Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 22.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 31.7

Total Profit: -68.3

WGC - HSBC Champions

31/10/2019 - 03/11/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 14.29% 11.64% 3.34% -8.3% 1
2 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 12 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 6.27% 3.38% -2.89% T11
3 USA Xander Schauffele 14 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.43% 1.75% -3.68% 2
4 ENG Justin Rose 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.79% 3.32% -1.47% T28
5 ENG Paul Casey 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.54% 2.32% -1.22% T38
6 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.13% 1.74% -1.39% T53
7 USA Tony Finau 25 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.13% 1.32% -1.81% T53
8 USA Patrick Reed 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.63% 2.56% -0.06% T8
9 AUS Adam Scott 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 3.74% 1.35% T11 10.88
10 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 2.8% 0.4% T11
11 SWE Henrik Stenson 33 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 2.34% -0.06% T20
12 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 35 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.26% 3.12% 0.86% T49 10.28
13 IRL Shane Lowry 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 3.68% 1.69% T43 9.02
14 USA Jordan Spieth 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 3.28% 1.3% T43 9.02
15 USA Billy Horschel 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 2.47% 0.48% T24 9.02
16 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 2.45% 0.47% T14 9.02
17 KOR Byeong Hun An 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 2.4% 0.41% T14
18 ENG Matt Wallace 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 2.3% 0.31% T60
19 AUS Cameron Smith 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 1.24% -0.74% T60
20 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 45 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.77% 1.68% -0.1% T57
21 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% 2.29% 0.69% 7 7.26
22 USA Charles Howell III 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.45% 1.43% -0.03% T36
23 ESP Sergio Garcia 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.45% 1.01% -0.45% T53
24 CAN Corey Conners 60 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 1.65% 0.32% T20
25 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 1.49% 0.16% 3
26 ENG Ian Poulter 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 0.93% -0.4% WD
27 ENG Danny Willett 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 3.09% 1.88% T73 5.52
28 USA Andrew Putnam 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 2.9% 1.68% T36 5.52
29 CAN Adam Hadwin 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 1.87% 0.65% T46 5.52
30 ITA Francesco Molinari 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 0.85% -0.36% T22
31 USA Keegan Bradley 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.15% 0.94% -0.21% T24
32 RSA Erik van Rooyen 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.15% 0.94% -0.21% T38
33 CHN Hao Tong Li 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.07% 0.68% -0.39% T24
34 SCO Robert MacIntyre 80 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.01% 1.89% 0.88% T17 4.57
35 USA Chez Reavie 90 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 1.67% 0.78% T60 4.07
36 USA Lucas Glover 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 1.35% 0.45% T49 4.07
37 NED Joost Luiten 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 0.93% 0.03% T34
38 USA Phil Mickelson 90 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 0.31% -0.58% T28
39 USA Kevin Kisner 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.18% 0.38% T28
40 AUT Matthias Schwab 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.13% 0.32% T4
41 ITA Andrea Pavan 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.05% 0.24% T49
42 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 0.81% 0% T17
43 USA Bubba Watson 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 0.29% -0.52% T28
44 MEX Abraham Ancer 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.73% 1.21% 0.47% T4 (tied w/3) 3.34 +31.7
45 USA JT Poston 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.73% 0.87% 0.14% T24
46 USA Kurt Kitayama 110 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.73% 0.78% 0.04% T28
47 CHN Zhang Xinjun 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 1.16% 0.51% T38 2.94
48 USA Jason Kokrak 125 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 0.61% -0.04% T8
49 USA Kevin Tway 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 1.26% 0.85% T60
50 ENG Paul Waring 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.87% 0.47% T8
51 FRA Benjamin Hebert 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.8% 0.4% T65
52 FRA Victor Perez 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.41% 0% T4
53 FRA Romain Langasque 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.36% 0.69% 0.33% T46
54 USA Chan Kim 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 1.65% 1.33% T46
55 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 1.13% 0.8% T67
56 THA Jazz Janewattananond 250 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.96% 0.64% T14
57 RSA Justin Harding 250 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.43% 0.1% T53
58 RSA Zander Lombard 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.66% 0.43% 72
59 RSA Richard Sterne 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.53% 0.3% T70
60 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 400 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.43% 0.22% T22
61 CHN Wu Ashun 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.34% 0.18% T73
62 ESP Jorge Campillo 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.29% 0.12% T34
63 JPN Mikumu Horikawa 600 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.7% 0.57% T49
64 AUS Scott Hend 600 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.15% 0.02% T28
65 AUS Jake McLeod 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.13% -0.01% T57
66 RSA Neil Schietekat 600 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.12% -0.01% T57
67 AUS Matthew Millar 600 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.11% -0.02% T67
68 RSA Jbe Kruger 750 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.24% 0.13% T60
69 JPN Yosuke Asaji 1000 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.56% 0.48% T38
70 RSA Bryce Easton 1000 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.54% 0.46% T43
71 CHN Liang Wen-chong 1000 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% T73
72 AUS Daniel Nisbet 1000 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% 77
73 KOR Taehee Lee 1500 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.12% 0.07% T65
74 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T38
75 KOR Yikeun Chang 0% 0% 0% 0% 76
76 CHN Marty Dou Zecheng 0% 0% 0% 0% T67
77 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 0% 0% 0% 0% T17
78 CHN Backjun Bobby An 0% 0% 0% 0% T70

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 22.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
2 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 36% 21.5%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 36.3% 21.8%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 45.7% 22.4%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 46.9% 23.4%
6 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 47.3% 23.7%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 39% 24.2%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 39.8% 24.9%
9 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 41% 26%
10 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 41.2% 26.2%
11 Coral 5 @ 1/4 41.4% 26.4%
12 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 27%
13 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 27%
14 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 27.1%
15 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 39.5% 27.4%
16 Betway 6 @ 1/5 42.9% 30.5%
17 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 49% 33.2%
18 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49% 33.2%
19 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 49% 33.2%
20 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49% 33.2%