Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 8.7

Total Profit: -91.4

WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play

22/03/2023 - 25/03/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 9 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.7/1) 10% 8.91% 5.11% -3.8% 4
2 ESP Jon Rahm 13.4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.5/1) 6.94% 6.19% 3.94% -2.25% T31
3 NIR Rory McIlroy 15.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4/1) 5.95% 5.3% 3.18% -2.13% 3
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.87% 2.59% -1.29% T59
5 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.87% 2.15% -1.73% T5
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 22 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.87% 2.07% -1.8% T9
7 USA Tony Finau 25 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.43% 5.02% 1.59% T17 15.37
8 USA Max Homa 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.43% 2.57% -0.86% T9
9 USA Collin Morikawa 27 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.8/1) 3.57% 3.18% 2.45% -0.74% T28
10 USA Cameron Young 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.07% 1.59% -1.48% 2
11 USA Jordan Spieth 29 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.1/1) 3.33% 2.97% 1.22% -1.75% T31
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 31 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.4/1) 3.13% 2.78% 2.23% -0.55% T31
13 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.62% 1.43% -1.19% T31
14 AUS Jason Day 35 (Bet Victor: 4 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.47% 2.65% 0.17% T5 11.1
15 USA Will Zalatoris 39 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.5/1) 2.5% 2.23% 0.94% -1.29% T59
16 KOR Sungjae Im 40 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 2.44% 2.17% 1.89% -0.28% T17
17 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 50 (LiveScore Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 1.96% 1.75% 1.24% -0.51% T52
18 KOR Tom Kim 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.54% 1.66% 0.12% T31
19 USA Sam Burns 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.54% 1.26% -0.28% 1
20 USA Sahith Theegala 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.33% 2.84% 1.51% T31 5.97
21 KOR Siwoo Kim 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.33% 2% 0.67% T17 5.97
22 USA Tom Hoge 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.33% 1.67% 0.34% T59 5.97
23 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.31% 0.72% -0.59% T31
24 USA Rickie Fowler 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.22% 2.21% 0.99% T17 5.48
25 IRL Shane Lowry 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.22% 0.74% -0.48% T31
26 USA Keith Mitchell 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.17% 1.9% 0.72% T52 5.26
27 IRL Seamus Power 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.1% 2.33% 1.23% T31 4.94
28 USA Taylor Montgomery 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.1% 1.64% 0.54% T17 4.94
29 CAN Adam Hadwin 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.1% 1.61% 0.51% T31 4.94
30 USA Brian Harman 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.1% 1.57% 0.47% T17 4.94
31 CAN Corey Conners 80 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 1.23% 1.1% 1.03% -0.07% T17
32 USA Russell Henley 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.1% 0.94% -0.16% T17
33 USA Keegan Bradley 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.98% 2.49% 1.51% T28 4.39
34 AUS Minwoo Lee 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.93% 2.33% 1.4% T31 4.17
35 USA Denny McCarthy 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.88% 0.98% 0.1% T52
36 USA Matt Kuchar 100 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.88% 0.95% 0.07% T9
37 NZL Ryan Fox 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.77% 1.84% 1.07% T17 3.45
38 USA Chris Kirk 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.77% 1.73% 0.96% T52 3.45
39 USA Kurt Kitayama 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.77% 1.49% 0.72% T5 (tied w/4) 3.45 +8.7
40 AUS Adam Scott 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.77% 0.52% -0.25% T31
41 USA Billy Horschel 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.72% 0.65% -0.07% T9
42 CAN Nick Taylor 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.71% 1.07% 0.36% T31 3.17
43 FRA Victor Perez 125 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.71% 0.96% 0.25% T31 3.17
44 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.71% 0.8% 0.09%
45 USA Kevin Kisner 125 (Ladbrokes: 4 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.71% 0.23% -0.48% T31
46 USA Richard H. Lee 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.71% 0.1% -0.6%
47 SWE Alexander Noren 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.62% 3.16% 2.54% T52
48 USA Benjamin Griffin 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.59% 1.83% 1.24% T31
49 USA Andrew Putnam 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.59% 1% 0.41% T9
50 USA J.J Spaun 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.59% 0.73% 0.14% T9
51 USA JT Poston 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.59% 0.61% 0.02% T9
52 USA Maverick McNealy 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.58% 1.02% 0.44% T52
53 USA Davis Riley 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.58% 0.75% 0.17% T28
54 USA Harris English 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.54% 0.9% 0.36% T31
55 AUS Cameron Davis 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.51% 0.67% 0.16% T17
56 CAN Adam Svensson 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.49% 1.02% 0.54% T52
57 USA Aaron Wise 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.49% 0.76% 0.27% T31
58 POL Adrian Meronk 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.44% 0.75% 0.31% T17
59 AUS Lucas Herbert 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.39% 0.84% 0.45% T9
60 USA Mackenzie Hughes 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.34% 1.14% 0.8% T5
61 AUT Sepp Straka 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.34% 0.93% 0.59% T59
62 USA Scott Stallings 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.34% 0.65% 0.31% T31
63 USA Davis Thompson 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.77% 0.51% T31
64 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T31

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 9.3% 3.7%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 47.8% 10.7%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 47.8% 10.7%
4 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 59.3% 19.4%
5 Bet Victor 4 @ 1/4 29.2% 26.3%
6 Parimatch 4 @ 1/4 29.2% 26.3%
7 VBet 4 @ 1/4 30.1% 27.3%
8 Skybet 4 @ 1/4 30.7% 27.8%
9 LiveScore Bet 1 @ 1/1 28.2% 28.2%
10 10Bet 1 @ 1/1 28.3% 28.3%
11 Bet365 4 @ 1/4 31.6% 28.8%
12 Betfred 4 @ 1/4 33.3% 30.4%
13 William Hill 4 @ 1/4 34.1% 31.2%
14 Ladbrokes 4 @ 1/4 34.2% 31.3%
15 Coral 4 @ 1/4 34.2% 31.3%
16 QuinnBet 4 @ 1/4 35.1% 32.2%
17 Sporting Index 4 @ 1/4 35.2% 32.2%
18 Unibet 4 @ 1/4 35.7% 32.7%
19 BetUK 4 @ 1/4 35.7% 32.7%
20 888Sport 4 @ 1/4 38% 35%
21 Betway 4 @ 1/4 38.3% 35.3%
22 Spreadex 4 @ 1/4 47.2% 44%