Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 11.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 33.3

Total Profit: -66.8

Dubai Desert Classic

26/01/2023 - 29/01/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 3.33 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.3/1) 23.09% 18.75% 3.99% -14.76% 1
2 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 10 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.38% 2.37% -5.01% T38
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.41% 1.75% -3.66% T59
4 AUS Minwoo Lee 18 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.27% 1.99% -2.29% T13
5 IRL Shane Lowry 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 3.53% 2.15% -1.38% MC
6 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.53% 1.78% -1.75% T38
7 BEL Thomas Pieters 30 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.62% 0.98% -1.64% T6
8 AUS Lucas Herbert 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.39% 1.27% -1.12% 3
9 POL Adrian Meronk 37 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.2/1) 2.63% 2.14% 1.06% -1.08% MC
10 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 40 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.98% 1.33% -0.65% T20 8.74
11 NZL Ryan Fox 40 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.98% 1.17% -0.81% T20
12 FRA Victor Perez 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 1.93% 1.78% -0.16% T28 8.54
13 ITA Francesco Molinari 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.77% 1.49% -0.27% MC 7.79
14 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 45 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.77% 0.76% -1.01% T38
15 ENG Jordan L Smith 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.45% 0.83% -0.63% T20 6.4
16 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 60 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.33% 0.73% -0.61% T16 5.88
17 MEX Abraham Ancer 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.29% 1.63% 0.34% MC 5.69
18 FRA Antoine Rozner 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% 1.55% 0.34% T78 5.35
19 ENG Matt Wallace 66 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% 0.85% -0.36% T16 5.35
20 IRL Padraig Harrington 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.14% 2.02% 0.87% MC 5.05
21 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% 0.57% -0.44% T13 4.43
22 USA Patrick Reed 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.85% 1.04% 0.2% 2 3.74 +33.3
23 ITA Guido Migliozzi 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 0.92% 0.12% MC 3.55
24 ENG Richard Mansell 100 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% 0.87% 0.06% T51 3.55
25 SWE Henrik Stenson 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 0.84% 0.03% T8 3.55
26 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 0.76% -0.05% T20 3.55
27 IND Shubhankar Sharma 100 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% 0.75% -0.05% MC 3.55
28 AUS Jason Scrivener 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 0.67% -0.13% T59 3.55
29 FIN Sami Valimaki 110 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.73% 0.7% -0.04% MC 3.23
30 AUT Sepp Straka 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.65% 2.25% 1.6% MC 2.89
31 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 125 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% 1.07% 0.42% MC 2.85
32 USA Michael Thorbjornsen 125 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% 0.18% -0.47% T20 2.85
33 ESP Adrian Otaegui 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.61% 2.02% 1.41% T28
34 ENG Lee Westwood 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.61% 0.76% 0.15% T51
35 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.56% 0.81% 0.24% MC
36 FRA Romain Langasque 150 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.71% 0.17% T16
37 RSA Thriston Lawrence 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 0.95% 0.42% MC
38 SCO Scott Jamieson 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 0.84% 0.31% T70
39 ENG Sam Horsfield 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 0.74% 0.21% T59
40 ENG Richard Bland 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.76% 0.26% T8
41 ENG Andy Sullivan 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.42% 1.04% 0.62% T75
42 CHN Wu Ashun 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.42% 0.92% 0.49% T20
43 SWE Alexander Bjork 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.42% 0.91% 0.48% T16
44 RSA George Coetzee 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.42% 0.74% 0.32% MC
45 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 200 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.75% 0.34% 82
46 ESP Jorge Campillo 200 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.61% 0.21% T28
47 NIR Tom McKibbin 200 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.19% MC
48 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.49% 0.08% T38
49 SWE Ludvig Aberg 200 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.18% -0.23% T70
50 NED Joost Luiten 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.4% 0.73% 0.33% T51
51 ENG Callum Shinkwin 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.37% 2.92% 2.55% 4
52 ITA Edoardo Molinari 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.35% 0.7% 0.35% MC
53 SCO Richie Ramsay 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.35% 0.6% 0.24%
54 MAS Gavin Green 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.34% 1.15% 0.81% MC
55 RSA Oliver Bekker 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.34% 0.8% 0.46% T51
56 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.34% 0.47% 0.13% T28
57 GER Yannik Paul 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.86% 0.54% T70
58 GER Maximilian Kieffer 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.74% 0.41% T38
59 ENG Eddie Pepperell 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 1.68% 1.37% MC
60 ENG Ian Poulter 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 0.56% 0.26% T6
61 RSA Justin Harding 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 0.49% 0.19% T59
62 ENG Marcus Armitage 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 0.44% 0.14% T28
63 ENG Paul Waring 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.29% 0.63% 0.34% T65
64 DEN Jeff Winther 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.92% 0.63%
65 SCO Ewen Ferguson 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.72% 0.43% T28
66 SCO Grant Forrest 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.66% 0.37% T51
67 SCO Calum Hill 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.19% -0.11% T13
68 GER Marcel Schneider 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.71% 0.43% T75
69 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% T51
70 FRA Julien Brun 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.56% 0.28% 5
71 FIN Mikko Korhonen 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.27% 0.72% 0.45% MC
72 FRA Julien Guerrier 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.4% 0.13% T65
73 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.83% 0.56% MC
74 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.72% 0.46% T38
75 SCO Connor Syme 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.94% 0.68% T38
76 ENG Andrew Johnston 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.25% 0.18% -0.07% T38
77 ENG Matthew Jordan 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.23% 0.48% 0.24% T20
78 SWE Joakim Lagergren 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.58% 0.36% MC
79 ENG Dale Whitnell 373 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.9/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.76% 0.54% T78
80 USA Sean Crocker 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.66% 0.45% MC
81 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.4% 0.2% T38
82 ENG Nathan Kimsey 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.61% 0.41% T78
83 SCO David Law 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.53% 0.33% T59
84 RSA Zander Lombard 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.47% 0.27% MC
85 RSA Justin Walters 400 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.36% 0.15% T38
86 AUT Lukas Nemecz 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.32% 0.12% T70
87 ESP Santiago Tarrio 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.18% -0.03%
88 THA Jazz Janewattananond 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.51% 0.31% T20
89 FRA Alexander Levy 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.41% 0.21% MC
90 GER Hurly Long 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.41% 0.21% MC
91 ENG Dan Bradbury 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.89% 0.7% T28
92 USA John Catlin 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.35% 0.16% T59
93 ENG Matthew Southgate 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.18% 0.57% 0.38% T65
94 FRA Matthieu Pavon 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.97% 0.79% MC
95 SWE Marcus Kinhult 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% T8
96 ENG Ross Fisher 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.38% 0.21% MC
97 ENG Luke Donald 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% 85
98 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.54% 0.38% T75
99 RSA Louis de Jager 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.15% 0.63% 0.48% T51
100 USA Johannes Veerman 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.4% 0.26% T8
101 WAL Jamie Donaldson 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.4% 0.25% T38
102 KOR Jeunghun Wang 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% T28
103 ENG Jack Senior 613 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.6/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.48% 0.35% MC
104 CAN Aaron Cockerill 700 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.2/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.23% 0.11% MC
105 USA Chase Hanna 739 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 85.5/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.39% 0.28% T38
106 SCO Marc Warren 750 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.41% 0.3% T83
107 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.34% 0.23% MC
108 DEN Thomas Bjorn 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.33% 0.22% MC
109 ESP Nacho Elvira 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.62% 0.51% MC
110 SCO Stephen Gallacher 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.53% 0.43%
111 FRA Victor Dubuisson 777 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.7/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.34% 0.24% MC
112 RSA Ockie Strydom 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.83% 0.72% MC
113 RSA Shaun Norris 863 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.8/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.29% 0.19% T65
114 ENG Oliver Wilson 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.71% 0.63% MC
115 NED Darius Van Driel 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.63% 0.54% 86
116 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.51% 0.42% T28
117 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.48% 0.39% MC
118 ENG James Morrison 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.46% 0.38% MC
119 NED Daan Huizing 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.44% 0.35% 81
120 NOR Espen Kofstad 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.41% 0.33% MC
121 ENG Daniel Gavins 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.39% 0.3% T38
122 RSA JC Ritchie 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.38% 0.3% MC
123 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.36% 0.28% 87
124 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.29% 0.21% T8
125 NED Wil Besseling 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.19% MC
126 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.09% T65
127 EGY Issa Abou El Ela 5000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.18% 0.16% MC
128 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
129 SWE Jens Dantorp 0% 0% 0% 0% T28
130 SWE Mikael Lindberg 0% 0% 0% 0% T70
131 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 0% 0% 0% 0% T51
132 NZL Daniel Hillier 0% 0% 0% 0% T83
133 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
134 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 11.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 14.6% 6.8%
2 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 81.2% 20.9%
3 Coral 10 @ 1/5 81.2% 20.9%
4 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 41.5% 25.1%
5 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 27.1%
6 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.6% 28.8%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 30%
8 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 57.2% 30.2%
9 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 70% 30.3%
10 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 31.1%
11 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 31.1%
12 Betway 7 @ 1/5 61.6% 33.7%
13 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.4%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 53.8% 38.4%
15 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 58% 39.7%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 55.4% 39.8%
17 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 55.4% 39.8%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 55.4% 40%
19 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 55.6% 40%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 64.6% 45.6%