 0.3% MC
112 USA Chris Stroud 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.33% 0.23% MC
113 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% T13
114 CAN Roger Sloan 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.14% 0.05% MC
115 USA Jim Herman 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.13% 0.04% MC
116 USA Martin Trainer 2500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.18% 0.15% T47
117 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T2
118 KOR Kyongjun Moon 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
119 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
120 TPE Sean Yu 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 39.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 56.5% 21.6%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.4% 24.5%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 60.4% 24.5%
4 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 53% 28.4%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 69.3% 31.5%
6 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 64.5% 32.7%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.6% 33.6%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 62.2% 36.2%
9 Coral 7 @ 1/5 65.3% 38.8%
10 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 53.1% 39.8%
11 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.7%
12 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.2% 40.8%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 40.8%
14 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 40.8%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 40.8%
16 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 55% 41.5%
17 VBet 5 @ 1/4 59.5% 42.5%
18 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 57.3% 43.6%