Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 4.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 248.9

Total Profit: +148.8

WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play

23/03/2022 - 26/03/2022

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.61% 2.28% -4.33% T9
2 USA Justin Thomas 19 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.5/1) 5% 4.29% 2.58% -1.71% T35
3 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.09% 1.62% -2.47% T26
4 NOR Viktor Hovland 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 3.73% 6.56% 2.82% T18 16.45
5 USA Scottie Scheffler 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 3.73% 5.26% 1.52% 1 16.45 +238.5
6 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.73% 1.75% -1.99% T35
7 USA Collin Morikawa 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.3% 4.85% 1.55% T9 14.55
8 USA Daniel Berger 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.3% 1.27% -2.03% T35
9 USA Dustin Johnson 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.3% 1.01% -2.29% 4
10 USA Billy Horschel 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.96% 1.46% -1.5% T9
11 USA Jordan Spieth 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.96% 1.01% -1.96% T35
12 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.53% 2.56% 0.03% T18
13 ENG Paul Casey 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.53% 1.42% -1.1% T60
14 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.04% 3.35% 1.3% T9 9.01
15 USA Brooks Koepka 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 1.95% 0.96% -0.99% T5
16 IRL Shane Lowry 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.87% 2.15% 0.28% T35
17 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.87% 0.95% -0.92% T35
18 CHI Joaquin Niemann 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.79% 2.27% 0.48% T35
19 USA Max Homa 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.68% 1.44% -0.24% T35
20 CAN Corey Conners 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.68% 1.11% -0.57% 3
21 USA Talor Gooch 55 (Betfred: 4 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.53% 2.28% 0.75% T18 6.76
22 KOR Sungjae Im 56 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.5/1) 1.75% 1.51% 2.52% 1.01% T35 6.64
23 USA Will Zalatoris 56 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.5/1) 1.75% 1.51% 2.42% 0.91% T5 (tied w/4) 6.64 +10.4
24 USA Russell Henley 56 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.5/1) 1.75% 1.51% 2.4% 0.89% T60 6.64
25 USA Bryson DeChambeau 56 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.5/1) 1.75% 1.51% 0.51% -1% T58
26 USA Tom Hoge 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 2.08% 0.8% T58 5.65
27 USA Keith Mitchell 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 1.86% 0.58% T26
28 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 66 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13/1) 1.49% 1.28% 1.54% 0.25% T35
29 AUS Marc Leishman 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 1.15% -0.13% T35
30 USA Kevin Kisner 66 (Spreadex: 4 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.28% 1.05% -0.23% 2
31 USA Brian Harman 66 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 1.49% 1.28% 0.66% -0.62% T35
32 USA Bubba Watson 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 0.43% -0.85% T26
33 ESP Sergio Garcia 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.21% 1.28% 0.07% T26
34 MEX Abraham Ancer 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.13% 1.05% -0.08% T5
35 AUS Adam Scott 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.06% 2% 0.94% T9 4.67
36 USA Keegan Bradley 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 1.71% 0.65% T35
37 IRL Seamus Power 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 1.13% 0.07% T5
38 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 0.99% -0.07% T35
39 USA Patrick Reed 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1% 1.22% 0.22% T26
40 USA Tony Finau 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1% 0.84% -0.16% T35
41 USA Webb Simpson 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.9% 0.74% -0.17% T35
42 BEL Thomas Pieters 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.96% 1.11% T26 3.75
43 USA Cameron Young 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.56% 0.71% T35
44 COL Sebastian Munoz 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.39% 0.54% T26
45 RSA Erik van Rooyen 100 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.18% 0.33% T60
46 USA Harold Varner III 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.95% 0.1% T18
47 USA Kevin Na 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.88% 0.03% T9
48 USA Mackenzie Hughes 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.77% -0.08% T18
49 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 104 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.9/1) 0.95% 0.82% 1.14% 0.33% T60
50 KOR Siwoo Kim 104 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.9/1) 0.95% 0.82% 1.04% 0.22% T18
51 ENG Justin Rose 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.75% 0.75% 0% T26
52 AUS Lucas Herbert 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 1.29% 0.61% T18
53 USA Jason Kokrak 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.65% 2.41% 1.77% T35 2.85
54 AUT Sepp Straka 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.65% 1.15% 0.5% T35
55 USA Luke List 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.6% 1.85% 1.25% T35
56 SCO Robert MacIntyre 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.6% 0.79% 0.19% T35
57 USA Cameron Tringale 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.53% 1.5% 0.97% T35
58 ENG Lee Westwood 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.67% 0.17% T35
59 AUS Minwoo Lee 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.5% 0.09% T26
60 USA Matthew Wolff 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.79% 0.41% T60
61 ENG Richard Bland 250 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.4% 0.34% 1.24% 0.9% T9
62 JPN Takumi Kanaya 250 (QuinnBet: 4 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.48% 0.14% T9
63 SWE Alexander Noren 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
64 USA Maverick McNealy 0% 0% 0% 0% 17

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 4.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11.7% 11.7%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 49.8% 12%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 50.8% 12.7%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 58.6% 18.5%
5 Bet365 4 @ 1/4 26.3% 23.5%
6 Bet Victor 4 @ 1/4 30.4% 27.5%
7 Parimatch 4 @ 1/4 30.4% 27.5%
8 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 71% 28.4%
9 Betfred 4 @ 1/4 33.1% 30.1%
10 William Hill 4 @ 1/4 34.1% 31.2%
11 QuinnBet 4 @ 1/4 37.1% 34.1%
12 888Sport 4 @ 1/4 38.5% 35.4%
13 Sporting Index 4 @ 1/4 39.6% 36.6%
14 Ladbrokes 4 @ 1/4 42.1% 39%
15 Coral 4 @ 1/4 42.1% 39%
16 10Bet 1 @ 1/1 39.1% 39.1%
17 Sport Nation 1 @ 1/1 39.1% 39.1%
18 VBet 4 @ 1/4 42.4% 39.2%
19 Betway 4 @ 1/4 49.2% 45.9%
20 Spreadex 4 @ 1/4 52.1% 48.8%