Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 67.4

Total Profit: -32.8

BMW Championship

15/08/2019 - 18/08/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 8 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.4% 0% 0% T19
2 USA Brooks Koepka 8 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.4% 0% 0% T24
3 ESP Jon Rahm 11 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.3% 0% 0% T5
4 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.04% 0% 0% 1
5 USA Dustin Johnson 15 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 6.25% 4.72% 0% 0% T57
6 ENG Justin Rose 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.98% 0% 0% T52
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.29% 0% 0% 2
8 AUS Adam Scott 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 0% 0% T9
9 USA Patrick Reed 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 0% 0% T19
10 USA Webb Simpson 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 0% 0% T24
11 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.61% 0% 0% T11
12 USA Jordan Spieth 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 0% 0% T37
13 USA Rickie Fowler 33 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.22% 0% 0% T11
14 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.84% 0% 0% T11
15 USA Tony Finau 40 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.84% 0% 0% 4
16 USA Xander Schauffele 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.84% 0% 0% T19
17 USA Tiger Woods 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 0% 0% T37 7.41
18 ENG Paul Casey 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 0% 0% T24
19 USA Bryson DeChambeau 45 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.64% 0% 0% T48
20 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 0% 0% 3 6.68 +45.1
21 AUS Jason Day 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 0% 0% T52
22 USA Matt Kuchar 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 0% 0% T52 6.08
23 USA Billy Horschel 55 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 0% 0% T37 6.08
24 ENG Ian Poulter 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 0% 0% T31
25 ITA Francesco Molinari 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0% 0% T61 5.09
26 USA Brandt Snedeker 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0% 0% T5 (tied w/2) 5.09 +22.3
27 USA Jason Kokrak 66 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0% 0% T19 5.09
28 USA Collin Morikawa 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0% 0% T48 5.09
29 USA Gary Woodland 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0% 0% T31 4.8
30 USA Ryan Moore 80 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T37
31 IRL Shane Lowry 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T48 4.21
32 AUS Marc Leishman 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T19 4.21
33 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T63 4.21
34 KOR Byeong Hun An 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T28 4.21
35 USA Kevin Kisner 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T9 4.21
36 MEX Abraham Ancer 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0% 0% T28 4.21
37 SVK Rory Sabbatini 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0% 0% T16 3.75
38 USA Andrew Putnam 90 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0% 0% T43 3.75
39 KOR Sungjae Im 90 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0% 0% T11 3.75
40 CHI Joaquin Niemann 90 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0% 0% T31 3.75
41 USA Chez Reavie 110 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.68% 0% 0% T57 3.07
42 USA Charles Howell III 125 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0% 0% T37 2.71
43 USA Harold Varner III 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0% 0% 68 2.71
44 USA Lucas Glover 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0% 0% T7
45 USA Jim Furyk 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0% 0% T57
46 USA Scott Piercy 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0% 0% T37
47 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0% 0% T43
48 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0% 0% T52
49 USA JT Poston 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0% 0% T16
50 USA Keegan Bradley 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0% 0% T43
51 CAN Corey Conners 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0% 0% T7
52 ARG Emiliano Grillo 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0% 0% T31
53 USA Phil Mickelson 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T48
54 USA Ryan Palmer 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T43
55 USA Troy Merritt 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T43
56 USA Vaughn Taylor 200 (William Hill: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T16
57 KOR Siwoo Kim 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T28
58 TPE C.T. Pan 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T31
59 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T31
60 USA Cameron Champ 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0% 0% T65
61 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0% 0% T57
62 USA J.B. Holmes 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0% 0% T65
63 USA Kevin Tway 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0% 0% T11
64 USA Keith Mitchell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0% 0% T52
65 USA Max Homa 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0% 0% T61
66 USA Nate Lashley 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0% 0% 69
67 USA Joel Dahmen 350 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0% 0% T24
68 USA Adam Long 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0% 0% T65
69 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T63

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.1% 21%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 45.8% 22.5%
3 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 46.7% 23.2%
4 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 51.2% 27.1%
5 Betway 7 @ 1/5 51.8% 27.6%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.4% 28.2%
7 Coral 7 @ 1/5 52.7% 28.3%
8 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 29%
9 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 29%
10 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 45.9% 30.4%
11 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 31.6%
12 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.2% 32.4%
13 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 33%
14 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 33%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 33%
16 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 33%
17 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 33%
18 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 49.4% 33.5%
19 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 46.3% 33.6%
20 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 47.4% 34.5%
21 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 50.7% 34.7%