Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -2.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 62.0

Total Profit: -38.1

BMW Championship

17/08/2023 - 20/08/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7.4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.3/1) 11.9% 10.96% 4.05% -6.91% 4
2 USA Scottie Scheffler 8.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.5/1) 10.87% 10% 4.99% -5.01% T2
3 ESP Jon Rahm 10.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3/1) 8.62% 7.93% 3.25% -4.68% T31
4 USA Patrick Cantlay 12 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.3/1) 7.69% 7.08% 2.67% -4.41% T15
5 NOR Viktor Hovland 18.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.4/1) 5.21% 4.79% 3.09% -1.7% 1
6 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 4% 1.98% -2.02% T8
7 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 27 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.8/1) 3.57% 3.29% 3.03% -0.26% T25
8 USA Max Homa 29 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.1/1) 3.33% 3.07% 1.7% -1.36% T5
9 USA Collin Morikawa 29 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.1/1) 3.33% 3.07% 1.27% -1.8% T25
10 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 33 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.71% 2.07% -0.64% T34
11 USA Jordan Spieth 37 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.2/1) 2.63% 2.42% 2.69% 0.27% T34
12 USA Rickie Fowler 40 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.24% 3.54% 1.3% T25 9.96
13 USA Cameron Young 40 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.24% 1.8% -0.44% T15
14 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.19% 1.68% -0.52%
15 USA Lucas Glover 46 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.4/1) 2.13% 1.96% 1.5% -0.46% T22
16 USA Wyndham Clark 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.8% 3.53% 1.73% T15 8
17 USA Russell Henley 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.74% 2.25% 0.51% T8 7.7
18 KOR Woohyun Kim 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.74% 0.09% -1.65%
19 USA Tony Finau 53 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.1/1) 1.85% 1.7% 1.53% -0.18% T37
20 KOR Sungjae Im 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.59% 2.31% 0.72% 7 7.04
21 KOR Byeong Hun An 60 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.51% 1.95% 0.44% 43 6.69
22 AUS Jason Day 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.46% 1.99% 0.53% T45 6.48
23 CAN Corey Conners 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.44% 2.12% 0.69% T10 6.38
24 USA Keegan Bradley 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.37% 2.08% 0.7% T29 6.09
25 USA Brian Harman 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.35% 3.13% 1.77% T5 (tied w/2) 6 +21.2
26 AUS Cameron Davis 70 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.3% 2.52% 1.23% 40 5.75
27 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.21% 1.91% 0.7% T2 (tied w/2) 5.37 +40.8
28 USA Sam Burns 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.21% 1.89% 0.68% T15 5.37
29 ENG Justin Rose 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.21% 1.46% 0.25% T22
30 KOR Siwoo Kim 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.14% 1.51% 0.37% T31 5.04
31 AUT Sepp Straka 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.87% 1.63% 0.76% T37 3.85
32 USA JT Poston 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.79% 2.43% 1.64% T22 3.52
33 ARG Emiliano Grillo 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.79% 1.6% 0.81% T31 3.52
34 USA Sahith Theegala 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.74% 1.77% 1.03% T15 3.3
35 USA Taylor Moore 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.64% 1.3% 0.66%
36 USA Harris English 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.59% 1.85% 1.27% T10
37 USA Adam Schenk 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.56% 2.75% 2.19% T34
38 USA Denny McCarthy 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.56% 1.7% 1.14% T10
39 USA Brendon Todd 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.56% 1.35% 0.79% T41
40 USA Eric Cole 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.51% 1.5% 1% T25
41 USA Lee Hodges 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.48% 1.06% 0.58% T45
42 CAN Adam Hadwin 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.46% 1.28% 0.83% 44
43 USA Chris Kirk 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.4% 1.55% 1.15% T29
44 CAN Adam Svensson 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.4% 1.52% 1.12% T15
45 USA Andrew Putnam 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.35% 1.76% 1.4% T10
46 USA Patrick Rodgers 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 1.67% 1.33% T37
47 USA Kurt Kitayama 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 1.44% 1.1% T41
48 CAN Nick Taylor 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.31% 1.31% 1% 47
49 USA Tom Hoge 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.31% 0.51% 0.2% 21
50 IRL Seamus Power 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.27% 0.45% 0.18% 48
51 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T10

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -2.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 35.4% 18.7%
2 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 35.4% 18.7%
3 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 37.4% 20.6%
4 VBet 6 @ 1/5 37.4% 20.6%
5 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 39.9% 22.7%
6 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 23.4%
7 BetUK 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 23.4%
8 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 24.6%
9 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 24.6%
10 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 43.8% 24.7%
11 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 43.9% 24.8%
12 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 42.7% 25.2%
13 Betway 6 @ 1/5 43% 25.5%
14 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 43% 25.5%
15 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 43% 25.5%
16 Ladbrokes 6 @ 1/5 43.5% 25.9%
17 Coral 6 @ 1/5 43.5% 25.9%
18 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 26.4%
19 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 45% 27.3%
20 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 46.7% 27.3%
21 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 71% 27.4%