Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 26.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 265.3

Total Profit: +165.2

WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play

24/03/2021 - 27/03/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.58% 4.13% -1.45% T42
2 USA Dustin Johnson 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.58% 2.75% -2.84% T28
3 ESP Jon Rahm 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.58% 2.19% -3.39% T5
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.58% 1.97% -3.61% T42
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.82% 2.84% -0.98% T28
6 USA Collin Morikawa 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.46% 2.02% -1.44% T56
7 ENG Paul Casey 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.16% 2.28% -0.87% T28
8 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.79% 2.55% -0.24% T42
9 USA Patrick Cantlay 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.79% 2.26% -0.53% T18
10 USA Jordan Spieth 25 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.79% 1.88% -0.91% T9
11 USA Patrick Reed 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.79% 1.58% -1.22% T28
12 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.5% 2.25% -0.25% T56
13 USA Xander Schauffele 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.5% 2.23% -0.27% T18
14 USA Tony Finau 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.34% 2% -0.34% T28
15 USA Webb Simpson 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.13% 2.28% 0.14% T28
16 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.13% 2% -0.14% T42
17 USA Daniel Berger 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.13% 1.31% -0.83% T18
18 AUS Cameron Smith 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.02% 2.91% 0.89% T28 8.99
19 ESP Sergio Garcia 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.02% 1.66% -0.36% T5
20 AUS Jason Day 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.02% 0.63% -1.39% T42
21 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 2.41% 0.64% T42 7.89
22 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 2.21% 0.44% T5 (tied w/4) 7.89 +35.5
23 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 1.46% -0.31% T61
24 USA Scottie Scheffler 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.58% 1.01% -0.57% 2
25 CAN Corey Conners 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.98% 0.55% T61 6.35
26 CHI Joaquin Niemann 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.77% 0.35% T18 6.35
27 USA Will Zalatoris 50 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.61% 0.18% T28
28 MEX Abraham Ancer 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.35% -0.07% T18
29 USA Kevin Kisner 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.19% 2.04% 0.85% T18 5.31
30 ENG Lee Westwood 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 2.71% 1.63% T18 4.83
31 USA Jason Kokrak 66 (Unibet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.08% 2.57% 1.49% T42 4.83
32 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.84% 0.75% T56 4.83
33 KOR Siwoo Kim 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.17% 0.08% T56
34 USA Billy Horschel 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 1.96% 0.94% 1 4.56 +196.1
35 USA Russell Henley 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 1.73% 0.71% T28 4.56
36 USA Max Homa 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 1.42% 0.39% T18 4.56
37 USA Harris English 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 1.28% 0.26% T42 4.56
38 USA Ryan Palmer 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.42% 0.52% 17 4
39 USA Bubba Watson 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.03% 0.14% T9
40 USA Brian Harman 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.03% 0.13% T5
41 ENG Matt Wallace 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.8% 0.88% 0.08% T28
42 USA Kevin Na 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 2.06% 1.34% T42 3.21
43 USA Lanto Griffin 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 1.82% 1.1% T61 3.21
44 FRA Victor Perez 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 1.8% 1.08% 4 3.21 +33.7
45 ENG Ian Poulter 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.85% 0.13% T9
46 AUS Marc Leishman 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.83% 0.12% T28
47 MEX Carlos Ortiz 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 2.1% 1.44% T42 2.92
48 IRL Shane Lowry 110 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.65% 1.58% 0.93% T42 2.92
49 USA Brendon Todd 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 0.58% -0.07% T42
50 SCO Robert MacIntyre 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 2.17% 1.6% T9 2.57
51 USA Talor Gooch 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.08% 0.5% T56 2.57
52 USA Matt Kuchar 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.4% -0.18% 3
53 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.52% 0.04% T9
54 USA Kevin Streelman 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.43% -0.05% T9
55 USA Matthew Wolff 150 (Spreadex: 4 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.38% -0.1% T28
56 FRA Antoine Rozner 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 1.51% 1.1% T18
57 ENG Andy Sullivan 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 1.18% 0.82% T42
58 USA JT Poston 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.86% 0.5% T28
59 USA Adam Long 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.78% 0.42% T28
60 USA Mackenzie Hughes 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.5% 0.14% T9
61 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 0% 0% 0% 0% T42
62 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
63 RSA Dylan Frittelli 0% 0% 0% 0% T9
64 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T61

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 26.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 44.9% 12.5%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 45.6% 13%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 45.8% 13.2%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 45.8% 13.2%
5 Bet365 4 @ 1/4 32.7% 32.7%
6 William Hill 4 @ 1/4 35.4% 35.4%
7 Betfred 4 @ 1/4 35.6% 35.6%
8 VBet 4 @ 1/4 36.9% 36.9%
9 Unibet 4 @ 1/4 37.7% 37.7%
10 Sporting Index 4 @ 1/4 39.1% 39.1%
11 GentingBet 4 @ 1/4 39.3% 39.3%
12 Bet Victor 4 @ 1/4 39.9% 39.9%
13 888Sport 4 @ 1/4 40.9% 40.9%
14 Betway 4 @ 1/4 41.9% 41.9%
15 Redzone 4 @ 1/4 45.7% 45.7%
16 10Bet 4 @ 1/4 45.7% 45.7%
17 Sport Nation 4 @ 1/4 45.7% 45.7%
18 Mansion Bet 4 @ 1/4 45.7% 45.7%
19 Spreadex 4 @ 1/4 48.3% 48.3%