Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -3.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

U.S. PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

18/05/2023 - 21/05/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 7.5 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 11.76% 9.19% 3.02% -6.17% T2
2 ESP Jon Rahm 7.5 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 11.76% 9.19% 2.25% -6.95% T50
3 NIR Rory McIlroy 10 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.1% 1.1% -6% T7
4 USA Brooks Koepka 16 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.6% 0.96% -3.63% 1
5 USA Tony Finau 18 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.11% 2.18% -1.93% T72
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 18 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.11% 1.43% -2.69% T9
7 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.7/1) 4.76% 3.72% 1.96% -1.76% T18
8 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.01% 1.86% -1.15% T2
9 USA Cameron Young 28 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.69% 1.54% -1.16% MC
10 AUS Jason Day 28 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.69% 1.38% -1.31% MC
11 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 28 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.69% 1.15% -1.54% MC
12 USA Dustin Johnson 28 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.69% 0.4% -2.3% T55
13 USA Justin Thomas 30 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.52% 1.45% -1.07% T65
14 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.3% 2.19% -0.11% MC 10.39
15 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.3% 2.05% -0.25% T15 10.39
16 USA Collin Morikawa 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.3% 1.55% -0.75% T26
17 AUS Cameron Smith 33 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.3% 0.58% -1.72% T9
18 USA Max Homa 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.47% 1.51% 0.03% T55 6.67
19 USA Sam Burns 56 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.75% 1.37% 1.77% 0.4% MC 6.2
20 USA Jordan Spieth 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.32% 1.29% -0.04% T29 5.99
21 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 66 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 1.26% 0.1% T18 5.27
22 USA Wyndham Clark 66 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 1.19% 0.02% MC 5.27
23 AUS Adam Scott 66 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 1.08% -0.09% T29 5.27
24 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.15% 0.96% -0.19% T29 5.2
25 USA Rickie Fowler 75 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.03% 2.35% 1.32% MC 4.65
26 IRL Shane Lowry 75 (Star Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.03% 1.39% 0.36% T12 4.65
27 USA Sahith Theegala 80 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.37% 0.4% T40 4.36
28 KOR Siwoo Kim 80 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.36% 0.39% MC 4.36
29 USA Talor Gooch 80 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 0.62% -0.34% MC 4.36
30 JPN Tomoharu Kimura 80 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 0.06% -0.91%
31 CAN Corey Conners 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.18% 0.41% T12 3.5
32 ENG Justin Rose 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.95% 0.18% T9 3.5
33 USA Russell Henley 100 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.92% 0.14% MC 3.5
34 USA Gary Woodland 100 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.82% 0.04% MC 3.5
35 CHI Joaquin Niemann 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.67% 0.71% 0.04% MC 3.05
36 USA Keegan Bradley 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.48% 0.99% 0.52% T29
37 USA Patrick Reed 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.45% 0.82% 0.37% T18
38 USA Harris English 175 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.98% 0.53% MC
39 USA Bryson DeChambeau 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.41% 0.06% -0.34% T4
40 IRL Seamus Power 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 1.01% 0.62% MC
41 ENG Lee Westwood 200 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.16% -0.23%
42 USA Harold Varner III 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.35% 0.61% 0.27% T29
43 USA Taylor Moore 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.33% 1.52% 1.19% T72
44 USA Denny McCarthy 283 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.4/1) 0.35% 0.28% 1.11% 0.83% T29
45 AUS Minwoo Lee 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.26% 1.09% 0.83% T18
46 AUS Cameron Davis 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.25% 0.98% 0.73% T4
47 USA Matt Kuchar 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.23% 2.11% 1.88% MC
48 USA Keith Mitchell 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.23% 1.03% 0.8% T58
49 USA Chris Kirk 371 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.7/1) 0.27% 0.21% 1.24% 1.03% T29
50 USA Phil Mickelson 371 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.7/1) 0.27% 0.21% 0.96% 0.75% T58
51 USA Brian Harman 411 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.5% 0.31% MC
52 USA Kurt Kitayama 411 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.44% 0.25% T4
53 USA Beau Hossler 411 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.29% 0.1% T40
54 MEX Abraham Ancer 420 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.6/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.28% 0.1% MC
55 POL Adrian Meronk 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.18% 1.3% 1.12% T40
56 USA Hayden Buckley 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.18% 0.46% 0.29% T26
57 AUS Lucas Herbert 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.18% 1.89% 1.71% T40
58 USA Tom Hoge 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.17% 0.63% 0.45% T58
59 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.17% 0.56% 0.38% T50
60 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.17% 0.86% 0.69% T29
61 USA J.J Spaun 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.17% 1.07% 0.9% MC
62 NZL Ryan Fox 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.17% 0.86% 0.69% T23
63 USA Andrew Putnam 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.84% 0.68% MC
64 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.42% 0.26% MC
65 USA Mark Hubbard 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.39% 0.23% 75
66 AUS David Micheluzzi 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.27% 0.11% MC
67 USA Matthew NeSmith 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.17% 0.02% T23
68 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 577 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.4/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
69 USA Taylor Montgomery 585 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.1/1) 0.17% 0.13% 0.76% 0.62% T65
70 CAN Adam Hadwin 597 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.2/1) 0.17% 0.13% 0.65% 0.52% T40
71 USA Davis Thompson 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.72% 0.59% MC
72 USA Trey Mullinax 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.3% 0.17% MC
73 ENG Callum Shinkwin 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.29% 0.16% MC
74 ESP Adrian Otaegui 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.22% 0.09% MC
75 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.14% 0.01% T62
76 USA Brendan Steele 607 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.1/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.39% 0.26% MC
77 CAN Nick Taylor 626 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.8/1) 0.16% 0.12% 1.14% 1.02% MC
78 USA Davis Riley 643 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.3/1) 0.16% 0.12% 0.51% 0.39% MC
79 RSA Dean Burmester 646 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.28% 0.16% 54
80 USA Billy Horschel 652 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.1/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.37% 0.25% MC
81 USA Patrick Rodgers 695 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 81.8/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.42% 0.31% T29
82 CAN Adam Svensson 724 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.3/1) 0.14% 0.11% 1.44% 1.33% T40
83 ENG Paul Casey 724 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.3/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.06% -0.05%
84 ARG Emiliano Grillo 734 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 85.1/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.54% 0.44% MC
85 USA JT Poston 744 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.62% 0.52% T40
86 USA Brandon Wu 744 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.37% 0.27% MC
87 USA Zach Johnson 750 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.37% 0.26% T58
88 ENG Benjamin Taylor 750 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.32% 0.21% T69
89 USA Chez Reavie 750 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.09% T40
90 ENG Callum Tarren 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.11% 0.01% T29
91 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.58% 0.48% MC
92 BEL Thomas Pieters 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.42% 0.31% T40
93 SCO Robert MacIntyre 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.19% 0.09% MC
94 IND Anirban Lahiri 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.06% -0.05% MC
95 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 763 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.6/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.46% 0.36% MC
96 BEL Thomas Detry 763 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.6/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.32% 0.22% T40
97 USA Mackenzie Hughes 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.53% 0.44% MC
98 FRA Victor Perez 852 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 94.9/1) 0.12% 0.09% 1.16% 1.07% T12
99 USA Maverick McNealy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 1.06% 0.98% MC
100 AUT Sepp Straka 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.71% 0.63% T7
101 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.56% 0.48% T65
102 USA Aaron Wise 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.52% 0.44% MC
103 USA Adam Schenk 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.47% 0.39% MC
104 SWE Alexander Noren 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.46% 0.38% MC
105 GER Yannik Paul 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.46% 0.38% T69
106 USA Sam Ryder 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.41% 0.33% MC
107 ENG Danny Willett 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.37% 0.29% MC
108 ENG Matt Wallace 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.36% 0.28% T65
109 IRL Padraig Harrington 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.35% 0.27% T50
110 ITA Francesco Molinari 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.35% 0.27% MC
111 USA Scott Stallings 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.35% 0.27% MC
112 USA Alex Smalley 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% T23
113 CAN Taylor Pendrith 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.19% 0.11% T29
114 USA Nick Hardy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% MC
115 USA Joel Dahmen 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.16% 0.08% T69
116 USA Benjamin Griffin 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.78% 0.7% MC
117 USA Brendon Todd 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.72% 0.64% MC
118 ENG Jordan L Smith 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% MC
119 USA Webb Simpson 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% MC
120 USA Kevin Kisner 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.36% 0.28% MC
121 ESP Adria Arnaus 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% MC
122 COL Nicolas Echavarria 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.19% 0.11% MC
123 JPN Kazuki Higa 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% 76
124 USA John Daly 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.06% -0.02%
125 ENG Luke Donald 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.2% 0.14% MC
126 RSA Thriston Lawrence 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.09% T62
127 NZL Steven Alker 2000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02% MC
128 USA J.J. Killeen 2000 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02%
129 THA Sadom Kaewkanjana 2000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02% MC
130 USA Wyatt Worthington II 2000 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02% MC
131 RSA Ockie Strydom 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.3% 0.27% MC
132 USA Sihwan Kim 2500 (Betway: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.06% 0.03% T62
133 USA Greg Koch 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.15% 0.14% MC
134 USA Michael Block 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.06% T15
135 KOR Y.E. Yang 5000 (Betway: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
136 CAN Matt Hill 5000 (Betway: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04%
137 USA Ben Kern 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
138 USA John Somers 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
139 USA Shaun Micheel 5000 (Betway: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04%
140 USA Steve Holmes 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
141 USA Alexander Beach 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
142 USA Anthony Cordes 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
143 USA Kenny Pigman 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
144 USA Colin Inglis 5000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% MC
145 SWE David Lingmerth 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 GER Stephan Jaeger 0% 0% 0% 0% T50
147 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
148 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
149 USA Lee Hodges 0% 0% 0% 0% T55
150 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 USA J.J. Killeen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 USA Samuel Stevens 0% 0% 0% 0% T72
153 USA Eric Cole 0% 0% 0% 0% T15
154 Matt Cahill 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 Jeremy Wells 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 Braden Shattuck 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 Chris French 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 Jesse Droemer 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
159 Josh Speight 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
160 Russell Grove 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
161 Gabe Reynolds 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -3.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 10.1% 7.7%
2 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 62.9% 8.4%
3 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 43% 9.4%
4 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 44.7% 10.7%
5 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 52.5% 16.6%
6 Star Sports 8 @ 1/5 55.7% 19.2%
7 VBet 8 @ 1/5 57.2% 20.3%
8 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 36.4% 20.6%
9 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 36.4% 20.6%
10 Coral 12 @ 1/6 82.2% 20.8%
11 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 82.2% 21.3%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 37.3% 21.4%
13 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 59.2% 21.8%
14 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 59.6% 22.1%
15 Betfair Sportsbook 12 @ 1/5 107.3% 22.2%
16 Sporting Index 7 @ 1/5 48.6% 23.1%
17 LiveScore Bet 8 @ 1/5 62.9% 24.7%
18 QuinnBet 8 @ 1/5 66.6% 27.5%
19 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 55.3% 28.5%
20 BetUK 7 @ 1/5 55.3% 28.5%
21 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 57.9% 30.7%
22 Betway 8 @ 1/5 71% 31%