Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 27.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 27.7

Total Profit: -72.5

Australian PGA Championship

19/12/2019 - 22/12/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 AUS Adam Scott 5 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 16.67% 13.11% 5.63% -7.48% 1
2 AUS Cameron Smith 6 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 11.24% 3.79% -7.45% T10
3 AUS Jason Scrivener 12 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.05% 1.99% -4.06% WD
4 USA Cameron Champ 16 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.63% 1.59% -3.04% T27
5 SCO Calum Hill 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.03% 2.65% -0.37% T68 13.65
6 AUS Brad Kennedy 28 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.71% 1.27% -1.44% T19
7 NZL Ryan Fox 28 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.71% 0.93% -1.78% T27
8 AUS Minwoo Lee 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.31% 0.61% -1.71% T3
9 AUS Wade Ormsby 45 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.71% 0.93% -0.78% T3
10 AUS Lucas Herbert 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.71% 0.56% -1.15% T64
11 AUS Andrew Dodt 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.54% 1.42% -0.12% 8 6.96
12 USA Stewart Cink 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.29% 0.61% -0.67% T22
13 AUS Rhein Gibson 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.29% 0.37% -0.92% T49
14 NZL Denzel Ieremia 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 2.23% 1.06% T10 5.3
15 AUS Blake Windred 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 1.34% 0.16% T36 5.3
16 JPN Mikumu Horikawa 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 1.07% -0.1% T44 5.3
17 AUS Anthony Quayle 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 0.93% -0.25% T19 5.3
18 AUS Matthew Millar 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 0.63% -0.55% WD
19 RSA Louis de Jager 70 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.11% 0% -1.11% T41
20 AUS Travis Smyth 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.97% 2.05% 1.07% T15 4.39
21 AUS Maverick Antcliff 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.97% 1.7% 0.73% T44 4.39
22 AUS Jamie Arnold 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.97% 1.13% 0.16% T22 4.39
23 AUS Cameron Davis 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.97% 0.6% -0.37% T3 (tied w/5) 4.39 +27.7
24 USA Johannes Veerman 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.97% 0.49% -0.48% T10 4.39
25 AUS Jake McLeod 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.97% 0.44% -0.54% MC
26 CHI Hugo Leon 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% 0.99% 0.12% MC 3.9
27 AUS Matthew Griffin 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 0.52% -0.34% MC 3.9
28 AUS Marcus Fraser 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 0.48% -0.39% MC 3.9
29 AUS Greg Chalmers 100 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.78% 4.02% 3.25% T15 3.52
30 AUS Jarryd Felton 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.78% 0.3% -0.48% MC 3.52
31 AUS Michael Sim 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.78% 0.24% -0.53% T68 3.52
32 AUS James Marchesani 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.79% 1.16% MC 2.82
33 AUS David Micheluzzi 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.78% 1.16% MC 2.82
34 ESP Alejandro Canizares 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.59% -0.03% T33 2.82
35 AUS Brett Rumford 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.45% -0.18% T15 2.82
36 AUS Rod Pampling 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.19% -0.44% T68 2.82
37 AUS Aaron Pike 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 3.62% 3.1% MC
38 AUS Darren Beck 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 1.98% 1.46% MC
39 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.85% 0.33% T3
40 AUS Jake Higginbottom 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.61% 0.09% MC
41 AUS Dylan Perry 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.55% 0.03% T57
42 AUS Deyen Lawson 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.54% 0.02% MC
43 AUS Nick Cullen 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.43% -0.09% T15
44 AUS Ben Eccles 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.41% -0.11% MC
45 ENG Jack Senior 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0% -0.52% T33
46 FRA Romain Wattel 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.49% 0.92% 0.43% T33
47 AUS Peter Lonard 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.45% 1.94% 1.5% MC
48 RSA Bryce Easton 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.45% 0.62% 0.17% T10
49 AUS John Senden 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.45% 0.28% -0.17% MC
50 AUS Terry Pilkadaris 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.45% 0.24% -0.21% T54
51 FRA Clement Sordet 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.45% 0.22% -0.23% MC
52 AUS Justin Warren 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 1.73% 1.34% MC
53 AUS Andrew Martin 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 1.25% 0.86% MC
54 AUS David Bransdon 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.62% 0.23% MC
55 ENG Ross McGowan 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.55% 0.16% T57
56 USA Smylie Kaufman 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.41% 0.02% MC
57 ENG Marcus Armitage 200 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.29% -0.1% MC
58 AUS Sam Brazel 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.22% -0.17% MC
59 USA Harrison Endycott 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.21% -0.18% T44
60 NZL Josh Geary 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.35% 0.7% 0.35% T27
61 AUS Brett Rankin 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 1.78% 1.47% T10
62 AUS Richard Green 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 1.27% 0.95% T61
63 SCO Michael Hendry 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.56% 0.25% 2
64 AUS Adam Bland 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.32% 0.01% MC
65 FIN Sami Valimaki 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.31% 0% T64
66 AUS Zach Murray 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.3% -0.02% T36
67 NZL Nick Voke 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.24% -0.07% T44
68 AUS David McKenzie 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.23% -0.08% MC
69 AUS Brady Watt 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.23% -0.08% T22
70 AUS Daniel Gale 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.23% -0.08% T52
71 CAN Aaron Cockerill 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.6% 0.32% T27
72 AUS Blake Proverbs 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 1.78% 1.52% MC
73 AUS Campbell Rawson 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 1.78% 1.52% MC
74 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.93% 0.66% WD
75 AUS Maxwell McCardle 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.82% 0.56% MC
76 FRA Damien Perrier 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.56% 0.3% T19
77 NZL Daniel Hillier 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.56% 0.3% T36
78 AUS Nick Flanagan 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.23% -0.03% T3
79 AUS Matt Jager 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0% -0.26% MC
80 NZL Mark Brown 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 1.78% 1.56% T41
81 NZL James Anstiss 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 1.01% 0.78% T57
82 AUS Cory Crawford 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.61% 0.39% MC
83 ENG Toby Tree 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.36% 0.14% MC
84 AUS Daniel Nisbet 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.04% T41
85 AUS Steven Jeffress 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.24% 0.02% T22
86 AUS Blake Collyer 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.24% 0.02% MC
87 AUS Ashley Hall 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.23% 0.01% T36
88 AUS Cameron John 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.23% 0.01% MC
89 AUS Peter Fowler 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.22% 0% T54
90 AUS Shae Wools-Cobb 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 1.31% 1.12% MC
91 AUS Peter Wilson 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% MC
92 POR Pedro Figueiredo 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.62% 0.42% T54
93 AUS Jason Norris 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% T52
94 AUS James Nitties 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.23% 0.04% MC
95 AUS Matthew Stieger 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.23% 0.04% T27
96 AUS Taylor MacDonald 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.23% 0.04% 71
97 AUS Christopher Wood 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.82% 0.67% MC
98 ENG Dale Whitnell 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.68% 0.53% T64
99 ENG Daniel Gavins 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.55% 0.4% MC
100 KOR Minkyu Kim 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.35% 0.19% 9
101 ENG David Coupland 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.3% 0.14% MC
102 FRA Gary Stal 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.29% 0.14% MC
103 AUS Adam Burdett 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.24% 0.09% MC
104 ITA Aron Zemmer 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.24% 0.08% MC
105 AUS Scott Strange 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% MC
106 NZL Gareth Paddison 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% MC
107 AUS Nathan Green 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% MC
108 AUS Michael Wright 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% T61
109 AUS Peter Cooke 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% MC
110 NZL Ryan Chisnall 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% T44
111 FIN Janne Kaske 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% T57
112 NZL David Smail 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.22% 0.07% MC
113 SWE Robin Petersson 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.22% 0.07% MC
114 SCO Daniel Young 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.22% 0.06% MC
115 AUS Peter Senior 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0% -0.16% MC
116 GER Hurly Long 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0% -0.16% MC
117 AUS Brody Martin 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.82% 0.69% MC
118 AUS Robert Allenby 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.27% 0.14% MC
119 AUS Aaron Townsend 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.23% 0.1% MC
120 AUS Rick Kulacz 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.23% 0.1% MC
121 AUS Nick O'Hern 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.23% 0.1% MC
122 AUS Kade McBride 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.2% 0.07% MC
123 ENG David Howell 750 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.28% 0.17% MC
124 AUS Simon Hawkes 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.14% T49
125 CHN Chen Zihao 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.24% 0.13% MC
126 AUS Jack Wilson 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
127 AUS Lincoln Tighe 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
128 AUS Damien Jordan 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
129 AUS Dale Brandt-Richards 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
130 AUS Tim Stewart 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
131 NZL Michael Long 750 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0% -0.1% MC
132 AUS Callan O'Reilly 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.24% 0.16% MC
133 SWE Jesper Sandborg 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.24% 0.16% MC
134 NZL Daniel Pearce 1000 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.16% T49
135 NZL Harry Bateman 1000 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.16% T36
136 AUS Peter O'Malley 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.16% MC
137 NZL Fraser Maclachlan 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.16% 72
138 AUS Andrew Campbell 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.16% MC
139 AUS Steven Bowditch 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.14% MC
140 AUS Scott Laycock 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.14% MC
141 AUS Samuel Eaves 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.14% MC
142 AUS Troy Moses 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.23% 0.18% T61
143 AUS Gavin Fairfax 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.22% 0.17% MC
144 AUS Vernon Sexton-Finck 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.22% 0.17% MC
145 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% T64
146 USA Chase Hanna 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 BRA Rafael Becker 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 KOR Jeongu Ham 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 KOR Hyungseok Seo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 AUS Anthony Murdaca 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 AUS Tom Power Horan 0% 0% 0% 0% T22
152 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 AUS Andrew Evans 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 AUS Steve Allan 0% 0% 0% 0% T27
155 AUS Jordan Mullaney 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 AUS Brad Burns 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 27.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betway 7 @ 1/5 49.8% 25.9%
2 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 50.7% 26.7%
3 Coral 7 @ 1/5 51% 27%
4 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 44.4% 29.1%
5 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 44.9% 29.5%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 54.6% 30%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 54.6% 30%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 45.5% 30.1%
9 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 43.5% 31%
10 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 56.4% 31.5%
11 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 31.5%
12 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 45.1% 32.5%
13 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 45.8% 33.2%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 46.5% 33.8%
15 VBet 5 @ 1/4 49.7% 33.9%
16 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 50% 34.1%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 47.3% 34.5%
18 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 42%
19 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 42%
20 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 42%
21 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 42%