Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -7.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 62.7

Total Profit: -37.4

Dubai Desert Classic

27/01/2022 - 30/01/2022

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 8 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 11.11% 10.13% 4.79% -5.34% 3
2 NOR Viktor Hovland 10 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 8.29% 3.45% -4.83% 1
3 USA Collin Morikawa 12 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 7.01% 2.98% -4.03% T18
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.8% 1.8% -3% T4
5 ESP Sergio Garcia 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.96% 1.36% -2.6% T12
6 IRL Shane Lowry 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.14% 1.35% -1.79% T24
7 AUS Adam Scott 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.94% 1.51% -1.43% T9
8 BEL Thomas Pieters 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.94% 1.41% -1.53% T12
9 ENG Paul Casey 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.94% 0.81% -2.13% T12
10 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.68% 1.54% -1.14% T12 11.61
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.68% 1.24% -1.44% T24
12 ENG Ian Poulter 35 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.53% 1.33% -1.2% MC
13 RSA Dean Burmester 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.98% 1.29% -0.69% T55 8.58
14 RSA Erik van Rooyen 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.79% 2.01% 0.23% T4 (tied w/5) 7.74 +20.9
15 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.79% 0.93% -0.85% MC 7.74
16 AUS Lucas Herbert 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.49% 1.16% -0.34% T18 6.47
17 ENG Sam Horsfield 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.36% 1.25% -0.11% T4 (tied w/5) 5.89 +41.8
18 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.36% 0.88% -0.48% MC 5.89
19 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.36% 0.72% -0.64% T47 5.89
20 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.28% 1.39% 0.11% MC 5.56
21 ESP Adria Arnaus 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.28% 1.05% -0.23% MC 5.56
22 ENG Laurie Canter 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.2% 1.04% -0.16% T73 5.2
23 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.2% 1.02% -0.17% T47 5.2
24 JPN Takumi Kanaya 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.96% 0.96% 0% MC 4.16
25 ENG Lee Westwood 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.96% 0.84% -0.12% T32 4.16
26 IND Shubhankar Sharma 100 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.9% 0.8% -0.1% 75 3.91
27 FRA Romain Langasque 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.82% 0.41% -0.42% T18 3.56
28 AUT Matthias Schwab 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.69% 1.09% 0.41% MC 2.97
29 SWE Alexander Bjork 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.64% 1.42% 0.78% T60
30 FRA Victor Perez 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.64% 0.6% -0.04% T60
31 ENG Callum Shinkwin 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.6% 0.57% -0.04% MC
32 ENG Danny Willett 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.6% 0.83% 0.23% MC
33 ENG Jordan L Smith 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.56% 0.92% 0.36% T9
34 CHN Hao Tong Li 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.56% 0.65% 0.09% T32
35 FRA Victor Dubuisson 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.56% 0.46% -0.11% MC
36 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.56% 0.35% -0.22% T35
37 POL Adrian Meronk 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.53% 0.9% 0.37% T4
38 RSA Charl Schwartzel 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.53% 0.69% 0.16% T76
39 ENG Matt Wallace 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.53% 0.45% -0.08% T35
40 USA Sean Crocker 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.5% 1.01% 0.51% MC
41 FRA Antoine Rozner 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.5% 0.6% 0.09% T47
42 RSA Garrick Higgo 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.5% 0.57% 0.07% T47
43 RSA Justin Harding 189 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.5/1) 0.53% 0.48% 0.86% 0.38% T4
44 DEN Jeff Winther 189 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.5/1) 0.53% 0.48% 0.72% 0.24% MC
45 ENG Andy Sullivan 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.46% 0.56% 0.1% T47
46 USA Johannes Veerman 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.44% 1.42% 0.98% T35
47 USA John Catlin 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.44% 1.02% 0.58% T60
48 FIN Kalle Samooja 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.44% 0.29% -0.14% T12
49 NZL Ryan Fox 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.42% 0.58% 0.16% T26
50 CHN Wu Ashun 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.4% 0.39% -0.01% T30
51 ENG Richard Bland 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.38% 1.34% 0.96% 2
52 SWE Henrik Stenson 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.38% 1.32% 0.94% T60
53 SCO Grant Forrest 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.38% 1.31% 0.93% T43
54 SCO Scott Jamieson 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.38% 0.7% 0.32% T35
55 ITA Francesco Laporta 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.36% 1.2% 0.83% MC
56 NED Wil Besseling 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.34% 0.52% 0.18% MC
57 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.31% 0.81% 0.5% MC
58 FIN Mikko Korhonen 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.31% 0.64% 0.33% MC
59 ENG Daniel Gavins 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% T55
60 AUS Jason Scrivener 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.3% 0.44% 0.14% MC
61 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 1.39% 1.12% MC
62 FRA Alexander Levy 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.96% 0.69% MC
63 ENG Marcus Armitage 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.79% 0.52% T12
64 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.64% 0.36% T35
65 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.57% 0.3% T66
66 ITA Guido Migliozzi 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.47% 0.19% MC
67 WAL Jamie Donaldson 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.27% 1.23% 0.97% MC
68 RSA Brandon Stone 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.27% 0.56% 0.29% T26
69 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.26% 0.83% 0.57% MC
70 SCO Stephen Gallacher 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.26% 0.44% 0.18% MC
71 ENG Matthew Jordan 351 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.7/1) 0.28% 0.26% 0.92% 0.66% T70
72 IRL Padraig Harrington 351 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.7/1) 0.28% 0.26% 0.76% 0.5% T9
73 ITA Edoardo Molinari 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.24% 0.78% 0.54% T26
74 SWE Joakim Lagergren 398 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.4/1) 0.25% 0.23% 0.86% 0.64% T18
75 ENG James Morrison 398 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.4/1) 0.25% 0.23% 0.73% 0.5% MC
76 ESP Adrian Otaegui 408 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.4/1) 0.24% 0.22% 0.51% 0.29% T47
77 RSA George Coetzee 446 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.2/1) 0.22% 0.2% 0.45% 0.25% T47
78 AUS Wade Ormsby 455 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60/1) 0.22% 0.2% 0.73% 0.53% MC
79 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 455 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60/1) 0.22% 0.2% 0.58% 0.38% T18
80 ESP Jorge Campillo 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.19% 1.05% 0.86% T55
81 ESP Nacho Elvira 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.19% 0.56% 0.38% T35
82 ENG Ross Fisher 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.19% 0.24% 0.05% T47
83 ENG Robert Rock 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.52% 0.33% MC
84 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% 0.69% 0.5% MC
85 AUS Maverick Antcliff 500 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% T66
86 RSA Darren Fichardt 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% MC
87 SCO Connor Syme 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% 0.17% -0.01% MC
88 NED Joost Luiten 503 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.6/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.38% 0.2% MC
89 FIN Sami Valimaki 522 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.4/1) 0.19% 0.17% 0.33% 0.16% MC
90 THA Jazz Janewattananond 541 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.1/1) 0.18% 0.17% 0.81% 0.64% T60
91 FRA Julien Guerrier 550 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.9/1) 0.18% 0.17% 0.48% 0.31% T26
92 ENG David Horsey 579 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.6/1) 0.17% 0.16% 0.97% 0.81% MC
93 SCO Richie Ramsay 579 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.6/1) 0.17% 0.16% 0.46% 0.3% T32
94 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 579 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.6/1) 0.17% 0.16% 0.41% 0.26% MC
95 RSA Justin Walters 588 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.4/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.5% 0.34% T35
96 ESP Alejandro Canizares 626 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.8/1) 0.16% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% MC
97 ENG Jack Singh Brar 655 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.3/1) 0.15% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% MC
98 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 683 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.8/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.68% 0.55% T73
99 SWE Marcus Kinhult 683 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.8/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.26% 0.13% MC
100 ITA Nino Bertasio 712 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.2/1) 0.14% 0.13% 0.63% 0.5% T30
101 ENG Dale Whitnell 712 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.2/1) 0.14% 0.13% 0.62% 0.49% MC
102 GER Maximilian Kieffer 712 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.2/1) 0.14% 0.13% 0.51% 0.38% MC
103 SCO David Law 721 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84/1) 0.14% 0.13% 0.7% 0.57% T55
104 ENG Matthew Southgate 721 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84/1) 0.14% 0.13% 0.54% 0.41% MC
105 ITA Andrea Pavan 731 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.9/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.16% 0.03% T18
106 SCO David Drysdale 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.28% 0.16% T76
107 ENG Steven Brown 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.25% 0.13% MC
108 SWE Rikard Karlberg 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.22% 0.1% MC
109 ENG Paul Waring 759 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.2/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.3% 0.18% MC
110 RSA Thriston Lawrence 769 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.1/1) 0.13% 0.12% 1.69% 1.57% MC
111 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 883 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 97.4/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.43% 0.33% T70
112 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.69% 0.59% MC
113 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.53% 0.44% T43
114 ENG Chris Paisley 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.45% 0.35% MC
115 NED Darius Van Driel 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.44% 0.34% MC
116 AUS Scott Hend 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.36% 0.26% MC
117 ENG Chris Wood 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.29% 0.19% MC
118 SCO Marc Warren 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.25% 0.16% MC
119 RSA Richard Sterne 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.18% 0.08% MC
120 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.17% 0.08% T60
121 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
122 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% T43
123 USA Josh Hill 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.19% 0.13% T55
124 SCO Colin Montgomerie 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.05% 0.19% 0.14% MC
125 THA Thongchai Jaidee 0% 0% 0% 0% T70
126 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T43
127 POR Ricardo Gouveia 0% 0% 0% 0% T66
128 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
129 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% T35
130 UAE Ahmed Skaik 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 USA Sam Bennett 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -7.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 42.6% 8.6%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 24.8% 10%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 12.5% 12.5%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 56.5% 19.3%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 56.5% 19.3%
6 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 48.7% 22.6%
7 QuinnBet 7 @ 1/5 49% 22.9%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 40.4% 23.8%
9 Coral 8 @ 1/5 63.8% 24.9%
10 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 64.6% 25.5%
11 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 55.8% 28.5%
12 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 69.6% 29.4%
13 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.6% 29.9%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 31.2%
15 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 31.2%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 31.7%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 32.5%
18 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 33.2%
19 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 33.2%
20 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.4% 37.8%
21 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 38.7%
22 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 43.3%