Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 33.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 203.3

Total Profit: +103.2

WGC - Mexico Championship

20/02/2020 - 23/02/2020

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 14.29% 10.74% 3.4% -7.34% 5
2 USA Dustin Johnson 7 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 12.5% 9.4% 2.76% -6.64% T48
3 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.83% 4.27% -2.56% T3
4 USA Justin Thomas 10 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.83% 2.33% -4.5% T6
5 USA Webb Simpson 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.96% 2.58% -1.38% T61
6 AUS Adam Scott 20 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.58% 2.75% -0.83% T26
7 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% 2.25% -1.33% T14
8 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 20 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% 2.02% -1.56% T18
9 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% 1.61% -1.96% T6
10 USA Bryson DeChambeau 33 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.21% 1.48% -0.73% 2
11 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 2.34% 0.26% T51 8.91
12 ENG Paul Casey 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 1.73% -0.36% 11
13 USA Collin Morikawa 40 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.83% 1.51% -0.32% T42
14 USA Patrick Reed 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.63% 1.88% 0.25% 1 6.98 +203.3
15 ESP Sergio Garcia 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 1.75% 0.11% T37 6.98
16 USA Matt Kuchar 45 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 1.58% -0.05% T22
17 USA Gary Woodland 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 2.15% 0.68% T12 6.29
18 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 2.06% 0.59% T37 6.29
19 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 1.37% -0.1% T42
20 USA Bubba Watson 55 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.34% 1.43% 0.09% T18
21 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.34% 1.31% -0.03% T12
22 KOR Sungjae Im 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 2.27% 1.04% T29 5.26
23 USA Jordan Spieth 60 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 1.03% -0.2% T58
24 IRL Shane Lowry 66 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 1.5% 0.38% T29 4.79
25 USA Brandt Snedeker 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.15% 0.1% T22
26 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 1.6% 0.67% T6 3.96
27 FRA Victor Perez 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.54% 0.61% T53 3.96
28 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.21% 0.28% T16 3.96
29 KOR Byeong Hun An 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 1.02% 0.09% T29
30 USA Billy Horschel 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.89% 1.06% T9 3.53
31 USA Kevin Kisner 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.75% -0.08% T18
32 NIR Graeme McDowell 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 2.17% 1.42% T69 3.18
33 SCO Robert MacIntyre 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 2.05% 1.3% T42 3.18
34 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.43% 0.69% T29 3.18
35 USA Scottie Scheffler 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 1.28% 0.53% T26 3.18
36 AUS Cameron Smith 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.92% 0.17% T22 3.18
37 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.83% 0.09% T42
38 USA Kevin Na 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.97% 1.29% T9 2.89
39 USA Kurt Kitayama 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 2.57% 1.97% T53 2.55
40 AUT Matthias Schwab 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 2.07% 1.47% T42 2.55
41 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.33% 0.74% 50 2.55
42 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.19% 0.6% T37 2.55
43 USA Charles Howell III 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.18% 0.58% T53 2.55
44 ENG Danny Willett 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.09% 0.49% T42 2.55
45 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.91% 0.32% T29 2.55
46 ENG Lee Westwood 125 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.88% 0.28% T22 2.55
47 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.94% 1.44% T29
48 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.34% 0.84% T3
49 USA Brendon Todd 150 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.34% 0.84% T37
50 MEX Carlos Ortiz 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.29% 0.79% T16
51 ENG Matt Wallace 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.07% 0.57% T58
52 USA Lucas Glover 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.62% 0.12% T61
53 THA Jazz Janewattananond 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.37% -0.13% T53
54 USA Jason Kokrak 150 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.36% -0.13% T51
55 ITA Francesco Molinari 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.29% -0.21% T53
56 AUS Lucas Herbert 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 1.1% 0.68% T58
57 SWE Marcus Kinhult 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.97% 0.6% T69
58 NZL Ryan Fox 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.75% 0.45% T29
59 JPN Shugo Imahira 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 2.48% 2.23% T61
60 RSA Shaun Norris 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 1.34% 1.09% T37
61 FRA Benjamin Hebert 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.73% 0.48% T18
62 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.9% 0.69% 68
63 RSA Zander Lombard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.68% 0.47% T26
64 ESP Jorge Campillo 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% 67
65 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.47% 0.25% 64
66 RSA Justin Harding 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.37% 0.16% T29
67 AUS Zach Murray 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% T48
68 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% 65
69 KOR Taehee Lee 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.12% 0.05% 72
70 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% 66
71 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% 71
72 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T14

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 33.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.8% 21.9%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 38.9% 24.3%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 48.5% 25%
4 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 49.6% 26%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 51.2% 27.3%
6 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 45.4% 30.2%
7 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 42.4% 30.2%
8 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.4%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 55.2% 30.8%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 43.2% 30.9%
11 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 31.4%
12 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 31.6%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 45.2% 32.7%
14 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 49.6% 33.9%
15 Coral 5 @ 1/4 49.6% 33.9%
16 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 46.5% 33.9%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 47.6% 34.9%
18 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.7%
19 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.7%
20 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.7%