Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 12.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

19/01/2023 - 22/01/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 11 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.9% 2.46% -4.44% T7
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 11 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.9% 1.86% -5.04% T38
3 IRL Shane Lowry 14 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.52% 2.49% -3.03% T28
4 SWE Alexander Noren 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.36% 3.4% -0.96% T5
5 SCO Robert MacIntyre 25 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.19% 1.55% -1.63% T20
6 BEL Thomas Pieters 25 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.19% 1.38% -1.81% MC
7 AUS Minwoo Lee 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.67% 1.44% -1.23% T2
8 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 30 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.67% 1.3% -1.37%
9 IRL Seamus Power 33 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.44% 3.22% 0.79% T20 10.63
10 ENG Jordan L Smith 33 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.44% 1.75% -0.69% MC
11 NZL Ryan Fox 33 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.44% 1.16% -1.27% T65
12 FRA Victor Perez 35 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.3% 1.1% -1.2% 1
13 POL Adrian Meronk 35 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.3% 1.06% -1.24% T10
14 USA Patrick Reed 39 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.5/1) 2.5% 2.07% 1.67% -0.4% MC
15 ITA Francesco Molinari 40 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.02% 0.94% -1.08% T5
16 ESP Adrian Otaegui 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.62% 2.39% 0.77% T28 7.09
17 ENG Lee Westwood 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.62% 2.3% 0.68% T56 7.09
18 AUT Sepp Straka 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.62% 1.46% -0.17% MC 7.09
19 FRA Antoine Rozner 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.48% 1.59% 0.11% T50 6.46
20 ENG Callum Shinkwin 80 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.02% 2.09% 1.07% MC 4.47
21 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 0.59% -0.44% MC
22 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.96% 1.53% 0.57% T50 4.21
23 RSA Thriston Lawrence 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.96% 1.3% 0.34% 4.21
24 ENG Sam Horsfield 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.96% 1.09% 0.13% MC 4.21
25 FRA Julien Brun 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.91% 0.76% -0.15% MC 3.98
26 SCO Richie Ramsay 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.86% 1.03% 0.17% T38 3.77
27 SCO Scott Jamieson 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.86% 0.63% -0.23% T46
28 ENG Ian Poulter 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.86% 0.56% -0.3% T60
29 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.86% 0.51% -0.36% T10
30 SWE Henrik Stenson 95 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.04% 0.86% 0.17% -0.69% T20
31 ENG Eddie Pepperell 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.78% 1.18% 0.4% MC 3.41
32 ENG Matt Wallace 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.78% 0.83% 0.04% T20 3.41
33 SCO Ewen Ferguson 110 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.75% 1.15% 0.4% 64 3.26
34 GER Yannik Paul 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.71% 0.97% 0.25% MC 3.12
35 ITA Guido Migliozzi 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.71% 0.92% 0.21% T20 3.12
36 ENG Richard Mansell 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.71% 0.81% 0.09% T50 3.12
37 SWE Alexander Bjork 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.71% 0.79% 0.08% T28 3.12
38 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.67% 0.72% 0.06% T20 2.92
39 RSA Justin Harding 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.67% 0.6% -0.07% MC 2.92
40 FIN Sami Valimaki 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.68% 0.02% T10 2.87
41 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.66% 0.53% -0.13% MC 2.87
42 GER Marcel Schneider 130 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.76% 0.63% 0.77% 0.14% MC 2.76
43 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 0.78% 0.16% MC
44 SCO Connor Syme 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 1.48% 0.91% T28
45 MAS Gavin Green 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 1.21% 0.64% MC
46 RSA George Coetzee 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 0.79% 0.22% T38
47 FIN Mikko Korhonen 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 0.57% 0% MC
48 CHN Wu Ashun 150 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.69% 0.14% T20
49 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.68% 0.13% T38
50 ENG Richard Bland 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.51% -0.04% T10
51 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.5% -0.04% T20
52 IRL Padraig Harrington 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.54% 1.62% 1.09% 4
53 RSA Oliver Bekker 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.54% 0.71% 0.17% MC
54 AUS Jason Scrivener 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.54% 0.62% 0.08% T7
55 NED Joost Luiten 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 1.08% 0.58% T28
56 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.42% -0.08% T10
57 THA Jazz Janewattananond 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.48% 0.62% 0.14% T50
58 ENG Andy Sullivan 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.46% 1.42% 0.96% T17
59 ITA Edoardo Molinari 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.46% 0.5% 0.04% T17
60 CHN Hao Tong Li 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.67% 0.26% MC
61 ENG Matthew Southgate 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.37% 0.62% 0.24% MC
62 ENG Matthew Jordan 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.37% 0.39% 0.02% T34
63 DEN Jeff Winther 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.78% 0.42% T17
64 ESP Jorge Campillo 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.78% 0.42% MC
65 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.62% 0.26% T34
66 IND Shubhankar Sharma 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.56% 0.2% T7
67 USA John Catlin 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.35% -0.01% T60
68 ENG Marcus Armitage 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.53% 0.2% T67
69 AUT Lukas Nemecz 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.48% 0.15% MC
70 ENG Ross Fisher 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.42% 0.09% MC
71 WAL Jamie Donaldson 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.27% -0.06% T38
72 ENG Luke Donald 250 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.25% -0.08% T38
73 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.61% 0.29% MC
74 ENG Paul Waring 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.57% 0.25% MC
75 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.53% 0.21% MC
76 GER Hurly Long 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.42% 0.1% MC
77 USA Johannes Veerman 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.3% -0.01% MC
78 ENG Dale Whitnell 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.95% 0.65% T10
79 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.94% 0.64% T34
80 SWE Joakim Lagergren 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.48% 0.18% MC
81 SWE Marcus Kinhult 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.48% 0.18% T46
82 RSA Louis de Jager 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.29% 0.7% 0.42% MC
83 KOR Jeunghun Wang 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.28% 0.24% -0.03% MC
84 SCO David Law 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.84% 0.56% MC
85 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.69% 0.42% T67
86 FRA Julien Guerrier 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.42% 0.15% MC
87 ENG Nathan Kimsey 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.48% 0.22% T34
88 FRA Matthieu Pavon 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.48% 0.22% T28
89 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.25% 0.43% 0.18% T2
90 ENG Dan Bradbury 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 1% 0.76% T60
91 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.52% 0.29% MC
92 RSA JC Ritchie 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.23% 0.2% -0.03% MC
93 RSA Ockie Strydom 373 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.9/1) 0.27% 0.22% 1.28% 1.06% 63
94 RSA Zander Lombard 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.63% 0.41% MC
95 FIN Kalle Samooja 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.3% 0.08% MC
96 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.77% 0.56% MC
97 FRA Victor Dubuisson 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.36% 0.16% MC
98 NED Wil Besseling 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.44% 0.25% MC
99 USA Chase Hanna 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.41% 0.23% T56
100 SCO Grant Forrest 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.39% 0.22% T10
101 ENG James Morrison 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.23% 0.06% T46
102 NED Daan Huizing 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.51% 0.34% MC
103 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.54% 0.38% MC
104 FRA Alexander Levy 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.17% 0.01% T50
105 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 517 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.53% 0.37% MC
106 SCO Calum Hill 565 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.3/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.16% 0.01% MC
107 ESP Santiago Tarrio 585 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.1/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03%
108 NOR Espen Kofstad 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.44% 0.3% MC
109 CAN Aaron Cockerill 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.37% 0.23% MC
110 USA Sean Crocker 662 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.9/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.55% 0.42% T38
111 NZL Daniel Hillier 662 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.9/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.41% 0.28% T46
112 SWE Jens Dantorp 671 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.7/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.31% 0.19% MC
113 ENG Daniel Gavins 729 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.7/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.54% 0.43% MC
114 NED Darius Van Driel 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.39% 0.28% T56
115 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.51% 0.42% MC
116 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.5% 0.41% T38
117 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.46% 0.37% MC
118 SCO Marc Warren 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.4% 0.31% T65
119 DEN Thomas Bjorn 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% T56
120 CHN Liu Yanwei 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.21% MC
121 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.28% 0.19% MC
122 SWE Mikael Lindberg 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.15% MC
123 EGY Issa Abou El Ela 5000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.17% 0.16%
124 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T50
125 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
126 NIR Tom McKibbin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
127 MAR Mehdi El Fakouri 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
128 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 12.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 13.5% 13.5%
2 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 37.9% 21.4%
3 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 38.3% 21.8%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.4%
5 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 42.4% 27.6%
6 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 27.9%
7 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 27.9%
8 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 69.9% 29.2%
9 Coral 8 @ 1/5 69.9% 29.2%
10 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 72.2% 30.9%
11 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 49.9% 34.4%
12 Betway 7 @ 1/5 63.6% 34.6%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.5% 35%
14 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 50.5% 35%
15 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 65.6% 36.2%
16 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 65.6% 36.2%
17 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.3%
18 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 53.2% 37.3%
19 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 57.3% 38.5%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 58.4% 39.4%
21 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 43%