Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 85.4

Total Profit: -14.7

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

07/03/2019 - 10/03/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.38% 4.04% -6.34% T6
2 ENG Justin Rose 11 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.05% 3.23% -2.82% T63
3 USA Brooks Koepka 12 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.59% 2.63% -2.96% MC
4 USA Rickie Fowler 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.59% 1.74% -3.85% T40
5 AUS Jason Day 14 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.84% 2.5% -2.34% WD
6 USA Bryson DeChambeau 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.27% 3.61% -0.67% T46
7 AUS Marc Leishman 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.79% 2.37% -0.43% T23
8 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.51% 2.02% -0.49% T33
9 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 33 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 1.89% -0.25% T3
10 USA Patrick Reed 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 1.54% -0.6% T50
11 ITA Francesco Molinari 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 1.16% -0.97% 1
12 USA Phil Mickelson 50 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.42% 2.28% 0.85% MC 6.4
13 USA Bubba Watson 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 2.19% 0.77% T17 6.4
14 USA Billy Horschel 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 2.13% 0.71% T50 6.4
15 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.89% 0.46% MC 6.4
16 ENG Ian Poulter 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.5% 0.08% T23 6.4
17 USA Lucas Glover 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.39% -0.03% T10
18 SWE Henrik Stenson 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.3% 0.89% -0.41% T17
19 USA Charles Howell III 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.19% 1.34% 0.15% T15 5.35
20 USA Daniel Berger 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.19% 0.97% -0.22% MC
21 USA Keegan Bradley 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.28% 0.2% T46 4.87
22 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.23% 0.14% T29 4.87
23 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.09% 0% T3 (tied w/3) 4.87 +34.6
24 KOR Siwoo Kim 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 0.94% -0.14% MC
25 USA Jason Kokrak 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.02% 0.61% -0.42% T10
26 USA J.B. Holmes 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.46% 0.56% MC 4.03
27 KOR Byeong Hun An 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.86% -0.03% T10
28 USA Luke List 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.74% -0.16% T10
29 USA Kevin Kisner 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.8% 0.83% 0.03% T23 3.59
30 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.95% 0.23% T23 3.24
31 USA Matt Every 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.9% 0.18% MC 3.24
32 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.84% 0.12% 2 3.24 +34
33 USA Michael Thompson 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.77% 0.05% MC 3.24
34 CAN Adam Hadwin 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 0.76% 0.04% T33 3.24
35 USA Zach Johnson 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 0.73% 0.01% T40 3.24
36 USA Cameron Champ 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.56% -0.16% MC
37 USA Bud Cauley 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 0.63% -0.02% MC 2.94
38 ENG Matt Wallace 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.47% 0.89% T6 (tied w/4) 2.59 +8.4
39 IRL Shane Lowry 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.35% 0.77% MC 2.59
40 USA Scott Piercy 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1% 0.42% T54 2.59
41 MEX Abraham Ancer 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.87% 0.29% MC 2.59
42 USA Aaron Wise 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.64% 0.07% T40 2.59
43 USA Patrick Rodgers 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.62% 0.04% T46 2.59
44 USA Keith Mitchell 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.62% 0.04% T6 (tied w/4) 2.59 +8.4
45 USA Kevin Na 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.55% -0.02% MC
46 ENG Danny Willett 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.05% 0.56% MC
47 KOR Sungjae Im 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.86% 0.38% T3
48 USA Brandt Snedeker 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.82% 0.34% T50
49 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.59% 0.1% MC
50 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.55% 0.07% T23
51 USA Ryan Moore 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.4% -0.08% T33
52 USA Beau Hossler 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.33% -0.15% T58
53 NIR Graeme McDowell 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.91% 0.5% T54
54 USA Harold Varner III 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.87% 0.46% MC
55 NZL Danny Lee 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.65% 0.24% MC
56 USA JT Poston 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.44% 0.03% T66
57 CHI Joaquin Niemann 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.43% 0.02% T46
58 USA Kyle Stanley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.69% 0.33% MC
59 AUS Aaron Baddeley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.65% 0.29% T17
60 USA Pat Perez 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.59% 0.23% T50
61 GER Martin Kaymer 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.59% 0.23% T33
62 USA Chesson Hadley 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.53% 0.16% T17
63 TPE C.T. Pan 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.41% 0.05% MC
64 USA Charley Hoffman 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.34% -0.02% MC
65 RSA Ernie Els 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.87% 0.58% MC
66 KOR Sunghoon Kang 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.77% 0.48% T6
67 ENG Eddie Pepperell 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.68% 0.39% 57
68 USA Brian Gay 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.61% 0.32% MC
69 USA Nate Lashley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.6% 0.31% MC
70 SCO Martin Laird 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.57% 0.28% MC
71 USA Adam Schenk 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.54% 0.25% T29
72 USA Harris English 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.51% 0.22% 68
73 USA Steve Stricker 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.51% 0.22% T58
74 USA Sam Saunders 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.49% 0.2% T63
75 USA Kevin Streelman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.48% 0.19% T58
76 USA Scott Brown 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.45% 0.16% MC
77 USA Ryan Armour 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.43% 0.14% MC
78 USA Scott Stallings 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.42% 0.14% T40
79 ENG Sam Horsfield 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.42% 0.13% T33
80 USA Stewart Cink 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.41% 0.12% MC
81 USA Jimmy Walker 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.39% 0.1% T58
82 CAN Roger Sloan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.26% -0.03% T23
83 USA Sam Burns 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.25% -0.04% T54
84 USA Austin Cook 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.24% -0.05% MC
85 USA Chris Kirk 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.21% -0.08% T15
86 FIJ Vijay Singh 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.87% 0.63% MC
87 USA Chris Stroud 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.52% 0.28% MC
88 MEX Carlos Ortiz 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.49% 0.25% T29
89 USA Jason Dufner 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.42% 0.18% MC
90 USA Joel Dahmen 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.4% 0.16% MC
91 USA Bill Haas 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% MC
92 USA Brendan Steele 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.32% 0.08% T17
93 IND Anirban Lahiri 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.31% 0.07% T69
94 USA Sam Ryder 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.29% 0.05% T33
95 USA Ollie Schniederjans 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.28% 0.04% MC
96 USA Bronson Burgoon 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.23% -0.01% MC
97 USA Vaughn Taylor 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.57% 0.37% MC
98 USA Scott Langley 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% MC
99 CAN Corey Conners 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.45% 0.25% MC
100 USA J.J Spaun 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.42% 0.21% T63
101 USA Hudson Swafford 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.41% 0.21% T29
102 USA Brian Harman 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.36% 0.15% MC
103 USA Andrew Landry 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.51% 0.32% MC
104 USA Martin Trainer 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.38% 0.2% T66
105 USA Richy Werenski 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% MC
106 USA Dominic Bozzelli 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.41% 0.26% MC
107 USA Adam Long 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.37% 0.22% T10
108 USA Anders Albertson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% MC
109 USA Brice Garnett 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.14% MC
110 USA Ryan Blaum 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.14% T17
111 USA Robert Streb 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
112 USA Hunter Mahan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% T40
113 USA Braden Thornberry 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.1% MC
114 NOR Viktor Hovland 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.09% T40
115 DEN Oliver Suhr 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.07% -0.07% MC
116 USA Michael Kim 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.33% 0.23% MC
117 USA D.A. Points 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.25% 0.18% T58
118 USA Tim Herron 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.16% T69
119 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 2.04% 0% MC
120 USA Ted Potter-jr 0% 0% 0.39% 0% MC
121 USA Johnson Wagner 0% 0% 0.29% 0% T33

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...