Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 118.4

Total Profit: +18.2

The Genesis Invitational

18/02/2021 - 21/02/2021

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 5 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 16.67% 11.38% 5.27% -6.11% T8
2 USA Justin Thomas 11 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.69% 2.28% -3.41% MC
3 NIR Rory McIlroy 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.25% 2.58% -2.67% MC
4 ESP Jon Rahm 12 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.25% 2.48% -2.78% T5
5 USA Xander Schauffele 14 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.55% 3.33% -1.22% T15
6 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.55% 1.58% -2.97% MC
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.02% 2.21% -1.81% T15
8 USA Brooks Koepka 22 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 2.97% 2.42% -0.55% T38
9 USA Tony Finau 25 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.63% 2.76% 0.14% 2 11.56 +34.7
10 USA Collin Morikawa 28 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.36% 1.4% -0.96% T43
11 NOR Viktor Hovland 30 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.2% 1.87% -0.33% T5
12 AUS Adam Scott 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.01% 0.92% -1.09% T38
13 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 35 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 1.82% -0.07% MC 8.35
14 USA Jordan Spieth 35 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 0.7% -1.19% T15
15 USA Bubba Watson 45 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.48% 1.73% 0.25% MC 6.54
16 CHI Joaquin Niemann 45 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.48% 1.54% 0.06% T43 6.54
17 USA Scottie Scheffler 50 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 1.56% 0.22% T20 5.9
18 USA Max Homa 60 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.12% 0.64% -0.48% 1
19 ESP Sergio Garcia 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1.66% 0.64% MC 4.49
20 AUS Marc Leishman 66 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.02% 0.58% -0.44% T32
21 MEX Abraham Ancer 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 2.06% 1.1% MC 4.24
22 USA Kevin Na 70 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 1.53% 0.57% T38 4.24
23 USA Matthew Wolff 70 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 1.52% 0.55% T64 4.24
24 USA Russell Henley 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.9% 1.97% 1.07% T38 3.96
25 MEX Carlos Ortiz 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 2.04% 1.2% MC 3.71
26 USA Will Zalatoris 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 1.9% 1.05% T15 3.71
27 AUS Cameron Smith 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 2.09% 1.34% 4 3.31 +31.4
28 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 1.5% 0.74% T5 (tied w/3) 3.31 +21
29 USA Jason Kokrak 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 1.33% 0.58% T32 3.31
30 USA Cameron Tringale 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 0.95% 0.2% T26 3.31
31 ITA Francesco Molinari 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 0.52% -0.23% T8
32 CAN Corey Conners 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.68% 1.43% 0.75% MC 2.98
33 KOR Siwoo Kim 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.68% 0.93% 0.26% MC 2.98
34 AUS Cameron Davis 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.68% 0.81% 0.13% T43 2.98
35 USA Sam Burns 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.68% 0.59% -0.09% 3 2.98 +31.3
36 USA Maverick McNealy 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.62% 0.62% 0.01% MC 2.71
37 USA Rickie Fowler 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.62% 0.46% -0.15% T20
38 USA Brendon Todd 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.39% 0.85% MC 2.39
39 USA Kevin Streelman 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.51% -0.03% T52 2.39
40 USA Gary Woodland 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.21% -0.34% MC
41 USA Charley Hoffman 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.48% 0.68% 0.19% T52
42 USA Brian Harman 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 1.76% 1.31% T43
43 USA James Hahn 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 1.17% 0.72% T15
44 USA Wyndham Clark 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.97% 0.51% T8
45 USA Matthew NeSmith 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.82% 0.37% T20
46 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.82% 0.37% T26
47 USA JT Poston 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.73% 0.28% T43
48 USA Talor Gooch 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.72% 0.27% T12
49 SWE Henrik Norlander 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.7% 0.25% MC
50 SCO Russell Knox 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.59% 0.14% MC
51 USA Keegan Bradley 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.49% 0.04% T60
52 USA Brendan Steele 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.46% 0% T43
53 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.45% 0% T26
54 USA Luke List 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.41% -0.04% MC
55 USA Matt Kuchar 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.32% -0.14% MC
56 ARG Emiliano Grillo 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 0.67% 0.25% MC
57 USA Mackenzie Hughes 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.97% 0.58% T32
58 USA Charles Howell III 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.81% 0.42% MC
59 AUS Matt Jones 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.76% 0.37% T8
60 USA Nate Lashley 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.86% 0.52% T57
61 SCO Martin Laird 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.85% 0.51% MC
62 USA Peter Malnati 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.77% 0.43% MC
63 USA Doug Ghim 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.63% 0.29% MC
64 SWE Alexander Noren 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.63% 0.29% T12
65 USA Michael Thompson 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.51% 0.17% MC
66 USA Harold Varner III 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.51% 0.17% T62
67 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.49% 0.15% 66
68 RSA Dylan Frittelli 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.48% 0.14% MC
69 USA Chez Reavie 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.25% -0.09% MC
70 USA Kyle Stanley 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.52% 0.22% T32
71 USA Tom Hoge 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.46% 0.16% T52
72 AUT Sepp Straka 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.44% 0.14% T43
73 RSA Branden Grace 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.35% 0.05% T20
74 CAN Nick Taylor 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.27% -0.03% T20
75 USA Brandt Snedeker 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% 0.27% -0.04% MC
76 USA Joel Dahmen 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.52% 0.25% MC
77 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.45% 0.17% T57
78 USA Mark Hubbard 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.37% 0.1% MC
79 USA Patrick Rodgers 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.36% 0.09% T12
80 USA Doc Redman 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.32% 0.05% MC
81 RSA Charl Schwartzel 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.31% 0.04% T62
82 USA Vaughn Taylor 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.28% 0.01% MC
83 USA Scott Piercy 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.27% 0% T64
84 USA Jim Furyk 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.22% -0.05% T26
85 USA J.B. Holmes 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.08% -0.19% T57
86 IRL Padraig Harrington 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.56% 0.33% MC
87 USA Austin Cook 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.5% 0.27% MC
88 USA Robby Shelton 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.48% 0.25% MC
89 USA Harry Higgs 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.47% 0.25% MC
90 USA Lucas Glover 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.23% MC
91 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.42% 0.2% MC
92 USA Adam Long 300 (Redzone: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.42% 0.2% MC
93 USA Troy Merritt 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.42% 0.19% MC
94 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.39% 0.17% T32
95 USA Wesley Bryan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.22% -0.01% T43
96 USA Denny McCarthy 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.19% -0.04% MC
97 USA Stewart Cink 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.7% 0.5% MC
98 USA Pat Perez 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.29% 0.09% MC
99 USA Robert Streb 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.86% 0.72% MC
100 USA Brian Gay 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.5% 0.36% T60
101 USA Andrew Landry 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.22% T26
102 USA Tyler Duncan 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.18% T38
103 USA Jim Herman 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.13% MC
104 USA Ryan Armour 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
105 TPE C.T. Pan 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% T20
106 USA Tyler McCumber 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.42% 0.31% T52
107 CHN Zhang Xinjun 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.3% 0.19% MC
108 NZL Danny Lee 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.15% 0.03% T52
109 ENG Angus Flanagan 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0% -0.11% MC
110 USA Jimmy Walker 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.66% 0.57% MC
111 COL Camilo Villegas 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.28% 0.19% MC
112 USA John Augenstein 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.19% 0.1% MC
113 USA Scott Harrington 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.06% T26
114 KOR Taehoon Kim 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.08% 0.01% MC
115 USA Willie Mack III 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.09% 0.04% MC
116 USA Andrew Putnam 0% 0% 0% 0% T32
117 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% 67
118 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T43
119 USA Ty Strafaci 0% 0% 0% 0% WD
120 SWE Tim Widing 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 54.9% 20.5%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 58.8% 23.5%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60% 24.5%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 60% 24.5%
5 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 61.2% 25.4%
6 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 61.6% 25.7%
7 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 92.1% 30.2%
8 VBet 7 @ 1/5 55.7% 30.8%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 63.6% 37.4%
10 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 53.8% 37.4%
11 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.4% 38.2%
12 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 58.4% 41.6%
13 Redzone 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.9%
14 SportPesa 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.9%
15 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.9%
16 Sport Nation 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.9%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 58.6% 44.8%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 62.2% 48.1%
19 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 62.9% 48.7%