Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 36.3

Total Profit: -63.8

WGC - FedEx St. Jude Invitational

25/07/2019 - 28/07/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 10 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.08% 4.25% -2.83% T4
2 USA Dustin Johnson 10 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 9.09% 7.08% 4.1% -2.98% T20
3 USA Brooks Koepka 11 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.49% 4.33% -2.17% 1
4 ESP Jon Rahm 12 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.99% 3.41% -2.59% 7
5 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.2% 2.62% -2.57% T12
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.71% 2.47% -1.24% T12
7 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.39% 2.31% -1.08% T27
8 ENG Justin Rose 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.39% 1.8% -1.58% 11
9 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 25 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3% 2.11% -0.89% T4
10 SWE Henrik Stenson 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.51% 2.5% -0.01% T27
11 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.51% 2.01% -0.51% T43
12 USA Webb Simpson 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.29% 2.42% 0.13% 2
13 USA Jordan Spieth 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.29% 2.04% -0.25% T12
14 AUS Adam Scott 33 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.29% 1.93% -0.37% T40
15 USA Bryson DeChambeau 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.29% 1.59% -0.7% T48
16 USA Tony Finau 33 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.29% 1.44% -0.85% T27
17 USA Matt Kuchar 35 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.16% 3.46% 1.29% T43 9.51
18 AUS Jason Day 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.16% 2.38% 0.21% T40 9.51
19 ENG Paul Casey 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 2.15% 0.25% T27 8.35
20 USA Patrick Reed 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 1.98% 0.08% T12
21 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% 2.13% 0.6% T20 6.71
22 USA Gary Woodland 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.53% 1.24% -0.29% T55
23 USA Andrew Putnam 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.39% 1.04% -0.35% T24
24 USA Chez Reavie 60 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.28% 1.53% 0.25% T27 5.61
25 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.28% 1.37% 0.1% T43
26 USA Billy Horschel 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.28% 1.11% -0.17% T9
27 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 1.82% 0.65% T12 5.11
28 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.42% 0.26% T4 (tied w/3) 5.11 +36.3
29 AUS Marc Leishman 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.31% 0.15% 3
30 ESP Sergio Garcia 70 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.1% 1.98% 0.88% T40 4.82
31 ENG Matt Wallace 70 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.1% 1.84% 0.75% T27 4.82
32 USA Brandt Snedeker 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.03% 1.49% 0.46% T27 4.51
33 USA Kevin Kisner 80 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 1.66% 0.7% T27 4.23
34 ENG Danny Willett 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.14% 0.18% T48 4.23
35 ENG Ian Poulter 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 1.76% 0.9% 8 3.76
36 USA Matthew Wolff 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 0.49% -0.36% T24
37 USA Phil Mickelson 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 2.56% 1.79% 57 3.39
38 SWE Alexander Noren 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.04% 0.27% T12 3.39
39 AUS Cameron Smith 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.91% 0.14% T12
40 USA Keegan Bradley 110 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 1.21% 0.51% T61 3.09
41 ENG Eddie Pepperell 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.7% 1.11% 0.41% T51 3.09
42 USA Bubba Watson 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 1.97% 1.35% T9 2.72
43 USA Jim Furyk 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.78% 1.16% T27 2.72
44 CHN Hao Tong Li 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.55% 0.93% T20 2.72
45 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.84% 0.22% T27 2.72
46 USA Kevin Na 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 1.6% 1.09% T43
47 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 1.23% 0.71% T51
48 USA J.B. Holmes 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 1.03% 0.52% 54
49 USA Kevin Tway 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.5% 0.06% 63
50 RSA Justin Harding 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 1.15% 0.76% T43
51 TPE C.T. Pan 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.83% 0.44% T48
52 USA Nate Lashley 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.74% 0.35% T20
53 USA Keith Mitchell 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.68% 0.3% 39
54 KOR Sunghoon Kang 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 1.09% 0.8% 60
55 USA Max Homa 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.73% 0.47% T61
56 CAN Corey Conners 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.3% 0.04% T27
57 USA Adam Long 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.63% 0.43% T24
58 ENG Aaron Rai 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.27% 0.07% T12
59 JPN Shugo Imahira 500 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.72% 0.56% T27
60 JPN Mikumu Horikawa 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.26% 0.16% T58
61 THA Poom Saksansin 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.14% T58
62 JPN Kodai Ichihara 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.15% T55
63 SWE Philip Eriksson 1500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% T51

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 44.9% 21.7%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 45% 21.8%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 37.3% 22.7%
4 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 35.3% 23.5%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 47.7% 24.1%
6 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 50.1% 26.1%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 42.5% 27.3%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 28.4%
9 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 43.9% 28.6%
10 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.8%
11 Coral 5 @ 1/4 44.5% 29.1%
12 Betway 5 @ 1/4 44.5% 29.2%
13 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
14 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
15 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
16 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
17 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
18 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 48.4% 32.6%
19 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.6% 32.8%
20 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 48.6% 32.8%