Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 25.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 44.8

Total Profit: -55.4

Abu Dhabi Championship

07/11/2024 - 10/11/2024

Up to date as of: 18 days ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.92% 8.93% -1.99% 3
2 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 6.5 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 13.33% 10.19% 3% -7.19% 2
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 7.5 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 11.76% 8.99% 5.23% -3.77% 6
4 IRL Shane Lowry 14 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.1% 3.29% -1.81% 13
5 CHI Joaquin Niemann 14 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.1% 0.93% -4.16% 23
6 SCO Robert MacIntyre 20 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.64% 4.43% 0.79% 19
7 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.32% 2.31% -1.02% 32
8 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.94% 1.91% -1.03% 3
9 AUS Minwoo Lee 26 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 3.7% 2.83% 2.65% -0.18% 23
10 AUS Adam Scott 28 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.64% 3.7% 1.07% 46 11.35
11 ENG Matt Wallace 28 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.64% 2.09% -0.55% 3
12 RSA Thriston Lawrence 33 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.25% 2.62% 0.37% 6 (tied w/4) 9.68 +27.6
13 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.86% 2.48% 0.61% 13 8.03
14 ENG Jordan L Smith 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.86% 1.62% -0.24% 13
15 POL Adrian Meronk 45 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.66% 1.19% -0.47% 37
16 ITA Matteo Manassero 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.5% 1.65% 0.15% 59 6.46
17 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 50 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.5% 1.54% 0.04% 10
18 NIR Tom McKibbin 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.37% 1.38% 0.02% 10
19 ENG Justin Rose 60 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.25% 2.6% 1.35% 68 5.4
20 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 2.31% 1.17% 13 4.92
21 ITA Guido Migliozzi 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 1.27% 0.13% 52
22 ESP Jorge Campillo 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.52% 0.57% 32 4.07
23 FRA Julien Guerrier 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.34% 0.4% 52 4.07
24 ENG Laurie Canter 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.98% 0.04% 23
25 USA Johannes Veerman 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.77% -0.18% 27
26 FRA Romain Langasque 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.7% 0.86% 32 3.62
27 SWE Jesper Svensson 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.49% 0.65% 44 3.62
28 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 90 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1.35% 0.51% 27 3.62
29 ENG Matthew Jordan 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.15% 0.31% 10 3.62
30 FRA Antoine Rozner 90 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1% 0.16% 6 (tied w/4) 3.62 +17.2
31 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 0.66% -0.18% 59
32 SCO Ewen Ferguson 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.3% 0.54% 23 3.26
33 GER Yannik Paul 100 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.08% 0.33% 56 3.26
34 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.05% 0.29% 19 3.26
35 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.66% -0.1% 19
36 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 110 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.69% 1.27% 0.59% 37 2.97
37 SCO Connor Syme 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.97% 0.36% 65 2.62
38 SCO Calum Hill 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.77% 0.17% 67 2.62
39 ENG Paul Waring 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.74% 0.14% 1
40 MAS Gavin Green 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.63% 0.03% 46
41 ITA Francesco Laporta 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.59% -0.02% 13
42 SCO Grant Forrest 130 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.76% 0.58% 0.93% 0.34% 59 2.52
43 IND Shubhankar Sharma 130 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.76% 0.58% 0.88% 0.3% 32 2.52
44 NED Joost Luiten 130 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.76% 0.58% 0.87% 0.29% 37 2.52
45 DEN Jeff Winther 130 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.76% 0.58% 0.83% 0.25% 37 2.52
46 ENG Daniel A Brown 150 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 1.17% 0.66%
47 FRA Frederic LaCroix 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.08% 0.57% 46
48 ENG Dan Bradbury 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 1.05% 0.54% 46
49 ESP Adrian Otaegui 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.97% 0.47% 52
50 ENG Sam Bairstow 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.89% 0.38% 59
51 ENG Richard Mansell 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.85% 0.34% 32
52 CAN Aaron Cockerill 150 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.68% 0.17% 46
53 ENG Andy Sullivan 160 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.47% 0.8% 0.33% 27
54 AUS David Micheluzzi 160 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.47% 0.68% 0.2% 37
55 RSA Casey Jarvis 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.47% 0.57% 0.1% 56
56 FRA Adrien Saddier 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.68% 0.25% 19
57 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.99% 0.61% 52
58 USA Sean Crocker 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.77% 0.46% 27
59 FRA Ugo Coussaud 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.73% 0.42% 6
60 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.63% 0.33% 37
61 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.56% 0.26% 37
62 ENG Matthew Baldwin 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.63% 0.38% 46
63 GER Marcel Siem 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.97% 0.75% 27
64 NED Darius Van Driel 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.61% 0.42% 69
65 FRA David Ravetto 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.99% 0.84% 65
66 ESP Nacho Elvira 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.98% 0.83% 56
67 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.55% 0.4% 44
68 RSA Dylan Frittelli 600 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.48% 0.35% 59
69 ENG Joseph Dean 0% 0% 0% 0% 59
70 JPN Toru Nakajima 0% 0% 0% 0% 13

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 25.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 49.7% 22.3%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 53.4% 25.2%
3 AK Bets 5 @ 1/5 29.3% 25.9%
4 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 41.8% 26%
5 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 41.8% 26%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 26.8%
7 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 69.8% 28.6%
8 Coral 8 @ 1/5 69.8% 28.6%
9 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 45.6% 29.4%
10 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 58.5% 29.5%
11 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 58.5% 29.5%
12 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 48.7% 30.3%
13 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 31.3%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 32.3%
15 LiveScore Bet 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 32.3%
16 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 32.3%
17 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 75.8% 33.1%
18 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 50% 33.3%
19 PricedUp 6 @ 1/5 50.1% 33.4%
20 Betway 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 38.8%
21 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 57.6% 40.1%
22 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 57.6% 40.1%
23 VBet 1 @ 1/1 48.3% 48.3%