Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 25.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

BMW Championship

22/08/2024 - 25/08/2024

Up to date as of: 3 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 3 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 25% 18.73% 9.85% -8.88% 33
2 USA Xander Schauffele 6.5 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 13.33% 9.99% 8.61% -1.38% 5
3 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 16 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.41% 3.48% -0.93%
4 NIR Rory McIlroy 16 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.41% 3.21% -1.2% 11
5 USA Collin Morikawa 16 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.41% 2.83% -1.57% 28
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.57% 2.03% -1.54% 13
7 NOR Viktor Hovland 20 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.57% 1.86% -1.71% 26
8 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 22 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.26% 2.16% -1.1% 5
9 SWE Ludvig Aberg 25 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.88% 2.63% -0.26% 2
10 USA Wyndham Clark 30 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.42% 3.12% 0.71% 13 10.81
11 USA Sam Burns 33 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.2% 1.38% -0.82% 2
12 USA Tony Finau 35 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.08% 1.76% -0.32% 13
13 USA Russell Henley 40 (Ladbrokes: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 2.68% 0.86% 22 8.17
14 USA Billy Horschel 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.83% 2.42% 0.6% 22 8.17
15 ENG Aaron Rai 45 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.63% 2.54% 0.92% 43 7.29
16 KOR Sungjae Im 45 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.63% 2.21% 0.58% 11 7.29
17 CAN Corey Conners 45 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.63% 1.84% 0.22% 22
18 USA Justin Thomas 45 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.63% 1.42% -0.21% 39
19 USA Sahith Theegala 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.47% 2.72% 1.25% 48 6.57
20 USA Cameron Young 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.47% 1.63% 0.16% 43
21 USA Akshay Bhatia 55 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.34% 1.88% 0.55% 45 5.99
22 AUS Adam Scott 55 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.34% 1.56% 0.22% 2
23 IRL Shane Lowry 60 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 1.52% 0.29% 13
24 AUS Jason Day 60 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 1.39% 0.16% 33
25 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 60 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 1.26% 0.03% 33
26 USA Davis Thompson 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 1.86% 0.74% 41 5
27 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 70 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.06% 1.46% 0.4% 28 4.72
28 USA Brian Harman 70 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.06% 1.38% 0.33% 25
29 SCO Robert MacIntyre 75 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.99% 2% 1.02% 4.41
30 USA Nick Dunlap 75 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.99% 1.26% 0.28% 31
31 AUT Sepp Straka 80 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 1.56% 0.64% 13 4.14
32 USA Denny McCarthy 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 1.46% 0.54% 26 4.14
33 USA Will Zalatoris 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 0.79% -0.13% 13
34 CAN Taylor Pendrith 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 1.49% 0.67% 13 3.69
35 SWE Alexander Noren 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 1.3% 0.48% 9 3.69
36 KOR Byeong Hun An 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 1.28% 0.46% 13 3.69
37 KOR Siwoo Kim 90 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.82% 1.08% 0.26% 5
38 USA Max Greyserman 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 1.56% 0.82% 28 3.32
39 USA Austin Eckroat 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 1.39% 0.65% 46 3.32
40 BEL Thomas Detry 110 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.67% 1.62% 0.94% 31 3.02
41 USA Keegan Bradley 110 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.67% 1.01% 0.33% 1
42 USA Eric Cole 110 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.67% 0.94% 0.27% 46
43 USA Tom Hoge 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 1.47% 0.88% 13 2.66
44 USA Max Homa 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.92% 0.33% 33
45 AUS Cameron Davis 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.76% 0.17% 5
46 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.91% 0.41% 41
47 USA JT Poston 160 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.91% 0.45% 33
48 USA Chris Kirk 180 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.55% 0.41% 1.39% 0.98% 9
49 GER Stephan Jaeger 180 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.55% 0.41% 0.94% 0.52% 39
50 FRA Matthieu Pavon 275 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 1.22% 0.95% 33

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 25.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Star Sports 5 @ 1/4 29.5% 12.6%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 40.6% 22.2%
3 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 41% 22.6%
4 AK Bets 5 @ 1/5 27.5% 23%
5 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 43.5% 24.8%
6 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 43.5% 24.9%
7 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 43.5% 24.9%
8 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 27.8%
9 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 27.9%
10 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 28.3%
11 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 28.3%
12 BetUK 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 28.3%
13 BetMGM UK 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 28.3%
14 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 46.8% 29.2%
15 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 46.8% 29.2%
16 Ladbrokes 6 @ 1/5 50.2% 32.2%
17 Coral 6 @ 1/5 50.2% 32.2%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 51.3% 33.2%
19 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 79% 34.3%
20 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 54.2% 35.8%
21 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 54.2% 35.8%
22 QuinnBet 5 @ 1/5 45.4% 40.2%
23 BetGoodwin 5 @ 1/5 45.4% 40.2%
24 VBet 1 @ 1/1 40.4% 40.4%