Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 42.8

Total Profit: -57.3

Open de Espana

07/10/2021 - 10/10/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 2 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 33.33% 25.33% 6.53% -18.8% T17
2 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 20 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.62% 1.17% -2.45% T12
3 ITA Guido Migliozzi 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.24% 3.28% 1.05% MC 9.74
4 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 1.86% 0.01% MC
5 SCO Calum Hill 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 1.21% -0.64% T45
6 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 0.54% -1.32% MC
7 GER Matthias Schmid 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.25% -0.24% MC
8 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 0.92% -0.57% 2
9 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 2.38% 1.02% MC 5.92
10 RSA Justin Harding 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 1.91% 0.56% MC 5.92
11 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 1.41% 0.05% MC 5.92
12 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 0.77% -0.59% 1
13 ENG Richard Bland 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 2.48% 1.24% T9 5.43
14 FIN Mikko Korhonen 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 1.27% 0.02% T20
15 ENG Andrew Johnston 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 1.09% -0.15% T24
16 FRA Antoine Rozner 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 0.76% -0.49% T56
17 AUS Minwoo Lee 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.31% 0.18% T39 4.95
18 USA John Catlin 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.17% 0.03% MC
19 ENG Matthew Jordan 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.88% -0.25% T24
20 ENG Marcus Armitage 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.07% 1.64% 0.57% T45 4.67
21 ENG Andy Sullivan 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.07% 0.68% -0.39% T53
22 SWE Joakim Lagergren 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1% 1.26% 0.26% T39 4.36
23 POL Adrian Meronk 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.86% 0.92% T20 4.09
24 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.32% 0.38% T45 4.09
25 ENG Jordan L Smith 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.29% 0.35% T20 4.09
26 WAL Jamie Donaldson 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.17% 0.24% T24 4.09
27 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.02% 0.08% T12 4.09
28 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.94% 0.01% MC
29 AUS Jason Scrivener 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.92% -0.02% T56
30 ESP Adrian Otaegui 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.71% -0.23% T17
31 NZL Ryan Fox 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.07% 0.24% T24 3.64
32 IND Shubhankar Sharma 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.99% 0.15% T3 (tied w/3) 3.64 +42.8
33 THA Jazz Janewattananond 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.77% -0.06% T24
34 SCO Grant Forrest 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.8% 0.05% T3
35 ENG Eddie Pepperell 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.69% -0.06% MC
36 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.6% -0.15% T20
37 ITA Edoardo Molinari 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.24% 0.55% T39 2.99
38 ENG David Horsey 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.19% 0.51% T71 2.99
39 FIN Kalle Samooja 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.91% 0.23% T34 2.99
40 RSA Wilco Nienaber 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.82% 0.14% T6 2.99
41 FRA Alexander Levy 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.8% 0.12% T12 2.99
42 NED Wil Besseling 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.66% -0.03% T6
43 ESP Jorge Campillo 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.61% -0.08% T45
44 RSA George Coetzee 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.43% -0.25% T24
45 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 125 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.72% 1.12% MC 2.63
46 NED Darius Van Driel 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.28% 0.67% T68 2.63
47 ITA Francesco Laporta 125 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.12% 0.52% T39 2.63
48 ESP Alejandro Canizares 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.01% 0.41% MC 2.63
49 ENG Matthew Southgate 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.6% 0% MC
50 DEN Jeff Winther 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.58% -0.02% MC
51 ENG Ross Fisher 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.46% -0.14% MC
52 RSA Darren Fichardt 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.33% -0.28% T71
53 SCO David Law 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.39% 0.89% T45
54 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1% 0.5% T71
55 ENG James Morrison 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.92% 0.42% MC
56 ESP Nacho Elvira 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.73% 0.22% MC
57 AUS Maverick Antcliff 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.65% 0.15% MC
58 FRA Victor Dubuisson 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.64% 0.13% T12
59 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.45% -0.06% MC
60 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.29% -0.21% T17
61 ENG Daniel Gavins 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.25% 0.82% MC
62 FRA Matthieu Pavon 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.8% 0.37% MC
63 ENG Luke Donald 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.6% 0.17% T53
64 CHN Wu Ashun 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.57% 0.14% MC
65 ENG Jack Senior 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.9% 0.52% T6
66 WAL Oliver Farr 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.88% 0.5% 75
67 ENG Ashley Chesters 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.86% 0.48% T65
68 RSA Justin Walters 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.84% 0.46% T56
69 USA Sihwan Kim 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.82% 0.44% MC
70 ENG Dale Whitnell 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.77% 0.39% MC
71 IRL John Murphy 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.73% 0.35% T24
72 SCO Connor Syme 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.63% 0.26% T34
73 FRA Benjamin Hebert 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.54% 0.16% MC
74 FRA Romain Langasque 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.48% 0.11% MC
75 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.46% 0.09% T12
76 CHN Hao Tong Li 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.43% 0.05% T68
77 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.39% 0.01% T65
78 FIN Sami Valimaki 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.59% 0.26% MC
79 ITA Renato Paratore 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.57% 0.24% T9
80 CAN Aaron Cockerill 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.49% 0.15% T65
81 USA Julian Suri 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.46% 0.12% MC
82 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% T39
83 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.59% 0.29% MC
84 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.51% 0.21% T53
85 SWE Rikard Karlberg 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.42% 0.12% MC
86 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.38% 0.07% T34
87 ITA Nino Bertasio 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.36% 0.06% T68
88 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% T56
89 SCO Scott Jamieson 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.56% 0.28% T45
90 FRA Julien Guerrier 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.36% 0.08% T3
91 ENG Garrick Porteous 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.66% 0.41% MC
92 RSA Thomas Aiken 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.53% 0.28% T56
93 SCO Marc Warren 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.47% 0.21% T9
94 ENG Chris Paisley 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.46% 0.21% MC
95 ENG David Coupland 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.45% 0.19% T45
96 ESP Pep Angles Ros 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.19% -0.06% MC
97 RSA Zander Lombard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.49% 0.27% T56
98 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.43% 0.22% MC
99 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.38% 0.16% MC
100 SWE Marcus Kinhult 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.28% 0.06% MC
101 SWE Niklas Lemke 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% T56
102 USA Samuel Del Val 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.17% -0.04% MC
103 POR Ricardo Santos 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.5% 0.31% MC
104 ENG Ross McGowan 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.36% 0.17% T24
105 ENG Richard McEvoy 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% MC
106 ESP Joel Moscatel Nachshon 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.19% 0% MC
107 FRA Robin Roussel 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.18% -0.01% MC
108 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.42% T71
109 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.52% 0.37% MC
110 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.47% 0.32% MC
111 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T56
112 MAS Gavin Green 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
113 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T45
114 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% MC
115 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% MC
116 SWE Joel Sjoholm 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% WD
117 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.21% 0.06% T39
118 NIR Cormac Sharvin 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.29% 0.17% MC
119 RSA Haydn Porteous 750 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.29% 0.19% MC
120 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.28% 0.18% MC
121 ENG David Howell 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.28% 0.17% MC
122 ITA Andrea Pavan 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% MC
123 FRA Joel Stalter 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
124 ENG Graeme Storm 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% T56
125 ESP Jacobo Pastor Lopez 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.23% 0.2% T34
126 CZE Gordan Brixi 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.16% MC
127 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
128 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T24
129 ESP David Puig 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
130 ESP Carlos Sanchez Molina 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 ESP Alfonso Buendia 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 38.4% 23%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 58.6% 32%
3 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 58.6% 32%
4 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 32.4%
5 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 32.4%
6 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 32.4%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33%
8 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 49.3% 34.8%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51.4% 36.7%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 39.5%
11 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 39.5%
12 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 55.3% 40.2%
13 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56% 40.9%
14 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 56.1% 41%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 57.8% 42.5%
16 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 72.4% 43.3%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 62.2% 45.6%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 61.3% 45.7%