Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 9.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 128.9

Total Profit: +28.8

RBC Heritage

18/04/2024 - 21/04/2024

Up to date as of: 7 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 4.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.7/1) 17.24% 15.41% 5.07% -10.34% 1
2 USA Xander Schauffele 14.7 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.8/1) 6.37% 5.69% 2.46% -3.24% 18
3 SWE Ludvig Aberg 16.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4/1) 5.81% 5.2% 3.87% -1.33% 10
4 USA Patrick Cantlay 18.1 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.4/1) 5.24% 4.68% 0.94% -3.74% 3
5 USA Collin Morikawa 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 4.76% 4.26% 1.75% -2.51% 9
6 NIR Rory McIlroy 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 3.89% 2.08% -1.8% 33
7 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 24 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.3/1) 4% 3.57% 3.11% -0.46% 49
8 KOR Siwoo Kim 30 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/6) 3.23% 2.88% 1.32% -1.56% 18
9 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 30 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.2/1) 3.23% 2.88% 1.32% -1.56% 28
10 USA Max Homa 34 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.8/1) 2.86% 2.55% 2.43% -0.13% 55
11 USA Will Zalatoris 36 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.1/1) 2.7% 2.42% 1.6% -0.82% 44
12 USA Russell Henley 40 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.18% 2.41% 0.23% 12 9.9
13 USA Cameron Young 40 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.6/1) 2.44% 2.18% 2.01% -0.17% 62
14 USA Wyndham Clark 44 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.1/1) 2.22% 1.99% 2.67% 0.68% 3 (tied w/2) 9.02 +41.2
15 IRL Shane Lowry 45 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.94% 1.89% -0.05% 64
16 USA Jordan Spieth 46 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.4/1) 2.13% 1.9% 1.41% -0.49% 39
17 USA Sahith Theegala 53 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.1/1) 1.85% 1.66% 1.87% 0.21% 2 7.52 +45.4
18 KOR Woohyun Kim 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.4% 0.11% -1.29%
19 AUT Sepp Straka 70 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.26% 1.41% 0.15% 5 (tied w/4) 5.72 +32.2
20 USA Denny McCarthy 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.21% 1.56% 0.35% 28 5.49
21 USA Brian Harman 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.21% 1.32% 0.11% 12 5.49
22 CAN Corey Conners 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.21% 1.21% 0% 44
23 USA Tony Finau 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.21% 1.03% -0.18% 12
24 USA Sam Burns 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.21% 0.89% -0.32% 44
25 USA Justin Thomas 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.15% 2.29% 1.15% 5 (tied w/4) 5.21 +10.1
26 USA Akshay Bhatia 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.15% 1.96% 0.82% 18 5.21
27 USA Chris Kirk 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.15% 1.73% 0.58% 10 5.21
28 USA Lucas Glover 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.1% 0.92% -0.19% 33
29 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.08% 1.55% 0.47% 28 4.89
30 USA Harris English 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.08% 1.32% 0.24% 28 4.89
31 USA JT Poston 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.08% 1.07% 0% 5
32 AUS Cameron Davis 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.08% 0.89% -0.19% 49
33 AUS Jason Day 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 1.02% 1.35% 0.34% 18 4.61
34 USA Brendon Todd 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.98% 1.21% 0.23% 58 4.46
35 KOR Byeong Hun An 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.91% 1.39% 0.47% 67 4.14
36 USA Taylor Moore 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.91% 1.08% 0.17% 58 4.14
37 KOR Sungjae Im 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.91% 0.85% -0.06% 12
38 CAN Adam Hadwin 100 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.88% 1.45% 0.57% 42 4.02
39 FRA Matthieu Pavon 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.83% 1.64% 0.81% 49 3.76
40 ARG Emiliano Grillo 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.71% 0.75% 0.04% 64 3.22
41 USA Adam Schenk 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.7% 1.37% 0.67% 49 3.2
42 USA Eric Cole 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.65% 1.56% 0.91% 33
43 USA Keegan Bradley 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.65% 1.46% 0.81% 55
44 USA Tom Hoge 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.65% 1.3% 0.65% 18
45 USA Kurt Kitayama 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.65% 1.18% 0.52% 33
46 USA Austin Eckroat 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.59% 1.47% 0.88% 17
47 USA Andrew Putnam 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.54% 1.57% 1.04% 18
48 CAN Nick Taylor 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.48% 1.95% 1.47% 49
49 RSA Erik van Rooyen 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.46% 1.37% 0.92% 33
50 GER Stephan Jaeger 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.43% 1.12% 0.68% 18
51 BEL Thomas Detry 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.43% 1.07% 0.64% 28
52 USA Mackenzie Hughes 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.41% 1.38% 0.97% 39
53 CAN Adam Svensson 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.36% 0.67% 0.3% 44
54 USA Rickie Fowler 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.33% 0.58% 0.26% 18
55 USA Webb Simpson 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.29% 0.62% 0.33% 42
56 ENG Justin Rose 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.23% 0.72% 0.48% 44
57 USA Lee Hodges 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.23% 0.54% 0.31% 58
58 USA Patrick Rodgers 391 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.7/1) 0.26% 0.23% 0.77% 0.54% 5
59 USA Nick Dunlap 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.22% 1.49% 1.27% 69
60 USA Jake Knappe 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.19% 1.42% 1.23% 62
61 USA Brice Garnett 500 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 1.17% 0.99% 18
62 ARG Alejandro Tosti 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 0.77% 0.59% 33
63 IRL Seamus Power 509 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.2/1) 0.2% 0.18% 1.17% 0.99% 12
64 USA Peter Malnati 518 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66/1) 0.19% 0.17% 1.48% 1.31% 49
65 USA Chandler Phillips 646 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.14% 1.07% 0.93% 55
66 USA Gary Woodland 646 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.14% 0.37% 0.24% 64
67 USA Grayson Murray 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.12% 1.99% 1.87% 39
68 USA Erik Barnes 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1% 0.91% 58
69 USA Kevin Kisner 1000 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.21% 0.12% 68
70 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% 18

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 9.4% 3.2%
2 VBet 6 @ 1/5 42% 26%
3 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 56.3% 27.5%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46% 27.7%
5 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 57.5% 28.4%
6 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 28.7%
7 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 28.7%
8 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 70.4% 28.7%
9 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 31.5%
10 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/6 81.9% 32.9%
11 Coral 10 @ 1/6 81.9% 32.9%
12 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 51.7% 34.7%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 37.3%
14 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 37.3%
15 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 37.3%
16 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 37.9%
17 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 55.9% 38.5%
18 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 55.9% 38.5%
19 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 58.7% 38.9%
20 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 38.9%
21 Betway 6 @ 1/5 57.8% 40%
22 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 60.3% 42.3%
23 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 60.3% 42.3%
24 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 62.9% 44.7%