Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 6.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 81.3

Total Profit: -18.9

Wells Fargo Championship

09/05/2024 - 12/05/2024

Up to date as of: 6 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 8.03 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.5/1) 11.07% 10.11% 1.37% -8.73% 1
2 USA Xander Schauffele 11.3 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.1/1) 8.13% 7.42% 2.11% -5.31% 2
3 USA Wyndham Clark 17.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.3/1) 5.38% 4.91% 3.5% -1.41% 47
4 USA Patrick Cantlay 24 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.3/1) 4% 3.65% 1.45% -2.2% 29
5 USA Justin Thomas 25 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 3.85% 3.51% 2.07% -1.44% 21
6 USA Max Homa 25 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.51% 1.96% -1.55% 8
7 USA Collin Morikawa 28 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.9/1) 3.45% 3.15% 1.69% -1.46% 16
8 USA Cameron Young 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.68% 2.05% -0.64% 34
9 USA Sahith Theegala 34 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.8/1) 2.86% 2.61% 2.28% -0.33% 52
10 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 34 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.8/1) 2.86% 2.61% 2.27% -0.34% 13
11 USA Will Zalatoris 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.23% 2.07% -0.15% 60
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 40 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.6/1) 2.44% 2.23% 0.92% -1.31% 24
13 USA Tony Finau 42 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.9/1) 2.33% 2.12% 1.19% -0.94% 52
14 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 44 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.1/1) 2.22% 2.03% 2.78% 0.75% 9.14
15 KOR Byeong Hun An 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.86% 2.29% 0.42% 3 8.39 +40.5
16 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.86% 1.57% -0.3% 52
17 KOR Siwoo Kim 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.86% 1.35% -0.51% 16
18 USA Jordan Spieth 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.55% 1.75% 0.2% 29 6.97
19 USA Akshay Bhatia 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.55% 1.68% 0.13% 42
20 AUS Adam Scott 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.55% 1.37% -0.18% 29
21 USA Brian Harman 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.43% 1.96% 0.53% 47 6.43
22 SWE Alexander Noren 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.43% 1.71% 0.28% 24 6.43
23 USA Sam Burns 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.43% 1.02% -0.4% 13
24 AUT Sepp Straka 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.36% 1.64% 0.27% 8 6.14
25 IRL Shane Lowry 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.36% 1.27% -0.1% 47
26 USA Keegan Bradley 66 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 1.49% 1.36% 1.07% -0.3% 21
27 AUS Jason Day 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.32% 1.32% 0% 4
28 USA Tom Hoge 70 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 1.41% 1.29% 1.46% 0.17% 38
29 USA Kurt Kitayama 70 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 1.41% 1.29% 0.79% -0.5% 34
30 GER Stephan Jaeger 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.23% 2.2% 0.97% 21 5.56
31 USA Russell Henley 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.23% 2.07% 0.84% 10 5.56
32 USA Harris English 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.23% 1.51% 0.28% 34 5.56
33 KOR Sungjae Im 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.17% 1.51% 0.34% 4 (tied w/2) 5.27 +40.8
34 USA Adam Schenk 80 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.13% 1.41% 0.28% 64 5.08
35 USA Lucas Glover 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 1.23% 1.13% 0.8% -0.33% 16
36 USA Chris Kirk 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.1% 1.39% 0.29% 43 4.96
37 USA Rickie Fowler 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.1% 1.13% 0.03% 43
38 CAN Corey Conners 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.1% 0.77% -0.33% 13
39 USA Austin Eckroat 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.9% 1.52% 0.62% 63 4.07
40 USA Taylor Moore 100 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.9% 1.07% 0.17% 38
41 USA Denny McCarthy 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.85% 1.19% 0.34% 6 3.81
42 USA JT Poston 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.77% 1.91% 1.13% 60 3.49
43 USA Billy Horschel 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.77% 1.56% 0.78% 52 3.49
44 AUS Cameron Davis 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.72% 1.27% 0.54% 38 3.27
45 USA Patrick Rodgers 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.72% 1.06% 0.34% 29 3.27
46 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.72% 2.26% 1.54% 16 3.24
47 KOR Woohyun Kim 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.72% 0.11% -0.61%
48 USA Jake Knappe 140 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.65% 1.64% 0.99% 58
49 FRA Matthieu Pavon 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.55% 2.78% 2.24% 67
50 USA Eric Cole 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.55% 1.85% 1.3% 68
51 USA Mackenzie Hughes 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.52% 1.16% 0.65% 6
52 CAN Taylor Pendrith 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.44% 1.71% 1.27% 10
53 CAN Nick Taylor 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.42% 1.84% 1.41% 43
54 CAN Adam Hadwin 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.42% 1.5% 1.07% 52
55 USA Andrew Putnam 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.37% 0.83% 0.46% 29
56 USA Brendon Todd 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.34% 0.82% 0.48% 60
57 ENG Justin Rose 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.33% 0.64% 0.3% 52
58 IRL Seamus Power 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.31% 0.81% 0.5% 16
59 ARG Emiliano Grillo 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.31% 0.72% 0.41% 64
60 USA Webb Simpson 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.26% 0.45% 0.19% 24
61 USA Lee Hodges 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.25% 0.68% 0.42% 24
62 USA Nick Dunlap 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.24% 1.45% 1.21% 24
63 USA Kevin Tway 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.23% 1.08% 0.85% 43
64 USA Gary Woodland 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.23% 0.38% 0.15% 38
65 USA Ben Kohles 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.18% 1.13% 0.95% 58
66 USA Grayson Murray 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 1.73% 1.55% 10
67 CAN Adam Svensson 538 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.17% 0.78% 0.61% 47
68 USA Peter Malnati 597 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.2/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.83% 0.68% 66
69 USA Matt Kuchar 616 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.9/1) 0.16% 0.15% 0.54% 0.39% 34
70 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% 47

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 6.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 7% 2.9%
2 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/6 67.9% 22%
3 Coral 10 @ 1/6 68.2% 22.2%
4 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 27%
5 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 27%
6 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 43.4% 27%
7 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 69.3% 27.2%
8 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 47.6% 28.9%
9 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 46.1% 29.3%
10 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 46.1% 29.3%
11 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 49.3% 32.2%
12 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 32.3%
13 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 52% 32.7%
14 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 49.8% 32.7%
15 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 49.8% 32.7%
16 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 52.7% 33.3%
17 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 33.5%
18 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51.6% 34.3%
19 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 51.7% 34.4%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 54.4% 34.8%
21 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 55.2% 37.5%
22 Betway 6 @ 1/5 55.6% 37.8%
23 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 59.6% 41.4%
24 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 59.6% 41.4%