Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 24.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 76.1

Total Profit: -24

WM Phoenix Open

09/02/2023 - 12/02/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7.5 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 11.76% 9.85% 2.7% -7.15% T32
2 ESP Jon Rahm 8.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.5/1) 10.87% 9.1% 2.61% -6.49% 3
3 USA Scottie Scheffler 12 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.44% 2.75% -3.68% 1
4 USA Xander Schauffele 14 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.58% 2.59% -2.98% T10
5 USA Collin Morikawa 18 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.4% 2.15% -2.25% MC
6 USA Tony Finau 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.98% 4.27% 0.29% T14
7 USA Justin Thomas 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.98% 0.86% -3.13% 4
8 KOR Sungjae Im 22 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.64% 2.38% -1.26% T6 (tied w/4) 14.81 +40
9 USA Patrick Cantlay 24 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.3/1) 4% 3.35% 1.28% -2.07% MC
10 USA Max Homa 27 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.8/1) 3.57% 2.99% 1.59% -1.4% T39 12.17
11 NOR Viktor Hovland 28 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.89% 1.86% -1.03% T42 11.75
12 USA Cameron Young 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.89% 0.68% -2.21% 64
13 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.7% 0.41% -2.29% T29
14 JPN Tomoharu Kimura 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.7% 0.08% -2.61%
15 USA Jordan Spieth 40 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.04% 0.34% -1.7% T6
16 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.74% 1.22% -0.52% T29 7.1
17 USA Sahith Theegala 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.44% 2.08% 0.64% T39 5.88
18 USA Sam Burns 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.33% 0.96% -0.37% T6 5.41
19 AUS Jason Day 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 1.4% 0.15% 5 5.09 +36.1
20 USA Rickie Fowler 70 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.18% 1.27% 0.09% T10 4.8
21 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.01% 1.4% 0.4% T6 4.11
22 SWE Alexander Noren 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 0.9% 1.93% 1.03% MC 3.67
23 USA Keegan Bradley 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.87% 1.59% 0.72% T20 3.55
24 USA Keith Mitchell 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.87% 1.16% 0.28% T42 3.55
25 USA Taylor Montgomery 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.85% 2.08% 1.22% MC 3.48
26 USA Brian Harman 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.83% 1.69% 0.86% T42 3.38
27 IRL Shane Lowry 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.72% 2.08% 1.36% MC 2.94
28 AUS Lucas Herbert 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.72% 1.09% 0.36% T50 2.94
29 CAN Corey Conners 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.67% 0.88% 0.21% T50 2.75
30 USA Brendan Steele 125 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.22% -0.44% MC 2.71
31 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 1.24% 0.62% MC
32 USA Russell Henley 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.61% 0.51% -0.1% MC
33 KOR Siwoo Kim 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 1.63% 1.05% T23
34 USA Aaron Wise 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.57% 0.8% 0.23% MC
35 USA Chris Kirk 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.57% 0.67% 0.1% MC
36 USA Wyndham Clark 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.65% 0.09% T10
37 USA Tom Hoge 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.48% 1.1% 0.62% MC
38 USA Billy Horschel 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.48% 0.78% 0.3% T32
39 USA J.J Spaun 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.45% 1.15% 0.7% MC
40 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.43% 1.11% 0.69% T42
41 IRL Seamus Power 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.43% 0.55% 0.12% T20
42 USA JT Poston 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.41% 0.52% 0.11% MC
43 CAN Adam Hadwin 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.34% 2.1% 1.76% T10
44 CAN Taylor Pendrith 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.54% 0.21% T57
45 USA Maverick McNealy 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.33% 1.14% 0.81%
46 USA Denny McCarthy 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.58% 0.27% MC
47 USA Gary Woodland 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.68% 0.38% T42
48 USA Brendon Todd 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.28% 1.15% 0.86% MC
49 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.27% -0.01% T23
50 USA Joel Dahmen 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.84% 0.58% T50
51 ARG Emiliano Grillo 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.94% 0.68% MC
52 USA Andrew Putnam 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.25% 1.58% 1.33% MC
53 USA Kurt Kitayama 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.25% 0.55% 0.3% T23
54 USA Scott Stallings 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.79% 0.55% T23
55 USA Matt Kuchar 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.54% 0.31% T32
56 USA Beau Hossler 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% T14
57 USA Hayden Buckley 371 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.7/1) 0.27% 0.22% 1.36% 1.13% T29
58 USA Davis Thompson 373 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.9/1) 0.27% 0.22% 1.67% 1.44% MC
59 ITA Francesco Molinari 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.66% 0.44% MC
60 RSA Garrick Higgo 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.54% 0.32% MC
61 USA Patton Kizzire 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.34% 0.13% MC
62 USA Kevin Kisner 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.39% 0.21% MC
63 USA Davis Riley 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.46% 0.28% MC
64 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.91% 0.73% MC
65 USA Webb Simpson 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.09% -0.09% T57
66 USA Luke List 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.38% 0.2% MC
67 USA Cameron Champ 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.33% 0.16% MC
68 USA Brandon Wu 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.45% 0.29% T50
69 USA Harris English 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.43% 0.26% MC
70 NZL Danny Lee 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.3% 0.14% T57
71 USA Taylor Moore 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.4% 0.23% T14
72 USA Patrick Rodgers 527 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.53% 0.37% T14
73 SCO Russell Knox 577 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.4/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.78% 0.63% MC
74 USA Trey Mullinax 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.14% 1.16% 1.02% T61
75 USA Kevin Tway 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% T32
76 USA Matthew NeSmith 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.55% 0.41% MC
77 GER Stephan Jaeger 616 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.9/1) 0.16% 0.14% 1% 0.86% MC
78 ENG Callum Tarren 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.65% 0.51% MC
79 USA Mackenzie Hughes 633 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.4/1) 0.16% 0.13% 1.11% 0.98% MC
80 USA Sam Ryder 633 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.4/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.42% 0.29% T20
81 SCO Martin Laird 643 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.3/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.46% 0.33% MC
82 ENG Aaron Rai 662 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.9/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.69% 0.56% T42
83 USA Peter Malnati 685 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.9/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.2% 0.08% MC
84 USA Ryan Palmer 700 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.2/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.18% 0.06% T42
85 CAN Adam Svensson 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.61% 0.5% MC
86 USA J.B. Holmes 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.1% -0.02% MC
87 CAN Nick Taylor 773 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.4/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.58% 0.48% 2
88 USA David Lipsky 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.54% 0.43% MC
89 ENG Matt Wallace 787 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.6/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.57% 0.46% MC
90 USA Mark Hubbard 796 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.3/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.47% 0.37% MC
91 RSA Erik van Rooyen 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.21% 0.11% T50
92 USA Lee Hodges 901 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 98.9/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.19% 0.1% MC
93 USA Ryan Moore 930 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 101.2/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
94 USA Justin Lower 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.47% 0.38% T50
95 USA Lucas Glover 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.41% 0.32% T39
96 AUT Matthias Schwab 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.36% 0.27% MC
97 USA Adam Schenk 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.35% 0.27% T23
98 USA Zach Johnson 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T32
99 RSA Dylan Frittelli 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% T14
100 USA Doc Redman 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
101 USA Chesson Hadley 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% T23
102 USA Troy Merritt 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% MC
103 USA Michael Thompson 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% MC
104 USA Kevin Streelman 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% MC
105 USA Austin Smotherman 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% MC
106 USA Adam Long 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.2% 0.11% T42
107 USA Doug Ghim 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.16% 0.08% MC
108 USA Greyson Sigg 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.54% 0.45% T57
109 USA Stewart Cink 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.47% 0.39% 65
110 USA Scott Piercy 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.45% 0.36%
111 USA Chez Reavie 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.26% MC
112 USA James Hahn 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.18% T32
113 USA Charley Hoffman 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.2% 0.12% T14
114 USA Nate Lashley 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.2% 0.12% T61
115 USA Jimmy Walker 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.22% MC
116 USA Tyler Duncan 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.15% MC
117 USA Andrew Landry 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.14% MC
118 USA Richy Werenski 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% MC
119 SVK Rory Sabbatini 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.19% 0.11% MC
120 USA Chad Ramey 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% MC
121 USA Kramer Hickok 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.12% 0.03% MC
122 USA Robert Streb 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.2% 0.15% MC
123 USA Nick Watney 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.25% 0.2% MC
124 USA Brian Gay 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.22% 0.18% MC
125 USA Max McGreevy 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.1% MC
126 USA Kelly Kraft 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.08% 0.04% 63
127 USA Jason Dufner 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.08% 0.04% T32
128 USA Ryan Brehm 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.18% 0.15% MC
129 USA Jim Herman 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.16% 0.12% 66
130 USA Ricky Barnes 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.09% 0.06% MC
131 USA Michael Hopper 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.08% 0.05% MC
132 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T50
133 USA Dalton Ward 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
134 USA Brett White 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
135 USA Andre Metzger 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11.4% 5.1%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 53.9% 17.5%
3 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 57.2% 20%
4 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 81.7% 20.5%
5 Coral 10 @ 1/5 81.7% 20.5%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 58.3% 20.8%
7 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 26.7%
8 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 27.3%
9 Betway 8 @ 1/5 68.5% 28.6%
10 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 29.9%
11 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 72.6% 31.7%
12 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.5% 31.9%
13 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 52.3% 34.4%
14 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 52.3% 34.4%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52.8% 37.3%
16 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 52.8% 37.3%
17 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 56.7% 40.8%
18 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 61.2% 42.4%
19 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 59.8% 43.5%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 64.7% 45.3%
21 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 64.2% 47.5%
22 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 130.7% 53.2%