Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 53.6

Total Profit: -46.5

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

24/10/2019 - 27/10/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 7 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 12.5% 9.5% 3.65% -5.85% T17
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 8 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.45% 2.18% -6.27% T3
3 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4% 2.19% -1.82% 2
4 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.31% 2.02% -1.29% T10
5 ENG Paul Casey 25 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.92% 3.28% 0.36% T17 12.52
6 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.92% 1.96% -0.96% T22
7 USA Jordan Spieth 28 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.62% 2.51% -0.11% T66
8 AUS Adam Scott 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.62% 2.11% -0.51% T33
9 USA Tony Finau 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.45% 2.38% -0.08% T59
10 USA Gary Woodland 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 2.92% 0.69% 5 9.57 +36.4
11 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 1.8% -0.44% T41
12 USA Patrick Reed 33 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 1.57% -0.67% T17
13 USA Tiger Woods 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 0.7% -1.54% 1
14 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.11% 2.95% 0.83% 75 9.04
15 USA Collin Morikawa 40 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.65% -0.21% T22
16 KOR Sungjae Im 40 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.56% -0.3% T3
17 AUS Jason Day 40 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 0.97% -0.88% T22
18 KOR Byeong Hun An 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.65% 2.05% 0.4% T8 7.08
19 AUS Marc Leishman 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 1.57% -0.08% 69
20 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 50 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 1.9% 0.4% T46 6.38
21 CHI Joaquin Niemann 50 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.83% 0.34% T33 6.38
22 CAN Adam Hadwin 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.82% 0.33% T41 6.38
23 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 50 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 1.39% -0.1% T30
24 IRL Shane Lowry 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.36% 2.97% 1.62% T13 5.82
25 USA Kevin Na 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.36% 2.3% 0.94% T46 5.82
26 USA Ryan Moore 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 0.76% -0.59% T72
27 ESP Sergio Garcia 60 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.25% 1.07% -0.18% T33
28 CAN Corey Conners 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 0.96% -0.29% T6
29 USA Billy Horschel 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 3.08% 1.94% T6 (tied w/2) 4.86 +17.3
30 USA Chez Reavie 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.74% 0.6% 70 4.86
31 USA Andrew Putnam 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.64% 0.5% T59 4.86
32 ARG Emiliano Grillo 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.69% -0.45% T30
33 USA Kevin Kisner 70 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.07% 1% -0.08% T66
34 ENG Ian Poulter 70 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.07% 0.83% -0.24% T13
35 SVK Rory Sabbatini 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 2.18% 1.24% T33 4.02
36 JPN Shugo Imahira 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 2.16% 1.22% T59 4.02
37 USA Lucas Glover 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.18% 0.24% T37
38 USA Charles Howell III 80 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.91% -0.02% T8
39 USA Pat Perez 80 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.72% -0.22% T51
40 USA Jason Kokrak 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.81% -0.03% 71
41 RSA Dylan Frittelli 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.88% 0.12% T22
42 USA Matthew Wolff 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.87% 0.12% T13
43 USA Ryan Palmer 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.77% 0.02% T10
44 NIR Graeme McDowell 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.73% -0.02% WD
45 NZL Danny Lee 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.57% -0.19% T10
46 USA Kevin Streelman 110 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.68% 1.5% 0.81% 74 2.94
47 MEX Abraham Ancer 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.17% 0.49% T41 2.94
48 USA JT Poston 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.02% 0.42% T27 2.59
49 USA Wyndham Clark 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.91% 0.3% T46
50 USA Harold Varner III 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.79% 0.19% T27
51 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.59% -0.01% T37
52 USA Bubba Watson 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.38% -0.22% T51
53 USA Daniel Berger 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.48% -0.06% T17
54 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.23% 0.73% T51
55 THA Jazz Janewattananond 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.81% 0.31% T57
56 USA Scott Piercy 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.73% 0.23% T66
57 USA Keegan Bradley 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.68% 0.18% T13
58 USA Joel Dahmen 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.96% 0.49% 76
59 USA Kevin Tway 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.09% 0.66% T37
60 USA Chan Kim 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.98% 0.54% T41
61 USA Nate Lashley 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.9% 0.47% WD
62 RSA Shaun Norris 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.01% 0.63% T51
63 TPE C.T. Pan 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.71% 0.33% T59
64 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.66% 0.28% T22
65 USA Keith Mitchell 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.5% 0.12% T27
66 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.13% 0.83% T51
67 USA Vaughn Taylor 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.83% 0.53% T41
68 USA Adam Long 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.39% T51
69 USA Troy Merritt 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.64% 0.33% T30
70 JPN Mikumu Horikawa 300 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.59% 0.34% T72
71 USA Seungsu Han 300 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.58% 0.33% T63
72 USA Max Homa 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.63% 0.44% T46
73 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% T37
74 JPN Tomoharu Otsuki 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.64% 0.49% T46
75 JPN Jinichiro Kozuma 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% T57
76 JPN Yosuke Asaji 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% T63
77 KOR Sanghyun Park 0% 0% 0% 0% T63
78 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T17

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 38.8% 24%
3 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 39.3% 24.4%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 50.8% 26.5%
5 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 52.4% 28%
6 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 40.7% 28.4%
7 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 42% 29.5%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 46.1% 30.5%
9 Coral 7 @ 1/5 57.2% 32%
10 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 45.7% 33%
11 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 49% 33.1%
12 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 33.2%
13 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 49.2% 33.3%
14 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.8%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.8%
16 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.8%
17 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.8%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.8%
19 Betway 6 @ 1/5 50.1% 37%
20 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.5% 40%