Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 105.2

Total Profit: +5

THE PLAYERS Championship

09/03/2023 - 12/03/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7.5 (Coral: 12 @ 1/5) 11.76% 8.68% 2.54% -6.14% MC
2 USA Scottie Scheffler 8.5 (Coral: 12 @ 1/5) 10.53% 7.76% 2.42% -5.34% 1
3 ESP Jon Rahm 12 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.3/1) 7.69% 5.67% 3.54% -2.13%
4 USA Patrick Cantlay 14 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.92% 1.03% -3.89% T19
5 USA Max Homa 16 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.34% 1.76% -2.58% T6
6 USA Justin Thomas 16 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.34% 0.94% -3.4% T60
7 AUS Jason Day 22 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.21% 1.94% -1.26% T19
8 USA Collin Morikawa 25 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.84% 1.63% -1.21% T13
9 USA Xander Schauffele 25 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.84% 1.3% -1.54% T19
10 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.84% 1.28% -1.55% T3
11 USA Tony Finau 28 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.54% 3.42% 0.88% T19 11.33
12 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 33 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.17% 1.32% -0.85% 2 9.66 +36.7
13 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.17% 1.1% -1.07% T6
14 USA Cameron Young 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.17% 0.73% -1.44% T51
15 JPN Tomoharu Kimura 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.17% 0.07% -2.1%
16 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.05% 0.89% -1.15% MC
17 USA Jordan Spieth 35 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.05% 0.7% -1.35% T19
18 USA Keegan Bradley 40 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.8% 1.1% -0.7% MC 8.01
19 USA Will Zalatoris 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 1.68% 0.77% -0.91% 73 7.47
20 USA Keith Mitchell 50 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.45% 1.6% 0.15% T35 6.44
21 USA Rickie Fowler 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.1% 1.03% -0.07% T13 4.91
22 KOR Siwoo Kim 66 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 0.96% -0.14% T27 4.91
23 CAN Corey Conners 66 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 0.46% -0.64% MC 4.91
24 IRL Shane Lowry 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.01% 0.56% -0.45% T35 4.5
25 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.91% 0.46% -0.45% 5 4.06 +34.5
26 USA Russell Henley 90 (Coral: 12 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 0.43% -0.38% T19 3.61
27 USA Matt Kuchar 100 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.93% 0.2% MC 3.26
28 USA Chris Kirk 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.64% 1.54% 0.9% MC 2.84
29 USA Sahith Theegala 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.64% 1.22% 0.59% 74 2.84
30 USA Sam Burns 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.64% 0.82% 0.19% T35 2.84
31 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.64% 0.73% 0.1% T27 2.84
32 USA Harris English 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.59% 0.66% 0.06% MC 2.65
33 CAN Adam Hadwin 125 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.46% 0.88% T13 2.61
34 USA Brian Harman 125 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.15% 0.56% T44 2.61
35 USA Tom Hoge 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.06% 0.48% T3 (tied w/2) 2.61 +33.9
36 BEL Thomas Pieters 125 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.55% -0.04% 2.61
37 COL Sebastian Munoz 125 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.21% -0.38% 2.61
38 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 150 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.61% 0.12% MC
39 USA Kurt Kitayama 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.48% 1.07% 0.59% MC
40 AUS Adam Scott 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.48% 0.37% -0.11% 71
41 IRL Seamus Power 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.43% 1.4% 0.97% MC
42 ENG Justin Rose 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.41% 1.71% 1.31% T6
43 SWE Alexander Noren 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.38% 1.74% 1.35% MC
44 USA Taylor Montgomery 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.38% 1.12% 0.73% T44
45 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.76% 0.39% MC
46 CAN Adam Svensson 200 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.56% 0.19% T13
47 USA JT Poston 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.41% 0.04% MC
48 ARG Emiliano Grillo 200 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.35% -0.02% MC
49 ITA Francesco Molinari 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.35% 0.35% 0% T60
50 USA Billy Horschel 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.33% 0.65% 0.32% MC
51 USA Webb Simpson 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.33% 0.22% -0.12% MC
52 USA Brendon Todd 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.33% 0.7% 0.37% T27
53 USA Davis Riley 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.3% 0.45% 0.16% MC
54 USA Joel Dahmen 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.15% 0.85% T60
55 GER Stephan Jaeger 250 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.1% 0.8% T44
56 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.04% 0.74% MC
57 USA Sam Ryder 250 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.77% 0.48% T44
58 CAN Nick Taylor 250 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.73% 0.44% MC
59 ENG Aaron Rai 250 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.64% 0.35% T19
60 USA J.J Spaun 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.55% 0.25% MC
61 USA Lee Hodges 250 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.42% 0.13% MC
62 USA Taylor Moore 250 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.39% 0.09% T35
63 USA Gary Woodland 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.27% 0.81% 0.55% T54
64 USA Denny McCarthy 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.27% 0.42% 0.15% T13
65 USA Wyndham Clark 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.25% 0.73% 0.48% T27
66 USA Brandon Wu 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.57% 0.32% T19
67 AUS Minwoo Lee 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.23% 1.29% 1.06% T6
68 USA Aaron Wise 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.23% 0.6% 0.37% MC
69 USA Maverick McNealy 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.21% 0.83% 0.61% T60
70 USA Trey Mullinax 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 1.53% 1.32% MC
71 USA Hayden Buckley 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.57% 0.36% MC
72 USA Tyler Duncan 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.44% 0.23% T54
73 AUT Sepp Straka 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.2% 0.45% 0.25% T65
74 USA Alex Smalley 400 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.75% 0.56% T65
75 USA Ben Martin 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.55% 0.36% T54
76 USA Joseph Bramlett 400 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.43% 0.24% MC
77 USA David Lipsky 400 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.38% 0.19% MC
78 USA Nick Hardy 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.27% 0.09% MC
79 USA Patton Kizzire 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.18% -0.01% T65
80 USA Benjamin Griffin 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.18% 1.17% 0.99% T35
81 AUS Lucas Herbert 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.17% 0.54% 0.36%
82 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.17% 0.3% 0.13% T13
83 NZL Ryan Fox 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.16% 0.52% 0.36% T27
84 USA Scott Stallings 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.16% 0.2% 0.04% T69
85 USA Robby Shelton 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.16% 0.92% 0.76% MC
86 BEL Thomas Detry 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.15% 0.8% 0.65% MC
87 USA Adam Long 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.53% 0.38% MC
88 SCO Martin Laird 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.36% 0.21% MC
89 USA Eric Cole 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.19% T27
90 USA Erik Barnes 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.32% 0.17% MC
91 COL Nicolas Echavarria 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.17% MC
92 USA Stewart Cink 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
93 USA Kevin Streelman 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.11% MC
94 USA Chesson Hadley 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.17% 0.03% T44
95 ENG Danny Willett 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.14% 0.56% 0.42% T27
96 USA Mackenzie Hughes 527 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.8/1) 0.19% 0.14% 1.15% 1.01% MC
97 CAN Taylor Pendrith 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.13% 0.31% 0.18% T69
98 USA Luke List 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.13% 0.39% 0.26% MC
99 USA Beau Hossler 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.13% 0.29% 0.16% MC
100 KOR Byeong Hun An 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.13% 0.46% 0.33% T35
101 USA Doug Ghim 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.13% 0.2% 0.07% MC
102 USA Greyson Sigg 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.5% 0.38% MC
103 USA Justin Lower 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.41% 0.29% MC
104 USA James Hahn 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.37% 0.25% MC
105 USA Dylan Wu 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.33% 0.2% T35
106 USA Ryan Armour 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.32% 0.2% MC
107 USA Peter Malnati 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.3% 0.17% MC
108 USA Michael Thompson 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% MC
109 AUS Cameron Davis 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.12% 0.23% 0.11% T6
110 RSA Garrick Higgo 643 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.3/1) 0.16% 0.11% 0.44% 0.33% T44
111 USA Nate Lashley 643 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.3/1) 0.16% 0.11% 0.32% 0.21% T60
112 USA Patrick Rodgers 652 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.1/1) 0.15% 0.11% 0.52% 0.41% MC
113 USA Kevin Kisner 652 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.1/1) 0.15% 0.11% 0.24% 0.13% 75
114 USA Davis Thompson 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.1% 0.84% 0.74% 68
115 AUS Aaron Baddeley 750 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.47% 0.37% 72
116 USA Harrison Endycott 750 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.32% 0.23% MC
117 RSA Dylan Frittelli 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.16% MC
118 USA Ryan Palmer 777 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.7/1) 0.13% 0.09% 0.24% 0.14% MC
119 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 787 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.6/1) 0.13% 0.09% 0.62% 0.52% MC
120 USA Adam Schenk 835 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 93.5/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.47% 0.38% MC
121 SCO Russell Knox 835 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 93.5/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.38% 0.29% MC
122 ENG Matt Wallace 863 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.8/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.3% 0.22% MC
123 USA Scott Piercy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.48% 0.41% MC
124 SWE David Lingmerth 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% T6
125 USA Kramer Hickok 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.18% T44
126 USA Lanto Griffin 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.19% 0.11%
127 USA William Gordon 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.48% 0.41% T54
128 USA Matthew NeSmith 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.43% 0.36% MC
129 USA Andrew Novak 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.42% 0.34% MC
130 USA Kevin Tway 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.38% 0.3% MC
131 AUT Matthias Schwab 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.33% 0.26% T54
132 ENG Callum Tarren 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.32% 0.24% MC
133 USA Mark Hubbard 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% T35
134 USA Chez Reavie 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.24% 0.17% MC
135 USA Doc Redman 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% MC
136 USA Lucas Glover 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.1% T51
137 USA Troy Merritt 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
138 USA Austin Smotherman 1250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.08% 0.06% 0.15% 0.09% T35
139 USA Tyson Alexander 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 1.04% 0.99% MC
140 USA Robert Streb 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.09% MC
141 USA Ryan Brehm 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.28% 0.25% MC
142 USA Chad Ramey 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.26% 0.23% T27
143 USA Nick Watney 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.24% 0.2% MC
144 USA Max McGreevy 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.18% 0.15% MC
145 USA Kelly Kraft 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.08% 0.05% MC
146 USA Jerry Kelly 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.07% 0.04% T54
147 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T6
148 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T51

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.8% 7.8%
2 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 48.8% 13.6%
3 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 73.4% 15.2%
4 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 51.4% 15.6%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 12 @ 1/5 101.9% 18.9%
6 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 80% 19.6%
7 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 58% 20.6%
8 Coral 12 @ 1/5 106.5% 21.5%
9 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 60.6% 22.6%
10 William Hill 9 @ 1/5 71.9% 23%
11 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 61.5% 23.6%
12 BetUK 7 @ 1/5 50% 23.9%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 24.1%
14 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 52.2% 25.8%
15 Betway 8 @ 1/5 65.5% 26.4%
16 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.5% 28.5%
17 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 30.2%
18 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 30.2%
19 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 57.7% 30.3%
20 VBet 8 @ 1/5 77.4% 35.6%
21 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 39.8%
22 QuinnBet 7 @ 1/5 73.2% 43.2%