Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 22.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 14.7

Total Profit: -85.4

Olympic Men's Golf Competition

29/07/2021 - 01/08/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Collin Morikawa 7 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 12.5% 10.07% 11.47% 1.41% T4
2 USA Xander Schauffele 9 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 10% 8.05% 4.2% -3.86% 1
3 USA Justin Thomas 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.71% 3.79% -2.92% T22
4 NOR Viktor Hovland 12 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.19% 5.29% -0.91% T14
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 14 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.37% 3.89% -1.47% T4
6 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 14 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% 2.13% -3.24% T4
7 ENG Paul Casey 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.74% 3.76% -0.98% T4
8 USA Patrick Reed 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.24% 2.83% -1.41% T22
9 AUS Cameron Smith 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.83% 2.26% -1.58% T10
10 MEX Abraham Ancer 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.5% 4.98% 1.48% T14 14.76
11 IRL Shane Lowry 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.5% 3.48% -0.02% T22 14.76
12 CHI Joaquin Niemann 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.5% 3.03% -0.48% T10
13 CAN Corey Conners 28 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.78% 2.66% -0.11% 13 11.7
14 KOR Sungjae Im 28 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.78% 2.46% -0.32% T22
15 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 30 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.6% 2.4% -0.2% T16
16 AUS Marc Leishman 35 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.24% 2.09% -0.14% T51
17 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 40 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.96% 1.61% -0.35% T16
18 RSA Garrick Higgo 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% 2.7% 1.12% T53 6.66
19 ITA Guido Migliozzi 55 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.44% 3.4% 1.96% T32 6.06
20 KOR Siwoo Kim 55 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.44% 1.3% -0.14% T32
21 SWE Alexander Noren 66 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.2% 1.46% 0.26% T16 5.07
22 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 70 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% 2.73% 1.59% T16 4.78
23 USA Mackenzie Hughes 70 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% 2.13% 1% 50 4.78
24 BEL Thomas Pieters 70 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% 1.47% 0.34% T16 4.78
25 MEX Carlos Ortiz 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.46% 0.47% T42 4.19
26 COL Sebastian Munoz 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.21% 0.22% T4 (tied w/6) 4.19 +14.7
27 BEL Thomas Detry 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.2% 0.21% T22 4.19
28 FRA Antoine Rozner 100 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 1.52% 0.72% T45 3.36
29 NZL Ryan Fox 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 1.87% 1.23% T42 2.7
30 SWE Henrik Norlander 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% 0.69% 0.05% T45 2.7
31 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 0.67% 0.03% T38 2.7
32 AUT Matthias Schwab 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 0.66% 0.02% T27 2.7
33 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% 0.57% 0.04% T38
34 TPE C.T. Pan 175 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 1.13% 0.68% 3
35 THA Jazz Janewattananond 175 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 0.73% 0.27% T27
36 ESP Adria Arnaus 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% T38
37 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.18% -0.22% T38
38 GER Maximilian Kieffer 250 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 1.13% 0.8% T45
39 SVK Rory Sabbatini 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.8% 0.48% 2
40 AUT Sepp Straka 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.77% 0.45% T10
41 ESP Jorge Campillo 250 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.67% 0.35% 59
42 IND Anirban Lahiri 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.63% 0.31% T42
43 FRA Romain Langasque 250 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.62% 0.3% T35
44 ITA Renato Paratore 250 (Betway: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.53% 0.21% T27
45 POL Adrian Meronk 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 1.01% 0.75% T51
46 FIN Kalle Samooja 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.73% 0.47% T45
47 FIN Sami Valimaki 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.37% 0.1% T27
48 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.43% 0.2% T35
49 CHN Wu Ashun 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.41% 0.18% T32
50 ZIM Scott Vincent 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.19% -0.04% T16
51 GER Hurly Long 400 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.16% -0.04% T35
52 PUR Rafael Campos 500 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.44% 0.28% T57
53 MAS Gavin Green 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.26% 0.1% T57
54 PHI Juvic Pagunsan 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% 55
55 THA Gunn Charoenkul 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% T45
56 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 500 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% T53
57 CZE Ondrej Lieser 750 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.18% 0.08% 60
58 IND Udayan Mane 1000 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% 56
59 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T4

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 22.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 36.2% 14.6%
2 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 32.7% 18.8%
3 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 32.9% 19%
4 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 33.1% 19.2%
5 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 33.5% 19.5%
6 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 34.2% 20.2%
7 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 34.2% 20.2%
8 GentingBet 5 @ 1/4 35% 20.8%
9 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 32.8% 21.4%
10 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 36.9% 25.1%
11 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 39.9% 27.8%
12 VBet 5 @ 1/5 28.1% 28.1%
13 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 40.9% 28.8%
14 Betway 5 @ 1/4 44% 28.9%
15 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 29%
16 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 43% 30.7%
17 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 44.3% 31.9%
18 Bet365 3 @ 1/5 33.6% 64.7%