Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 262.8

Total Profit: +162.7

Wells Fargo Championship

04/05/2023 - 07/05/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 12.5% 10.21% 1.45% -8.76% T47
2 USA Tony Finau 14 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 6.67% 5.45% 2.24% -3.21% T23
3 USA Patrick Cantlay 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.45% 1.64% -3.81% T21
4 USA Jordan Spieth 16 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 5.88% 4.81% 1.95% -2.85% MC
5 USA Xander Schauffele 16.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.1/1) 5.62% 4.59% 1.95% -2.64% 2
6 USA Cameron Young 18 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 5.26% 4.3% 2.01% -2.29% T59
7 NOR Viktor Hovland 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.89% 2.43% -1.46% T43
8 USA Collin Morikawa 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.55% 1.94% -1.61% MC
9 AUS Jason Day 22 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 4.35% 3.55% 1.89% -1.66% MC
10 USA Max Homa 22 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 4.35% 3.55% 1.81% -1.74% T8
11 USA Justin Thomas 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.55% 1.63% -1.93% T14
12 KOR Sungjae Im 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.14% 1.97% -1.17% T8 (tied w/6) 13.16 +6.6
13 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 31 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.4/1) 3.13% 2.55% 1.36% -1.2% T35
14 USA Sam Burns 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.4% 1.35% -1.06% MC 10.07
15 USA Rickie Fowler 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.27% 1.68% -0.59% T14 9.51
16 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 1.88% -0.11% T3 (tied w/2) 8.35 +37.6
17 USA Sahith Theegala 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.41% 2.24% 0.83% T56 5.9
18 KOR Tom Kim 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.3% 1.24% -0.06% T23 5.44
19 USA Wyndham Clark 66 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 1.49% 1.22% 1.02% -0.2% 1 5.11 +201.8
20 CAN Corey Conners 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.07% 1.46% 0.39% T8 4.51
21 IRL Shane Lowry 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.07% 1.23% 0.15% MC 4.51
22 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.01% 1.73% 0.72% T5 (tied w/2) 4.23 +16.8
23 USA Keith Mitchell 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.01% 1.3% 0.29% T59 4.23
24 USA Gary Woodland 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.64% -0.37% T14 4.23
25 USA Keegan Bradley 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.9% 1.48% 0.58% T35 3.76
26 USA Patrick Rodgers 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.56% -0.25% MC 3.39
27 USA Taylor Moore 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 1.45% 0.8% T27 2.76
28 USA Brian Harman 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.89% 0.23% MC 2.76
29 USA Davis Riley 125 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 0.95% 0.3% MC 2.72
30 AUS Cameron Davis 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.91% 0.26% T59 2.72
31 ARG Emiliano Grillo 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.55% -0.1% T23 2.72
32 USA Kurt Kitayama 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.96% 0.42% MC
33 USA J.J Spaun 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.87% 0.33% T27
34 USA Chris Kirk 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 1.4% 0.87% T56
35 KOR Siwoo Kim 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 1.36% 0.83% T43
36 USA Matt Kuchar 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 1.44% 1% T23
37 USA Taylor Montgomery 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 1.33% 0.88% MC
38 USA Hayden Buckley 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.43% 0.82% 0.4% T43
39 IRL Seamus Power 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 1.33% 0.92% T18
40 USA JT Poston 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.79% 0.39% MC
41 USA William Gordon 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.38% -0.03% MC
42 USA Luke List 200 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.27% -0.14% MC
43 USA Beau Hossler 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.4% 0.43% 0.02% T47
44 AUS Adam Scott 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.39% 1.16% 0.78% T5
45 USA Denny McCarthy 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 1.49% 1.16% T8
46 GER Stephan Jaeger 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.44% 0.12% T27
47 KOR Byeong Hun An 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.44% 0.11% MC
48 USA Adam Schenk 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.45% 0.12% MC
49 USA Joseph Bramlett 250 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.37% 0.04% T40
50 USA Cameron Champ 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.24% -0.08% MC
51 USA Webb Simpson 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.24% -0.09% T64
52 CAN Adam Hadwin 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.31% 1.5% 1.18% MC
53 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.31% 0.54% 0.22% T8
54 USA Benjamin Griffin 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 1.13% 0.85% MC
55 USA Joel Dahmen 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.32% 0.04% MC
56 ENG Aaron Rai 300 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.39% 0.12% MC
57 CAN Adam Svensson 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.24% 1.56% 1.32% T27
58 ENG Matt Wallace 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.46% 0.22% MC
59 USA Akshay Bhatia 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% T43
60 USA Harris English 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.23% 0.95% 0.72% T3
61 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.35% 0.13% MC
62 SWE Alexander Noren 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.21% 1.2% 0.99% MC
63 USA Samuel Stevens 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.72% 0.51% T47
64 USA Trey Mullinax 400 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.25% 0.2% 0.45% 0.25% T47
65 USA Mackenzie Hughes 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.64% 0.43% MC
66 USA Nick Hardy 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.38% 0.17% 68
67 CAN Taylor Pendrith 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.39% 0.19% MC
68 USA Ben Martin 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.48% 0.3% MC
69 USA Andrew Putnam 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.85% 0.68%
70 USA Alex Smalley 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.51% 0.34% T18
71 USA Brendon Todd 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.44% 0.27% T8
72 USA Sam Ryder 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.62% 0.46% MC
73 ARG Alejandro Tosti 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.87% 0.71% T47
74 USA Brent Grant 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.2% 0.04% MC
75 SCO Russell Knox 500 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% MC
76 AUT Sepp Straka 517 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.77% 0.61% MC
77 RSA Erik van Rooyen 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% MC
78 ENG Danny Willett 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.53% 0.38% MC
79 RSA Garrick Higgo 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
80 USA Lee Hodges 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.44% 0.29% MC
81 ITA Francesco Molinari 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% T40
82 USA Robby Shelton 565 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.3/1) 0.18% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% MC
83 USA Nate Lashley 585 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.1/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.48% 0.34% T27
84 USA Eric Cole 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.83% 0.69% MC
85 USA Patton Kizzire 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.3% 0.17% MC
86 USA Kramer Hickok 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 0.2% 0.07% T40
87 USA Pierceson Coody 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.37% 0.24% MC
88 USA Davis Thompson 662 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.9/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.95% 0.82% MC
89 USA Dylan Wu 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.45% 0.33% T21
90 USA Michael Thompson 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.26% 0.14% MC
91 USA Tyler Duncan 710 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.1/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.42% 0.3% MC
92 ENG Harry Hall 710 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.1/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.36% 0.25% MC
93 USA Michael Kim 739 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 85.5/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.23% 0.12% 7
94 USA Mark Hubbard 748 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.3/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.35% 0.24% T27
95 USA Carson Young 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.43% 0.32% MC
96 ENG Callum Tarren 750 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.34% 0.23% T64
97 RSA Dylan Frittelli 750 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.28% 0.17% MC
98 AUT Matthias Schwab 750 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.26% 0.15% MC
99 USA Kevin Tway 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.21% 0.1% MC
100 USA Doc Redman 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.2% 0.1% MC
101 USA Ryan Moore 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.19% 0.08% MC
102 USA Chad Ramey 750 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.19% 0.08% T35
103 USA Justin Lower 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.18% 0.07% MC
104 SWE Henrik Norlander 750 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.18% 0.07% T47
105 USA Tyson Alexander 750 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.13% 0.11% 0.17% 0.06% MC
106 SCO Martin Laird 750 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.15% 0.04% MC
107 USA Lanto Griffin 758 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.28% 0.17% MC
108 USA Kevin Streelman 758 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.25% 0.14% T18
109 USA Lucas Glover 787 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.6/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% MC
110 USA Ryan Palmer 796 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.3/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.09% T35
111 RSA MJ Daffue 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.34% 0.23% T47
112 ENG Benjamin Taylor 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.91% 0.81% MC
113 USA Jimmy Walker 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.41% 0.31% T14
114 USA James Hahn 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% MC
115 USA Chez Reavie 854 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.45% 0.36% MC
116 USA Austin Smotherman 854 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.25% 0.16% MC
117 USA Matthew NeSmith 863 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.8/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.16% 0.07% T35
118 USA David Lipsky 873 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 96.6/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.33% 0.24% MC
119 USA Doug Ghim 883 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 97.4/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.21% 0.12% T27
120 USA Zach Johnson 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.44% 0.35% MC
121 USA Peter Malnati 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.43% 0.35%
122 USA Greyson Sigg 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
123 USA Scott Piercy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.3% 0.22% MC
124 USA Ryan Gerard 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.3% 0.22% MC
125 SWE David Lingmerth 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% T47
126 USA Adam Long 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
127 USA Chesson Hadley 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% MC
128 USA Austin Eckroat 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.18% 0.1% T64
129 USA Stewart Cink 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.16% 0.08% 67
130 USA Troy Merritt 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.09% 0% MC
131 TPE C.T. Pan 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.08% 0% MC
132 COL Nicolas Echavarria 1000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.4% 0.32% MC
133 USA Paul Haley-II 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.13% MC
134 SVK Rory Sabbatini 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.17% 0.09% MC
135 USA Zac Blair 1000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.17% 0.09% T47
136 USA Harrison Endycott 1000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.16% 0.07% T59
137 USA Ryan Armour 1000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% T56
138 USA Trevor Cone 1000 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.1% 0.08% 0.13% 0.05% MC
139 USA Robert Streb 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.08% 0% MC
140 USA Austin Greaser 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.08% -0.01% MC
141 USA Ryan Brehm 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.25% 0.21%
142 USA Jim Herman 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.21% 0.17% MC
143 USA Richy Werenski 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.21% 0.17% MC
144 USA Andrew Landry 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.18% 0.14% MC
145 USA Jason Dufner 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.18% 0.13% MC
146 USA Kelly Kraft 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.13% 0.09% MC
147 USA J.B. Holmes 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.1% 0.06%
148 USA Nick Watney 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.1% 0.06% MC
149 USA Max McGreevy 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.17% 0.14% MC
150 Marcus Byrd 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.08% 0.06% MC
151 USA Morgan DeNeen 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.08% 0.06% MC
152 USA Quinn Riley 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.08% 0.06% MC
153 USA Austin Cook 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T59
155 USA Willie Mack III 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Ryan Cole 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 Danny Guise 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 Trace Crowe(Oct1996) 0% 0% 0% 0% T27

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11.9% 10.8%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 53.1% 17%
3 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 58.6% 21.2%
4 Coral 12 @ 1/6 86.1% 23.1%
5 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 86.1% 23.6%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 65% 26%
7 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 65% 26%
8 VBet 7 @ 1/5 53.1% 26.5%
9 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.5% 28.5%
10 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 69.4% 29.4%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 47.3% 30.2%
12 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.4% 31.1%
13 Betway 7 @ 1/5 58.9% 31.4%
14 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 49.4% 32%
15 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 59.9% 32.2%
16 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 32.4%
17 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 32.4%
18 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 64.7% 36.1%
19 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 61% 42.3%
20 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 62.1% 45.9%
21 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 62.1% 45.9%
22 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 62.4% 46.2%
23 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 65.4% 48.9%