Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 6.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -4.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 246.3

Total Profit: +146.2

Houston Open

11/11/2021 - 14/11/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Sam Burns 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.02% 3.23% -1.79% T7
2 USA Scottie Scheffler 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.49% 2.22% -2.28% T2
3 KOR Sungjae Im 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.71% 2.32% -1.39% T19
4 USA Matthew Wolff 22 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.71% 1.39% -2.32% T11
5 USA Tony Finau 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.28% 2.54% -0.74% MC
6 AUS Cameron Smith 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.28% 1.91% -1.37% T15
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.94% 1.31% -1.64% MC
8 USA Brooks Koepka 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.75% 2.33% -0.42% MC
9 CHI Joaquin Niemann 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.75% 1.82% -0.93% MC
10 USA Talor Gooch 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.75% 1.47% -1.28% 60
11 USA Aaron Wise 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.75% 1.43% -1.33% T26
12 USA Patrick Reed 30 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.75% 1.16% -1.59% T61
13 USA Maverick McNealy 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.37% 1.93% -0.44% T19
14 USA Russell Henley 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.86% 0.86% -0.99% T7
15 AUS Adam Scott 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.78% 1.45% -0.33% T54 7.64
16 USA Jason Kokrak 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.67% 1.51% -0.17% 1 7.19 +222.9
17 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.67% 1.21% -0.47% MC
18 USA Harold Varner III 50 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.67% 1.04% -0.63% WD
19 IRL Shane Lowry 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.4% 2.05% 0.65% MC 6.01
20 RSA Erik van Rooyen 60 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.4% 1.57% 0.17% T54 6.01
21 USA Max Homa 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.4% 1.09% -0.31% T35 6.01
22 AUS Marc Leishman 61 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.2/1) 1.61% 1.38% 1.53% 0.15% T19 5.91
23 USA Cameron Tringale 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.2% 1.04% -0.17% T7 5.17
24 IRL Seamus Power 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.12% 1.3% 0.18% MC 4.83
25 USA Mackenzie Hughes 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.05% 1.56% 0.51% T29 4.53
26 COL Sebastian Munoz 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1.3% 0.25% MC 4.53
27 USA Gary Woodland 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 0.88% -0.18% MC 4.53
28 USA Lanto Griffin 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.99% 0.88% -0.11% T64 4.27
29 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 95 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.04% 0.89% 1.33% 0.44% T26 3.82
30 USA Brian Harman 95 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.04% 0.89% 0.94% 0.05% T54 3.82
31 USA Chad Ramey 95 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.04% 0.89% 0.41% -0.48% MC
32 ENG Ian Poulter 100 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.29% 0.45% MC 3.63
33 USA Kevin Streelman 100 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.85% 1.25% 0.41% T50 3.63
34 AUS Jason Day 100 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.85% 0.87% 0.03% T54 3.63
35 USA Taylor Moore 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.45% -0.4% MC
36 USA Harry Higgs 110 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.77% 0.72% -0.05% T50 3.31
37 USA Stewart Cink 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 1.24% 0.56% MC 2.91
38 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 1.09% 0.41% T41 2.91
39 USA Ryan Palmer 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 0.88% 0.2% T26 2.91
40 USA Joel Dahmen 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 0.81% 0.13% T5 (tied w/2) 2.91 +23.5
41 AUS Cameron Davis 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.6% 0.99% 0.39% MC
42 ENG Aaron Rai 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.99% 0.42% T19
43 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 0.95% 0.39% T41
44 ENG Lee Westwood 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.91% 0.34% MC
45 CAN Taylor Pendrith 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.89% 0.32% MC
46 SCO Martin Laird 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 0.65% 0.09% MC
47 AUT Sepp Straka 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.6% 0.03% MC
48 USA J.J Spaun 150 (QuinnBet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.54% -0.03% T46
49 USA Luke List 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 0.51% -0.06% T11
50 RSA Branden Grace 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.56% 1.39% 0.83% MC
51 AUT Matthias Schwab 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.56% 0.73% 0.16% T35
52 TPE C.T. Pan 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.53% 1.15% 0.63% MC
53 USA Adam Long 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.55% 0.05% T11
54 USA Denny McCarthy 175 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.48% 0.42% -0.07% T11
55 GER Stephan Jaeger 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.48% 0.27% -0.21% T35
56 SCO Russell Knox 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.38% -0.09% MC
57 SWE Henrik Norlander 189 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.5/1) 0.53% 0.45% 1.21% 0.76% 67
58 USA James Hahn 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.43% 0.27% -0.16% MC
59 ITA Francesco Molinari 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.56% 0.14% WD
60 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.52% 0.09% T41
61 RSA Dylan Frittelli 200 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.47% 0.04% T19
62 USA Brandt Snedeker 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.38% -0.04% MC
63 USA Adam Schenk 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.96% 0.55% T29
64 USA Tom Hoge 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.84% 0.43% T46
65 USA Nate Lashley 220 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.45% 0.39% 0.59% 0.2% MC
66 USA Hudson Swafford 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.37% 0.85% 0.48% T35
67 USA Greyson Sigg 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.75% 0.39% MC
68 USA Scott Stallings 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.65% 0.29% T61
69 USA Sahith Theegala 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.31% -0.05% T61
70 USA Pat Perez 246 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.2/1) 0.4% 0.35% 0.71% 0.36% MC
71 USA Scott Piercy 246 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.2/1) 0.4% 0.35% 0.61% 0.27% T19
72 USA Brian Stuard 246 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.2/1) 0.4% 0.35% 0.6% 0.25% 66
73 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.76% 0.42% T41
74 USA David Lipsky 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.72% 0.38% MC
75 CAN Roger Sloan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.66% 0.32% MC
76 USA Jason Dufner 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.61% 0.27% MC
77 USA Brandon Hagy 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.6% 0.26% MC
78 IND Anirban Lahiri 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.5% 0.16% MC
79 USA Kyle Stanley 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.45% 0.11% MC
80 USA Vincent Whaley 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.44% 0.1% T15
81 USA JT Poston 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.38% 0.04% MC
82 USA Brice Garnett 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.36% 0.02% T50
83 USA Sam Ryder 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.34% 0% MC
84 USA Davis Riley 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.27% -0.07% T29
85 USA Peter Uihlein 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.11% -0.23% MC
86 ENG Danny Willett 256 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.5/1) 0.39% 0.33% 1% 0.67% MC
87 USA Robert Streb 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.6% 0.28% T7
88 USA Andrew Landry 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.37% 0.05% MC
89 USA Trey Mullinax 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.77% 0.48% MC
90 KOR Sunghoon Kang 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.44% 0.16% WD
91 USA Joseph Bramlett 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% MC
92 USA Peter Malnati 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.41% 0.13% MC
93 USA Bronson Burgoon 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.28% 0% T35
94 CAN Nick Taylor 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.56% 0.28% T41
95 CAN Adam Svensson 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.36% 0.09% MC
96 USA Matthew NeSmith 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.27% 0% T46
97 USA Tyler Duncan 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.36% 0.09% T29
98 SWE Henrik Stenson 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.26% 1% 0.74% MC
99 USA Hank Lebioda 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.26% 0.44% 0.18% T15
100 USA Kevin Tway 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% T2
101 RSA MJ Daffue 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.26% 0.02% T64
102 USA Kramer Hickok 351 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.7/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.48% 0.24% 4
103 USA Chesson Hadley 360 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.6/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.51% 0.27% MC
104 USA Doc Redman 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.41% 0.19% MC
105 NIR Graeme McDowell 389 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.45% 0.23% MC
106 USA Zach Johnson 398 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.4/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.28% 0.07% T54
107 USA Jim Herman 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.71% 0.5% T54
108 USA Richy Werenski 400 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.44% 0.22% T50
109 USA Tyler McCumber 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.24% 0.03% MC
110 USA Brian Gay 400 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.23% 0.02% MC
111 USA Lee Hodges 417 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.3/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.42% 0.21% T46
112 USA Jimmy Walker 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.63% 0.45% MC
113 USA Nick Watney 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.61% 0.43% MC
114 RSA Dawie van der Walt 560 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.9/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.26% 0.1% MC
115 USA Chase Koepka 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 0.12% -0.02% MC
116 USA Bill Haas 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 1.56% 1.47% MC
117 FRA Paul Barjon 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.33% 0.24% MC
118 USA Shawn Stefani 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.15% 0.07% MC
119 USA Kelly Kraft 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.14% 0.06% T29
120 USA Chris Stroud 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.12% 0.04% T35
121 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.12% 0.06% T5
122 KOR Sangmoon Bae 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
123 USA John Huh 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
124 USA Connor Arendell 0% 0% 0% 0% WD
125 MEX Rodolfo Cazaubon Jnr 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
126 CAN Benjamin Silverman 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
127 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T29
128 USA Jared Wolfe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
129 USA Max McGreevy 0% 0% 0% 0% T19
130 USA Alex Smalley 0% 0% 0% 0% T15
131 USA Cameron Sisk 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
132 USA Gilbert Mendez 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 6.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -4.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 43.7% 9.1%
2 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11% 11%
3 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 46.3% 11%
4 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 53.7% 16.8%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 34% 17.9%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 58.3% 20.2%
7 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 58.3% 20.2%
8 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 39.8% 23.1%
9 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 39.8% 23.1%
10 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 50% 23.3%
11 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 40.3% 23.5%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 40.1% 25.6%
13 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 40.1% 25.6%
14 Betway 7 @ 1/5 52.8% 25.6%
15 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 43% 25.9%
16 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 90.8% 25.9%
17 VBet 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 31.9%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.6% 35.9%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 57.4% 41.1%