Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 30.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 57.5

Total Profit: -42.6

Portugal Masters

24/10/2019 - 27/10/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matt Wallace 9 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 10% 7.46% 6.44% -1.02% T8
2 GER Martin Kaymer 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.93% 2.9% -1.03% T21
3 ENG Eddie Pepperell 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.55% 1.35% -2.2% T6
4 ESP Adria Arnaus 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.24% 2.48% -0.77% T40
5 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 22 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.24% 1.01% -2.23% MC
6 ENG Tom Lewis 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.24% 0.68% -2.56% T8
7 ENG Jordan L Smith 25 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.87% 1.82% -1.05% T31
8 FIN Mikko Korhonen 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.87% 1.69% -1.18% T31
9 RSA George Coetzee 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.87% 1.2% -1.67% T14
10 ENG Sam Horsfield 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.57% 2.11% -0.47% T49
11 ENG Lee Westwood 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.57% 0.84% -1.73% T56
12 ENG Andy Sullivan 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.19% 1.59% -0.6% T8
13 ENG Chris Paisley 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.07% 1.49% -0.58% 5
14 NZL Ryan Fox 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.07% 1% -1.07% T31
15 ENG Ross Fisher 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.82% 1.21% -0.61% T49
16 SWE Joakim Lagergren 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.82% 1.13% -0.69% T14
17 ENG Matthew Southgate 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.82% 0.87% -0.95% T31
18 ENG Callum Shinkwin 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.46% 0.81% -0.66% MC
19 WAL Jamie Donaldson 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.33% 0.96% -0.38% T31
20 IND Shubhankar Sharma 60 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.22% 1.03% -0.2% T21
21 SWE Rikard Karlberg 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.42% 0.31% MC 4.76
22 ITA Nino Bertasio 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.26% 0.15% MC 4.76
23 IRL Padraig Harrington 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.24% 0.13% MC 4.76
24 ITA Guido Migliozzi 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.12% 0.01% T14 4.76
25 RSA Dean Burmester 66 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 0.98% -0.13% T14 4.76
26 FRA Alexander Levy 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 0.78% -0.33% MC
27 CHI Hugo Leon 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 1.56% 0.51% T21 4.49
28 FIN Kalle Samooja 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 1.02% -0.03% T21 4.49
29 SWE Alexander Bjork 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.05% 0.97% -0.08% T49 4.49
30 DEN Jeff Winther 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.13% 0.21% MC 3.94
31 ENG Ashley Chesters 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.12% 0.2% T31 3.94
32 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.91% -0.01% T14 3.94
33 ENG Lee Slattery 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.78% -0.14% MC 3.94
34 KOR Jeunghun Wang 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.74% -0.18% T6 (tied w/2) 3.94 +16.7
35 ENG David Horsey 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.73% -0.19% 48 3.94
36 ESP Nacho Elvira 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.58% -0.34% MC
37 AUS Minwoo Lee 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.48% -0.44% T63
38 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 1.39% 0.65% T40 3.16
39 ITA Renato Paratore 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 1.23% 0.49% T21 3.16
40 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.75% 0.02% MC 3.16
41 SWE Niklas Lemke 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.72% -0.02% T56 3.16
42 ENG Robert Rock 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.68% -0.06% T40 3.16
43 POR Ricardo Gouveia 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.56% -0.18% T27 3.16
44 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.55% -0.19% T2
45 SCO Stephen Gallacher 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.43% -0.31% MC
46 ESP Alvaro Quiros 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.16% 0.57% MC 2.53
47 USA Sihwan Kim 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.05% 0.46% T61 2.53
48 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.95% 0.36% T49 2.53
49 RSA Haydn Porteous 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.85% 0.26% T40 2.53
50 ESP Adrian Otaegui 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.78% 0.19% T49 2.53
51 RSA Justin Walters 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.73% 0.13% T2 (tied w/2) 2.53 +40.8
52 ENG Oliver Fisher 125 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.69% 0.1% T8 2.53
53 WAL Bradley Dredge 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.42% -0.17% T14 2.53
54 ENG Chris Wood 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.35% -0.24% 68
55 IRL Gavin Moynihan 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 1.19% 0.69% WD
56 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 1.07% 0.58% MC
57 ENG Oliver Wilson 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 1.03% 0.54% T56
58 FRA Romain Wattel 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.93% 0.43% T63
59 ENG Jack Singh Brar 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.92% 0.42% T8
60 RSA Thomas Aiken 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.78% 0.29% T31
61 ENG Steven Brown 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.73% 0.24% 1
62 ESP Alejandro Canizares 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.68% 0.18% MC
63 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.66% 0.17% T21
64 USA John Catlin 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.55% 0.06% MC
65 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.36% -0.13% MC
66 RSA Darren Fichardt 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.63% 0.21% T40
67 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 1.03% 0.66% MC
68 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.75% 0.38% MC
69 IRL Paul Dunne 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.75% 0.38% MC
70 FRA Matthieu Pavon 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.74% 0.37% T27
71 GER Bernd Ritthammer 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.68% 0.31% T27
72 ENG Ben Evans 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.62% 0.25% MC
73 FRA Clement Sordet 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.56% 0.19% MC
74 FRA Adrien Saddier 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.37% 0% 4
75 JPN Hideto Tanihara 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.84% 0.54% DQ
76 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.54% 0.24% MC
77 AUS Jake McLeod 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.44% 0.15% T8
78 RSA Louis de Jager 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 0.57% 0.3% T14
79 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.82% 0.57% T49
80 SCO Liam Johnston 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.61% 0.36% T40
81 SWE Robert Karlsson 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.58% 0.33% T69
82 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.57% 0.33% MC
83 SWE Jens Dantorp 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.51% 0.27% MC
84 NOR Espen Kofstad 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.48% 0.23% MC
85 GER Max Schmitt 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.46% 0.21% MC
86 RSA Trevor Immelman 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.38% 0.13% T63
87 AUS Deyen Lawson 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.34% 0.09% MC
88 ENG Max Orrin 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.33% 0.09% MC
89 SCO Paul Lawrie 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.28% 0.04% T56
90 ENG Matthew Nixon 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.23% -0.02% MC
91 POR Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 1.61% 1.4% MC
92 SWE Anton Karlsson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.55% 0.34% T63
93 SCO Marc Warren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.38% 0.17% T56
94 AUS Sam Brazel 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.65% 0.47% MC
95 ENG Daniel Gavins 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.54% 0.36% MC
96 SWE Per Langfors 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.44% 0.26% MC
97 NIR Michael Hoey 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.44% 0.25% MC
98 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.34% 0.15% MC
99 ENG Richard McEvoy 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.27% 0.08% T49
100 ENG Steve Webster 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% MC
101 AUS Nick Cullen 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.24% 0.05% T40
102 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.78% 0.63% MC
103 DEN Thomas Bjorn 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.62% 0.47% MC
104 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.51% 0.37% MC
105 WAL Stuart Manley 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.48% 0.33% MC
106 SCO David Law 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% MC
107 ENG Tom Murray 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.19% T63
108 ITA Matteo Manassero 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
109 SUI Joel Girrbach 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
110 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% T31
111 ESP David Borda Antonana 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.34% 0.21% T31
112 ENG David Howell 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.31% 0.18% MC
113 ENG Scott Gregory 750 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.45% 0.35% MC
114 KOR Hyowon Park 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% MC
115 POR Daniel Da Costa Rodrigues 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.28% 0.19% MC
116 POR Tomas Melo Gouveia 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% MC
117 POR Tomas Silva 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.79% 0.74% T27
118 POR Tiago Cruz 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.36% 0.31% T40
119 NZL Michael Campbell 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.25% 0.2% MC
120 SWE Miguel Gaspar 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.36% 0.32% MC
121 POR Joao Carlota 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.3% 0.26% MC
122 POR Tomas Guimaraes Bessa 2500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.38% 0.35% MC
123 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
124 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T69
125 POR Pedro Cruz Silva 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 30.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 46.6% 22.7%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.2% 24.1%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.5% 25.9%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.8% 28.4%
5 Coral 7 @ 1/5 55.9% 30.6%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 31.5%
7 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 49% 32.9%
8 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 33.1%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 48.2% 35%
10 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 52.5% 36%
11 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 53.9% 37.2%
12 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 37.7%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.7%
14 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.7%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.7%
16 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.8% 38.9%
17 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 55.8% 38.9%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 53.7% 40.1%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.9% 40.3%
20 Betway 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 40.8%
21 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 55.9% 42.2%