Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

THE NORTHERN TRUST

19/08/2021 - 22/08/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 9 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 10% 7.17% 3.37% -3.8% 3
2 USA Jordan Spieth 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.78% 2.7% -2.08% 73
3 USA Collin Morikawa 18 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.77% 4.02% 0.24% MC
4 USA Dustin Johnson 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.77% 1.15% -2.63% MC
5 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.42% 1.3% -2.12% T16
6 NIR Rory McIlroy 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.12% 1.52% -1.59% T43
7 USA Brooks Koepka 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.76% 2.17% -0.59% T31
8 USA Justin Thomas 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.76% 1.46% -1.29% T4
9 MEX Abraham Ancer 28 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.89% -0.58% T64
10 USA Bryson DeChambeau 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.68% -0.79% T31
11 USA Scottie Scheffler 28 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.51% -0.97% T43
12 USA Daniel Berger 33 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.87% -0.24% T56
13 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.39% -0.72% T43
14 USA Webb Simpson 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.12% -0.99% T47
15 USA Patrick Cantlay 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.05% -1.06% T11
16 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 2.46% 0.46% T43 8.92
17 ENG Paul Casey 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 1.92% -0.07% T64 8.92
18 AUS Cameron Smith 35 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 1.19% -0.8% 2
19 USA Harris English 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.86% 0.11% T31 7.84
20 AUS Adam Scott 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 0.88% -0.87% MC
21 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 55 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 0.86% -0.42% MC
22 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 60 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 1.48% 0.3% MC 5.27
23 USA Tony Finau 60 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 0.79% -0.38% 1
24 CAN Corey Conners 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 1.56% 0.49% T8 4.8
25 CHI Joaquin Niemann 66 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 1.41% 0.34% T47 4.8
26 USA Sam Burns 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 1.19% 0.12% T21 4.8
27 KOR Sungjae Im 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.9% -0.17% T16 4.8
28 USA Kevin Kisner 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.87% -0.2% MC 4.8
29 USA Jason Kokrak 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 1.4% 0.39% MC 4.53
30 USA Russell Henley 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 0.8% -0.21% T56
31 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 1.34% 0.46% T31 3.97
32 USA Brian Harman 80 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 1.31% 0.42% 75 3.97
33 IRL Shane Lowry 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.89% 1.09% 0.21% T11 3.97
34 ESP Sergio Garcia 90 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.05% 0.26% MC 3.53
35 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.98% 0.27% MC 3.18
36 KOR Siwoo Kim 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.89% 0.18% MC 3.18
37 USA Kevin Streelman 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.84% 0.13% T64 3.18
38 AUS Jason Day 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.48% -0.23% MC
39 USA Kevin Na 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.65% 1.15% 0.5% T8 2.9
40 USA Billy Horschel 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 1.17% 0.6% T31 2.55
41 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.94% 0.37% MC 2.55
42 USA Keegan Bradley 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.75% 0.18% T11 2.55
43 USA Cameron Tringale 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.7% 0.13% T21 2.55
44 USA Cameron Champ 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.61% 0.04% T27 2.55
45 USA Charley Hoffman 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 1.07% 0.6% T21
46 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.03% 0.55% MC
47 USA Phil Mickelson 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.83% 0.36% MC
48 USA Bubba Watson 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.72% 0.24% MC
49 USA Gary Woodland 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.71% 0.24% 74
50 AUS Marc Leishman 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.67% 0.2% T47
51 COL Sebastian Munoz 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.6% 0.12% T21
52 USA Maverick McNealy 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.59% 0.12% T27
53 USA Ryan Palmer 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.59% 0.11% MC
54 USA Brendon Todd 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.57% 0.09% MC
55 SWE Alexander Noren 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.49% 0.01% T4
56 USA Matthew Wolff 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.35% -0.13% MC
57 USA Mackenzie Hughes 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.8% 0.39% T27
58 RSA Garrick Higgo 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.76% 0.35% T64
59 USA Max Homa 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.57% 0.16% T47
60 USA Brandt Snedeker 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.53% 0.12% T47
61 CAN Roger Sloan 175 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.52% 0.12% MC
62 IRL Seamus Power 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.5% 0.09% T31
63 TPE C.T. Pan 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.49% 0.08% MC
64 ENG Lee Westwood 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 1.14% 0.79% T27
65 USA Stewart Cink 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.81% 0.45% T21
66 USA Harold Varner III 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.8% 0.45% T11
67 RSA Charl Schwartzel 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.76% 0.4% MC
68 AUS Cameron Davis 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.67% 0.31% T31
69 ENG Matt Wallace 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.65% 0.29% WD
70 USA Chris Kirk 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.64% 0.28% T56
71 CAN Adam Hadwin 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.63% 0.27% MC
72 RSA Erik van Rooyen 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.61% 0.26% 7
73 USA Talor Gooch 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.53% 0.17% T31
74 MEX Carlos Ortiz 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.49% 0.14% T47
75 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.75% 0.47% T47
76 USA Lucas Glover 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.66% 0.37% MC
77 USA Joel Dahmen 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.6% 0.32% T31
78 USA Patton Kizzire 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.52% 0.23% T56
79 USA Chez Reavie 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.5% 0.21% T31
80 USA Troy Merritt 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.46% 0.17% MC
81 USA Doug Ghim 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.35% 0.06% T31
82 USA Hank Lebioda 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.41% 0.15% MC
83 USA Matt Kuchar 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.61% 0.37% MC
84 AUS Matt Jones 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.6% 0.36% MC
85 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.54% 0.31% MC
86 USA Scott Piercy 300 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.51% 0.27% T64
87 AUT Sepp Straka 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.44% 0.21% MC
88 USA Keith Mitchell 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.38% 0.14% T8
89 USA Pat Perez 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% T16
90 USA JT Poston 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% MC
91 RSA Dylan Frittelli 300 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% T56
92 USA Zach Johnson 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.33% 0.09% T47
93 USA Aaron Wise 300 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% T21
94 USA Kyle Stanley 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.22% -0.02% MC
95 USA Brandon Hagy 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.75% 0.54% MC
96 USA Adam Schenk 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.57% 0.36% T31
97 SWE Henrik Norlander 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.28% 0.07% MC
98 USA Luke List 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.25% 0.04% 70
99 USA Brendan Steele 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.24% 0.04% MC
100 USA Andrew Putnam 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.59% 0.41% T56
101 USA Lanto Griffin 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.52% 0.34% T64
102 USA Kramer Hickok 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.46% 0.28% T56
103 USA Brice Garnett 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.4% 0.22% MC
104 USA Chesson Hadley 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.37% 0.19% MC
105 USA Denny McCarthy 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% T71
106 SCO Martin Laird 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.31% 0.13% MC
107 USA Doc Redman 400 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.3% 0.12% MC
108 SCO Russell Knox 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.3% 0.12% MC
109 USA Sam Ryder 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.3% 0.12% MC
110 USA Scott Stallings 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.29% 0.11% MC
111 USA Tyler McCumber 500 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.22% MC
112 USA Robert Streb 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.22% T16
113 IND Anirban Lahiri 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% T56
114 USA Adam Long 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% MC
115 USA Harry Higgs 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% T16
116 USA Richy Werenski 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
117 USA Wyndham Clark 500 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
118 USA Matthew NeSmith 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% MC
119 USA Peter Malnati 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% T47
120 USA James Hahn 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.04% T71
121 USA Hudson Swafford 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.32% 0.2% T11
122 USA Tom Hoge 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.25% 0.13% T4
123 USA Brian Gay 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.05% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 51.2% 17%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.7% 21%
3 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 56.3% 21.1%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 56.6% 21.3%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 56.6% 21.3%
6 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 57.3% 21.9%
7 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 61.4% 25.1%
8 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 87.4% 26.3%
9 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 41.3% 28.8%
10 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.7% 32.1%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 51.4% 35.1%
12 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.3%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.3%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.3%
15 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.3%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 57.2% 43.4%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 59.7% 45.6%