Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 26.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 87.9

Total Profit: -12.2

Olympic Men's Golf Competition

01/08/2024 - 04/08/2024

Up to date as of: 3 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 4.5 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 18.18% 13.9% 14.27% 0.38% 1
2 USA Xander Schauffele 6 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 14.29% 10.92% 10.08% -0.84% 9
3 NIR Rory McIlroy 8 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 11.11% 8.49% 6% -2.49% 5
4 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.95% 1.12% -5.82% 5
5 USA Collin Morikawa 12 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.88% 3.65% -2.23% 24
6 SWE Ludvig Aberg 14 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.1% 3.45% -1.64% 18
7 IRL Shane Lowry 22 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.32% 3.69% 0.37% 26 14.44
8 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 22 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.32% 2.53% -0.79% 2
9 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.94% 1.65% -1.29% 30
10 KOR Woohyun Kim 25 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.94% 0.14% -2.8%
11 SWE Alexander Noren 28 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.64% 2.27% -0.37% 45
12 CHI Joaquin Niemann 28 (BoyleSports: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.64% 1.27% -1.36% 9
13 CAN Corey Conners 33 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.25% 2.91% 0.66% 9 9.77
14 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 35 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.12% 2.69% 0.57% 3 9.23 +45
15 AUT Sepp Straka 45 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 2.29% 0.63% 35 7.22
16 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 45 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.89% 0.23% 7.22
17 AUS Minwoo Lee 50 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.5% 2.53% 1.03% 22 6.52
18 AUS Jason Day 50 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.93% 0.43% 9 6.52
19 USA Wyndham Clark 66 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 2.22% 1.08% 14 4.96
20 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 1.8% 0.66% 9 4.96
21 KOR Byeong Hun An 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 1.8% 0.66% 24 4.96
22 FRA Matthieu Pavon 70 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.08% 1.26% 0.18% 58
23 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 75 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.01% 1.73% 0.72% 16 4.37
24 NZL Ryan Fox 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1.66% 0.82% 35 3.65
25 FRA Victor Perez 90 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.65% 0.81% 4 3.65 +42.9
26 ITA Guido Migliozzi 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1.36% 0.52% 22 3.65
27 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1.1% 0.26% 7 3.65
28 MEX Abraham Ancer 90 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.71% -0.13% 35
29 POL Adrian Meronk 90 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 0.42% -0.42% 49
30 MEX Carlos Ortiz 90 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 0.14% -0.7% 26
31 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.92% 0.17% 14
32 NED Joost Luiten 100 (BoyleSports: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.43% -0.33%
33 ITA Matteo Manassero 125 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.77% 1.16% 18 2.64
34 RSA Erik van Rooyen 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.7% 1.09% 17 2.64
35 GER Stephan Jaeger 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 2% 1.49% 26
36 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.88% 0.38% 43
37 ESP David Puig 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.45% -0.06% 40
38 CAN Nick Taylor 160 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 1.06% 0.58% 30
39 TPE C.T. Pan 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.87% 0.43% 18
40 FIN Sami Valimaki 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.01% 0.63% 45
41 IND Shubhankar Sharma 200 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.93% 0.55% 40
42 CHI Cristobal Del Solar 250 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.14% -0.16%
43 AUS Kevin Yuan 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.14% -0.16%
44 NED Darius Van Driel 300 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.46% 0.2%
45 MAS Gavin Green 300 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.41% 0.16% 33
46 ARG Alejandro Tosti 350 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.74% 0.52% 18
47 NZL Daniel Hillier 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.71% 0.49% 55
48 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.41% 0.21% 33
49 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 400 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.38% 0.19% 54
50 COL Nicolas Echavarria 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.83% 0.67% 35
51 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.14% -0.01% 43
52 BEL Adrien Dumont de Chassart 600 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.71% 0.58% 40
53 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 750 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.66% 0.56% 35
54 PUR Rafael Campos 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.45% 0.35% 30
55 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.41% 0.31% 56
56 THA Phachara Khongwatmai 750 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.04%
57 SUI Joel Girrbach 1000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.55% 0.47% 49
58 COL Camilo Villegas 1000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.29% 0.21% 57
59 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 1500 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.22% 0.17% 45
60 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% 45
61 CHN Marty Dou Zecheng 0% 0% 0% 0% 53
62 JPN Toru Nakajima 0% 0% 0% 0% 49
63 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% 8
64 TPE Yu Chun-an(am) 0% 0% 0% 0% 52
65 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% 26

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 26.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 37.9% 20.8%
2 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 38.9% 23.3%
3 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 38.9% 23.3%
4 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 39.5% 23.8%
5 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 42% 24.5%
6 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 24.8%
7 LiveScore Bet 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 24.8%
8 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 24.8%
9 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 24.8%
10 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 42.6% 25%
11 AK Bets 5 @ 1/5 29.9% 26.2%
12 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 42.8% 26.9%
13 Betway 6 @ 1/5 43.5% 27.4%
14 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 43.6% 27.5%
15 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 43.6% 27.5%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 44.8% 28.7%
17 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 44.8% 28.7%
18 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 45% 28.8%
19 BoyleSports 6 @ 1/5 45.3% 28.9%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 28.9%
21 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 60.7% 31.5%
22 Coral 7 @ 1/5 60.7% 31.5%
23 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 48.3% 31.7%
24 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 48.3% 31.7%