Market Analysis
Bookie Overround: 21.8 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %
Total Probability Staked: 23.9 %
Results
Total Staked: 100.1
Total Won: 35.7
Total Profit: -64.4
| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | Pos. Pos. | Stake | Returns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Jon Rahm | 6 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 14.29% | 11.71% | 2.98% | -8.73% | T9 | |||
| 2 |
| Xander Schauffele | 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 5.26% | 4.32% | 3.14% | -1.18% | T49 | |||
| 3 |
| Jordan Spieth | 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 4.76% | 3.9% | 3.49% | -0.41% | T34 | |||
| 4 |
| Justin Thomas | 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 4.76% | 3.9% | 3.41% | -0.5% | T22 | |||
| 5 |
| Collin Morikawa | 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 4.35% | 3.57% | 2.57% | -1% | T63 | |||
| 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | 22 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 4.35% | 3.57% | 1.15% | -2.42% | T6 | |||
| 7 |
| Brooks Koepka | 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.85% | 3.15% | 1.49% | -1.67% | T22 | |||
| 8 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.45% | 2.83% | 2.42% | -0.41% | T38 | |||
| 9 |
| Rory McIlroy | 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.45% | 2.83% | 2.41% | -0.42% | 4 | |||
| 10 |
| Cameron Smith | 28 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.45% | 2.83% | 1.73% | -1.1% | T34 | |||
| 11 |
| Tony Finau | 30 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.23% | 2.65% | 2.11% | -0.53% | T15 | |||
| 12 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 30 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.23% | 2.65% | 1.52% | -1.12% | 1 | |||
| 13 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.41% | 2.66% | 0.25% | T22 | 10.09 | ||
| 14 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 33 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.41% | 2.55% | 0.13% | 2 | |||
| 15 |
| Viktor Hovland | 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.41% | 1.54% | -0.88% | T17 | |||
| 16 |
| Abraham Ancer | 40 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 2% | 2.5% | 0.5% | T9 | 8.37 | ||
| 17 |
| Paul Casey | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 2% | 2.14% | 0.14% | T38 | 8.37 | ||
| 18 |
| Harris English | 40 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 2% | 1.77% | -0.23% | T26 | |||
| 19 |
| Daniel Berger | 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 2% | 1.32% | -0.68% | T26 | |||
| 20 |
| Webb Simpson | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 2% | 1.29% | -0.71% | T12 | |||
| 21 |
| Corey Conners | 45 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.78% | 2.63% | 0.85% | T22 | 7.46 | ||
| 22 |
| Shane Lowry | 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.78% | 2.31% | 0.52% | T26 | 7.46 | ||
| 23 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 50 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.61% | 2.62% | 1.01% | T46 | 6.73 | ||
| 24 |
| Sam Burns | 60 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.34% | 2.42% | 1.07% | 8 | 5.63 | ||
| 25 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 60 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.34% | 1.22% | -0.12% | T29 | |||
| 26 |
| Sungjae Im | 66 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.22% | 1.32% | 0.09% | 3 | |||
| 27 |
| Jason Kokrak | 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 1.01% | 2.09% | 1.08% | T15 | 4.24 | ||
| 28 |
| Alexander Noren | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 1.01% | 1.41% | 0.39% | T9 | 4.24 | ||
| 29 |
| Russell Henley | 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 1.01% | 1.14% | 0.13% | T60 | |||
| 30 |
| Cameron Tringale | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 1.01% | 1.06% | 0.05% | T52 | |||
| 31 |
| Kevin Na | 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 1.01% | 1.01% | 0% | T17 | |||
| 32 |
| Keegan Bradley | 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.35% | 0.45% | T60 | 3.77 | ||
| 33 |
| Brian Harman | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% | 2.09% | 1.28% | T29 | 3.4 | ||
| 34 |
| Billy Horschel | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% | 1.61% | 0.8% | T52 | 3.4 | ||
| 35 |
| Charley Hoffman | 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% | 1.36% | 0.55% | T38 | 3.4 | ||
| 36 |
| Harold Varner III | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% | 1.23% | 0.42% | T12 | 3.4 | ||
| 37 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% | 1.12% | 0.3% | 5 | 3.4 | +35.7 | |
| 38 |
| Cameron Champ | 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% | 0.88% | 0.06% | T66 | |||
| 39 |
| Sergio Garcia | 110 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.74% | 0.9% | 0.16% | T6 | 3.1 | ||
| 40 |
| Maverick McNealy | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.74% | 0.76% | 0.02% | T63 | |||
| 41 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% | 1.1% | 0.44% | T38 | 2.73 | ||
| 42 |
| Kevin Streelman | 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.65% | 1.07% | 0.42% | T52 | 2.73 | ||
| 43 |
| Kevin Kisner | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% | 0.99% | 0.34% | T66 | 2.73 | ||
| 44 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% | 0.92% | 0.27% | T29 | 2.73 | ||
| 45 |
| Branden Grace | 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% | 0.89% | 0.24% | T52 | 2.73 | ||
| 46 |
| Siwoo Kim | 140 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.58% | 1.03% | 0.45% | T29 | |||
| 47 |
| Marc Leishman | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.58% | 0.77% | 0.19% | 51 | |||
| 48 |
| Ryan Palmer | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.58% | 0.68% | 0.1% | T57 | |||
| 49 |
| Lee Westwood | 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.54% | 2.18% | 1.64% | T34 | |||
| 50 |
| Stewart Cink | 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.54% | 1.28% | 0.73% | T38 | |||
| 51 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.54% | 1.2% | 0.66% | T46 | |||
| 52 |
| Cameron Davis | 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.96% | 0.42% | T29 | |||
| 53 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.94% | 0.4% | T52 | |||
| 54 |
| Talor Gooch | 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.71% | 0.16% | T57 | |||
| 55 |
| Max Homa | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.51% | 0.73% | 0.22% | T63 | |||
| 56 |
| Phil Mickelson | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.47% | 1.04% | 0.58% | T66 | |||
| 57 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.47% | 0.5% | 0.04% | T66 | |||
| 58 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.41% | 1.01% | 0.6% | T17 | |||
| 59 |
| Chris Kirk | 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.41% | 0.79% | 0.38% | 48 | |||
| 60 |
| Keith Mitchell | 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.41% | 0.7% | 0.29% | T57 | |||
| 61 |
| Aaron Wise | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.41% | 0.6% | 0.19% | T17 | |||
| 62 |
| Lucas Glover | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.33% | 0.96% | 0.63% | T38 | |||
| 63 |
| Patton Kizzire | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.33% | 0.92% | 0.59% | T34 | |||
| 64 |
| Matt Jones | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.33% | 0.77% | 0.45% | T38 | |||
| 65 |
| Tom Hoge | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.33% | 0.62% | 0.29% | T49 | |||
| 66 |
| Harry Higgs | 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.33% | 0.56% | 0.23% | T38 | |||
| 67 |
| Hudson Swafford | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.27% | 0.91% | 0.64% | T17 | |||
| 68 |
| Robert Streb | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.23% | 0.49% | 0.26% | T60 | |||
| 69 |
| Kyounghoon Lee | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | T12 | ||||
Market Analysis
Overround of best available: 21.8 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 30.1% | 16.2% |
| 2 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.1% | 17.6% |
| 3 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.5% | 17.9% |
| 4 | 888Sport | 7 @ 1/5 | 42.4% | 19.5% |
| 5 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 31.3% | 19.8% |
| 6 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 43.8% | 20.7% |
| 7 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 43.8% | 20.7% |
| 8 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 35.6% | 21.2% |
| 9 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 35.8% | 21.4% |
| 10 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 35.8% | 21.4% |
| 11 | Mansion Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 35.8% | 21.4% |
| 12 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 44.5% | 21.4% |
| 13 | Betway | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.4% | 24.5% |
| 14 | Unibet | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.5% | 28.3% |
| 15 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 66.7% | 29.6% |
| 16 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.7% | 34.9% |