Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 38.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 78.2

Total Profit: -21.9

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

04/03/2021 - 07/03/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.49% 2.6% -5.89% T10
2 USA Bryson DeChambeau 11 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.66% 2.62% -3.04% 1
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 12 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.23% 3.16% -2.07% T49
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.53% 3.52% -1.01% T21
5 KOR Sungjae Im 18 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.58% 1.57% -2% T21
6 USA Patrick Reed 20 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.24% 2.07% -1.16% MC
7 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 20 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.24% 1.71% -1.52% T10
8 ENG Paul Casey 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.34% 2.42% 0.08% T10 10.34
9 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.34% 1.37% -0.97% T18
10 ITA Francesco Molinari 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.19% 1.6% -0.6% MC
11 USA Jordan Spieth 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.19% 1.58% -0.61% T4
12 AUS Jason Day 30 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.19% 1.06% -1.13% T31
13 USA Sam Burns 35 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.89% 1.99% 0.1% MC 8.33
14 USA Billy Horschel 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.89% 1.72% -0.16% MC
15 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 2.05% 0.39% T10 7.32
16 USA Will Zalatoris 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 1.54% -0.11% T10
17 USA Jason Kokrak 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 1.51% -0.14% T8
18 USA Kevin Na 45 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.48% 1.83% 0.35% T43 6.52
19 AUS Marc Leishman 45 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.48% 1.25% -0.23% MC
20 USA Harris English 55 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.21% 2.47% 1.25% T26 5.36
21 USA Max Homa 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.21% 1.3% 0.09% T10 5.36
22 ENG Justin Rose 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.01% 1.03% 0.01% WD
23 USA Rickie Fowler 70 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 0.46% -0.49% 72
24 USA Cameron Tringale 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.89% 1.63% 0.74% T31 3.95
25 AUS Cameron Davis 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.89% 1.39% 0.5% MC 3.95
26 USA Kevin Kisner 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.89% 1.03% 0.14% T36 3.95
27 USA Lanto Griffin 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 1.38% 0.54% T21 3.71
28 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 1.25% 0.41% 7 3.71 +31.5
29 USA Brendon Todd 80 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.94% 0.1% T57 3.71
30 USA Talor Gooch 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.7% -0.14% T43
31 KOR Siwoo Kim 85 (VBet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.16% 0.79% 1.28% 0.49% WD 3.49
32 CAN Corey Conners 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 1.63% 0.96% 3 2.97 +31.2
33 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.77% 0.09% T26 2.97
34 USA Charley Hoffman 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.73% 0.06% T10
35 IRL Shane Lowry 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.72% 0.05% MC
36 CAN Adam Hadwin 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.58% -0.1% MC
37 AUS Matt Jones 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 1.38% 0.77% MC 2.71
38 ENG Ian Poulter 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.71% 0.1% T26 2.71
39 ARG Emiliano Grillo 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.64% 0.03% T21
40 USA Maverick McNealy 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.58% -0.03% T49
41 USA Luke List 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.26% -0.35% T63
42 SCO Robert MacIntyre 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.81% 1.27% T36 2.38
43 USA Wyndham Clark 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.54% 1% MC 2.38
44 FRA Victor Perez 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.32% 0.78% T68 2.38
45 USA Chris Kirk 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.25% 0.71% T8 (tied w/2) 2.38 +15.5
46 SWE Henrik Norlander 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.73% 0.19% 71 2.38
47 USA JT Poston 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.71% 0.17% MC 2.38
48 USA Matthew NeSmith 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.7% 0.16% MC 2.38
49 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.62% 0.09% T49 2.38
50 USA Andrew Putnam 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.61% 0.07% T4
51 USA Brendan Steele 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.5% -0.04% T18
52 KOR Byeong Hun An 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.44% -0.1% T43
53 USA Keegan Bradley 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.48% 0.47% -0.01% T10
54 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.94% 0.49% T31
55 ENG Matt Wallace 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.91% 0.46% T18
56 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.72% 0.27% T57
57 USA Patton Kizzire 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.63% 0.18% T57
58 USA Zach Johnson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.6% 0.15% T49
59 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.59% 0.14% MC
60 ENG Lee Westwood 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.58% 0.13% 2
61 USA Patrick Rodgers 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.4% -0.05% T57
62 USA Aaron Wise 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.39% -0.06% MC
63 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.32% -0.13% MC
64 ENG Danny Willett 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.32% -0.13% T31
65 SWE Henrik Stenson 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.29% -0.16% MC
66 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.14% -0.31% T43
67 USA Doug Ghim 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 0.82% 0.4% T36
68 SCO Russell Knox 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 0.48% 0.06% 70
69 USA Harold Varner III 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 0.4% -0.02% T21
70 USA Cameron Champ 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.67% 0.29% MC
71 CAN Nick Taylor 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.65% 0.26% MC
72 USA John Huh 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.55% 0.16% T63
73 USA Charles Howell III 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.48% 0.1% T36
74 USA Chez Reavie 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.47% 0.08% T49
75 USA Steve Stricker 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.71% 0.38% T63
76 USA Tom Hoge 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.68% 0.34% MC
77 USA Peter Malnati 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.66% 0.32% MC
78 USA Adam Long 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.61% 0.28% MC
79 USA Lucas Glover 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.46% 0.12% T66
80 USA Kyle Stanley 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.4% 0.06% MC
81 USA William Gordon 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.34% 0% T49
82 AUS Cameron Percy 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.3% -0.04% MC
83 NIR Graeme McDowell 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.19% -0.15% MC
84 SCO Martin Laird 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.78% 0.47% T43
85 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.58% 0.28% MC
86 RSA Charl Schwartzel 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.37% 0.07% MC
87 AUT Sepp Straka 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.83% 0.56% MC
88 SVK Rory Sabbatini 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.61% 0.33% MC
89 TPE C.T. Pan 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.59% 0.31% MC
90 USA Hudson Swafford 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.39% 0.12% MC
91 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.33% 0.06% T4
92 USA Brandt Snedeker 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.26% -0.01% T68
93 USA Doc Redman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.24% -0.03% T66
94 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.61% 0.38% MC
95 USA Austin Cook 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.58% 0.35% MC
96 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.51% 0.28% T26
97 USA Mark Hubbard 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.42% 0.19% T43
98 USA Kramer Hickok 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.4% 0.17% MC
99 USA Robby Shelton 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.3% 0.08% MC
100 NZL Danny Lee 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.3% 0.07% T49
101 USA Jason Dufner 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.18% -0.05% T36
102 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.18% -0.05% T36
103 USA Tyler Duncan 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.41% 0.22% T57
104 USA Denny McCarthy 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.25% 0.06% T26
105 USA Brian Gay 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.6% 0.43% MC
106 THA Jazz Janewattananond 400 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% 0.45% 0.28% T57
107 IND Anirban Lahiri 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% MC
108 USA Robert Streb 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.87% 0.74% MC
109 IRL Padraig Harrington 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.52% 0.39% T31
110 USA Tyler McCumber 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.21% MC
111 USA Jim Herman 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.14% MC
112 COL Camilo Villegas 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
113 USA Matt Every 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.15% 0.02% MC
114 GER Matthias Schmid 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.09% -0.04% MC
115 USA John Augenstein 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.22% 0.13% MC
116 USA Tim Herron 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.09% 0.05% MC
117 USA Kamaiu Johnson 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.1% 0.07% MC
118 USA Paul Goydos 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.09% 0.06% MC
119 USA Rod Perry 2500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.09% 0.06% MC
120 USA Robert Gamez 5000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.09% 0.08% DQ
121 USA Pat Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% T36
122 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
123 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T49

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 38.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 51% 17.1%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 54.9% 20.1%
3 VBet 8 @ 1/5 57.7% 22.3%
4 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 57.9% 22.4%
5 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 59.5% 23.8%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.2%
7 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.2%
8 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 89.7% 28.1%
9 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 50.6% 34.4%
10 Betway 7 @ 1/5 60.6% 34.6%
11 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 55.7% 38.9%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.7% 38.9%
13 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.7% 38.9%
14 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 57.4% 40.4%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56% 42.2%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 58.1% 44.2%
19 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.7%