Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 24.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 52.1

Total Profit: -48

Pebble Beach

30/01/2025 - 02/02/2025

Up to date as of: 25 days ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 4 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) 20% 14.68% 6.58% -8.1% 9
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.12% 3.72% -2.4% 1
3 USA Collin Morikawa 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.89% 2.73% -2.17% 17
4 USA Justin Thomas 16 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.32% 1.62% -2.7% 48
5 USA Patrick Cantlay 16 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.32% 1.54% -2.78% 33
6 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 22 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.19% 2.83% -0.36% 48
7 SWE Ludvig Aberg 22 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.19% 2.28% -0.91%
8 KOR Sungjae Im 25 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.82% 1.8% -1.03% 33
9 AUS Jason Day 28 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.53% 1.12% -1.41% 13
10 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 40 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.79% 2% 0.21% 22
11 USA Sam Burns 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.79% 1.38% -0.41% 22
12 CAN Taylor Pendrith 40 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.79% 1.22% -0.57% 9
13 USA Keegan Bradley 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.6% 1.74% 0.15% 65
14 CAN Corey Conners 50 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.44% 1.1% -0.34% 65
15 USA Max Greyserman 55 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.31% 1.28% -0.03%
16 USA Maverick McNealy 55 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.31% 1.19% -0.12% 40
17 SCO Robert MacIntyre 60 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.2% 1.87% 0.66% 40 5.45
18 USA Will Zalatoris 60 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.2% 0.74% -0.46% 48
19 USA Wyndham Clark 66 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 2.14% 1.04% 73 4.96
20 NOR Viktor Hovland 66 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% 22 4.96
21 IRL Shane Lowry 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 1.33% 0.24% 2
22 USA Tony Finau 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 1.22% 0.12% 13
23 KOR Woohyun Kim 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 0.07% -1.03%
24 AUT Sepp Straka 70 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 1.76% 0.72% 7 4.68
25 USA Russell Henley 70 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 1.4% 0.37% 5 (tied w/2) 4.68 +17.6
26 USA Akshay Bhatia 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 1.38% 0.35% 22 4.68
27 USA Denny McCarthy 70 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 1.02% -0.02% 58
28 USA Sahith Theegala 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 1.83% 0.93% 53 4.1
29 AUS Adam Scott 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 1.52% 0.62% 22 4.1
30 CAN Nick Taylor 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 1.4% 0.49% 33 4.1
31 USA JT Poston 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 1.26% 0.35% 53 4.1
32 USA Harris English 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 1.25% 0.34% 73 4.1
33 BEL Thomas Detry 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 1.04% 0.13% 48
34 USA Tom Hoge 80 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.91% 0.92% 0.01% 17
35 USA Beau Hossler 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 0.82% -0.08% 69
36 USA J.J Spaun 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 0.82% -0.09% 33
37 ENG Harry Hall 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 0.76% -0.15% 58
38 KOR Byeong Hun An 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 1.31% 0.5% 22 3.65
39 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 1.11% 0.3% 22 3.65
40 USA Cameron Young 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.81% 1.09% 0.28% 72 3.65
41 AUS Cameron Davis 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 1.09% 0.36% 5 (tied w/2) 3.29 +34.5
42 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 100 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 1.07% 0.34% 48 3.29
43 USA Max Homa 100 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.97% 0.24% 53 3.29
44 USA Jordan Spieth 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.65% -0.07% 69
45 ENG Aaron Rai 110 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.66% 1.55% 0.89% 40 3
46 USA Billy Horschel 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.73% 1.15% 9 2.64
47 USA Austin Eckroat 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 1.23% 0.64% 13 2.64
48 COL Nicolas Echavarria 125 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.21% 0.63% 77 2.64
49 GER Stephan Jaeger 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.21% 0.63% 40 2.64
50 USA Davis Thompson 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.12% 0.54% 58 2.64
51 USA Nick Dunlap 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.07% 0.48% 58 2.64
52 USA Eric Cole 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.06% 0.48% 22 2.64
53 AUS Minwoo Lee 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1% 0.42% 17 2.64
54 USA Benjamin Griffin 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.97% 0.39% 69 2.64
55 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.88% 0.3% 12 2.64
56 USA Samuel Stevens 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.81% 0.23% 17
57 USA Mark Hubbard 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.69% 0.11% 73
58 USA Rickie Fowler 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.68% 0.1% 53
59 USA Lee Hodges 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.79% 0.3% 33
60 USA Taylor Moore 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.79% 0.3% 22
61 USA Andrew Novak 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.77% 0.28% 13
62 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.66% 0.17% 33
63 USA Gary Woodland 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.33% -0.16% 22
64 USA Brian Harman 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 1.33% 0.91% 53
65 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 1% 0.58% 40
66 USA Mackenzie Hughes 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.42% 0.98% 0.56% 40
67 ENG Justin Rose 175 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.92% 0.5% 3
68 USA Chris Kirk 175 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.9% 0.48% 62
69 USA Doug Ghim 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.42% 0.68% 0.27% 68
70 USA Patrick Rodgers 175 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.65% 0.24% 22
71 USA Lucas Glover 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 1.04% 0.67% 3
72 USA Justin Lower 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.81% 0.45% 62
73 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 200 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.76% 0.4% 40
74 AUS Kevin Yuan 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.07% -0.29%
75 CAN Adam Hadwin 225 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.83% 0.51% 65
76 IRL Seamus Power 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.51% 0.22% 17
77 USA Jake Knappe 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.62% 0.38% 33
78 FRA Matthieu Pavon 350 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 1.29% 1.08% 73
79 RSA Erik van Rooyen 350 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.79% 0.58% 40
80 USA Brendon Todd 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.59% 0.45% 78
81 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% 7
82 TPE Yu Chun-an(am) 0% 0% 0% 0% 64

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 24.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 AK Bets 5 @ 1/5 27.3% 24.3%
2 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 53% 25%
3 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 53% 25%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 53% 25.2%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.2% 25.5%
6 BoyleSports 10 @ 1/5 91.5% 25.9%
7 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 27.7%
8 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 72.4% 30.3%
9 Coral 8 @ 1/5 72.4% 30.3%
10 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 47% 30.8%
11 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 31.2%
12 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 31.2%
13 Star Sports 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 32.5%
14 PricedUp 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 32.5%
15 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 32.6%
16 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 51.5% 32.9%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52.5% 35.7%
18 LiveScore Bet 6 @ 1/5 52.5% 35.7%
19 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 52.5% 35.7%
20 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 55.6% 38.4%
21 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 55.6% 38.4%
22 Betway 6 @ 1/5 55.7% 38.6%
23 VBet 4 @ 1/4 46% 43.5%