Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 20.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 45.6

Total Profit: -54.5

World Tour Championship

14/11/2024 - 17/11/2024

Up to date as of: 9 days ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 3.5 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 22.22% 16.86% 10.23% -6.63% 1
2 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 5.5 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 15.38% 11.67% 3.82% -7.85% 6
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 7 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 9.48% 5.98% -3.5% 16
4 IRL Shane Lowry 14 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.06% 3.76% -1.3% 3
5 CHI Joaquin Niemann 14 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.06% 1.08% -3.98% 7
6 ENG Matt Wallace 16 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.46% 2.57% -1.89% 11
7 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.3% 5.03% 1.74% 7 14.57
8 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 22 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.3% 2.39% -0.91% 24
9 AUS Minwoo Lee 25 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.92% 2.98% 0.06% 24
10 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 25 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.92% 2.63% -0.29% 2
11 USA Billy Horschel 28 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.62% 4.89% 2.28% 47 11.56
12 RSA Thriston Lawrence 28 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.62% 3.1% 0.48% 30 11.56
13 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 30 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.45% 1.85% -0.6% 40
14 AUS Adam Scott 33 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.23% 4.18% 1.95% 3 (tied w/3) 9.86 +45.6
15 ENG Jordan L Smith 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.89% 0.04% 19
16 NIR Tom McKibbin 40 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 1.65% -0.2% 11
17 ENG Laurie Canter 60 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.14% -0.1% 14
18 ENG Justin Rose 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 2.89% 1.76% 34 5.01
19 ENG Paul Waring 66 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.68% 0.54% 16 5.01
20 POL Adrian Meronk 66 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.32% 0.18% 30
21 FRA Antoine Rozner 70 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.07% 1.25% 0.18% 3
22 SCO Ewen Ferguson 75 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1% 1.49% 0.49% 19 4.41
23 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.44% 0.5% 19 4.14
24 ENG Matthew Jordan 80 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.39% 0.45% 34 4.14
25 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 80 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.22% 0.29% 24 4.14
26 USA Johannes Veerman 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.89% -0.05% 16
27 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 1.53% 0.7% 42 3.69
28 FRA Romain Langasque 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 1.93% 1.18% 19 3.32
29 ITA Matteo Manassero 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.88% 1.13% 30 3.32
30 ESP Jorge Campillo 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.7% 0.95% 19 3.32
31 SWE Jesper Svensson 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 1.69% 0.94% 7 3.32
32 ITA Francesco Laporta 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.73% -0.02% 45
33 FRA Julien Guerrier 110 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.52% 0.84% 34 3.02
34 GER Yannik Paul 110 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.22% 0.53% 34 3.02
35 ENG Andy Sullivan 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.93% 0.33% 24 2.66
36 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.44% 0.94% 28
37 ENG Dan Bradbury 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 46
38 ESP Adrian Otaegui 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.09% 0.59% 13
39 SCO Connor Syme 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.08% 0.65% 49
40 ENG Sam Bairstow 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.01% 0.58% 14
41 FRA Frederic LaCroix 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 1.23% 0.86% 34
42 FRA Ugo Coussaud 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.94% 0.56% 30
43 ENG Daniel A Brown 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.32% 1.02% 43
44 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.14% 0.83% 48
45 CAN Aaron Cockerill 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.77% 0.51% 49
46 FRA David Ravetto 600 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 1.13% 1.01% 44
47 ESP Nacho Elvira 600 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 1.11% 0.98% 34
48 NED Darius Van Driel 600 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.69% 0.56% 28
49 ENG Joseph Dean 0% 0% 0% 0% 40
50 JPN Toru Nakajima 0% 0% 0% 0% 7

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 20.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 28.6% 11.8%
2 AK Bets 5 @ 1/5 21.4% 17.1%
3 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 37.7% 21.2%
4 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 38.1% 21.7%
5 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 38.1% 21.7%
6 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 42.1% 25.2%
7 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 42.1% 25.2%
8 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 42.3% 25.3%
9 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 26%
10 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 26.2%
11 LiveScore Bet 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 26.2%
12 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 26.2%
13 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 69.7% 27.4%
14 Coral 8 @ 1/5 69.7% 27.4%
15 VBet 6 @ 1/5 45.8% 28.4%
16 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 28.4%
17 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 45.9% 28.4%
18 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 72.8% 29.6%
19 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 30.4%
20 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 30.4%
21 PricedUp 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 30.6%
22 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 48.9% 31%
23 Betway 6 @ 1/5 49.2% 31.4%
24 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 49.7% 31.7%