Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 19.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 47.0

Total Profit: -53.2

BMW International Open

24/06/2021 - 27/06/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NOR Viktor Hovland 6 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.37% 5.68% -4.7% 1
2 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 7 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 12.5% 9.08% 7.08% -2% T42
3 ESP Sergio Garcia 12 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 5.59% 2.28% -3.3% T17
4 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.16% 1.63% -1.53% T5
5 FRA Antoine Rozner 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.5% 2.17% -0.34% T55 10.87
6 AUT Matthias Schwab 28 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.5% 1.54% -0.97% T29
7 ENG Sam Horsfield 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.5% 1.27% -1.23% T5
8 GER Martin Kaymer 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.5% 0.94% -1.56% 2
9 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 1.21% -0.92% T29
10 NZL Ryan Fox 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 1.54% -0.23% T14 7.69
11 RSA Dean Burmester 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 1.36% -0.41% T70
12 USA Kurt Kitayama 45 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.58% 1.48% -0.1% MC 6.86
13 ENG Andy Sullivan 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.58% 1.24% -0.34% T5
14 SWE Alexander Bjork 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.58% 1.14% -0.44% MC
15 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 45 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.58% 0.68% -0.9% T62
16 SCO Calum Hill 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.3% 1.2% -0.09% T17 5.63
17 ITA Edoardo Molinari 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.19% 0.76% -0.43% MC
18 ENG Eddie Pepperell 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.19% 0.47% -0.72% MC
19 WAL Jamie Donaldson 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.24% 0.16% MC 4.71
20 IRL Padraig Harrington 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.1% 0.01% MC 4.71
21 RSA Justin Harding 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 1.09% 0% T5 (tied w/7) 4.71 +14.3
22 ENG Andrew Johnston 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.08% 0.46% -0.62% T14
23 GER Stephan Jaeger 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 0.24% -0.84% MC
24 ESP Adrian Otaegui 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 0.17% -0.91% T29
25 USA John Catlin 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.02% 0.96% -0.06% MC 4.44
26 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.51% 0.61% T17 3.9
27 JPN Takumi Kanaya 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.7% -0.2% T17 3.9
28 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.63% -0.27% T29 3.9
29 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.37% -0.52% T17
30 THA Jazz Janewattananond 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.8% 0.46% -0.34% T37
31 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 1.34% 0.62% MC 3.13
32 GER Maximilian Kieffer 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 1.03% 0.31% MC 3.13
33 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.79% 0.07% MC 3.13
34 SCO Connor Syme 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.71% -0.01% MC 3.13
35 ENG David Horsey 100 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 0.66% -0.05% T52 3.13
36 NED Wil Besseling 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.65% -0.07% T52 3.13
37 AUS Maverick Antcliff 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.96% 0.39% T60 2.51
38 AUS Wade Ormsby 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.96% 0.38% T55 2.51
39 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.88% 0.3% MC 2.51
40 FRA Matthieu Pavon 125 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.79% 0.22% MC 2.51
41 USA Sean Crocker 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.78% 0.21% T29 2.51
42 FRA Victor Dubuisson 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.44% -0.14% 4 2.51 +32.6
43 ENG Ross Fisher 125 (Mansion Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.35% -0.22% MC 2.51
44 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.28% -0.3% MC 2.51
45 ENG James Morrison 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.52% 0.39% -0.12% T42
46 ENG Ashley Chesters 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.52% 0.34% -0.17% MC
47 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 2.02% 1.54% T17
48 RSA Darren Fichardt 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.68% 1.19% T5
49 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.37% 0.88% T42
50 DEN Jeff Winther 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.03% 0.55% T55
51 RSA Shaun Norris 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 1.02% 0.53% T5
52 ENG Dale Whitnell 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.84% 0.36% T42
53 FRA Julien Guerrier 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.64% 0.16% T42
54 AUS Scott Hend 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.6% 0.12% T26
55 SCO Scott Jamieson 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.58% 0.1% MC
56 AUS Minwoo Lee 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.58% 0.1% T42
57 RSA Louis de Jager 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.45% -0.03% T60
58 AUS Elvis Smylie 150 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.21% -0.27% MC
59 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.45% 0.04% T76
60 ESP Jorge Campillo 175 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.39% -0.02% 3
61 ITA Nino Bertasio 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 1.28% 0.92% MC
62 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.79% 0.43% T62
63 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.72% 0.36% T55
64 RSA Justin Walters 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.6% 0.23% T17
65 NZL Josh Geary 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.58% 0.22% T29
66 ENG Jack Senior 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.58% 0.22% MC
67 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.57% 0.21% T62
68 GER Sebastian Heisele 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.57% 0.2% WD
69 USA Julian Suri 200 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.48% 0.12% MC
70 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.43% 0.07% MC
71 USA Johannes Veerman 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.42% 0.06% MC
72 NED Darius Van Driel 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.35% -0.01% T68
73 RSA JC Ritchie 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.22% -0.15% T37
74 GER Alex Cejka 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.21% -0.15% MC
75 SCO Ewen Ferguson 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.19% -0.17% MC
76 SWE Niklas Lemke 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.7% 0.38% MC
77 ENG Matthew Jordan 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.23% -0.09% T17
78 GER Marcel Schneider 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.67% 0.38% T62
79 ENG Chris Wood 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.62% 0.33% MC
80 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.57% 0.28% T42
81 ENG Richard Mansell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.53% 0.24% T37
82 ESP Pep Angles Ros 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.46% 0.18% WD
83 RSA Zander Lombard 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.45% 0.16% T42
84 WAL Rhys Enoch 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.37% 0.08% MC
85 SCO Stephen Gallacher 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.39% 0.13% MC
86 GER Bernd Ritthammer 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.36% 0.09% MC
87 CAN Aaron Cockerill 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.3% 0.03% MC
88 SCO David Law 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.6% 0.36% T62
89 SCO David Drysdale 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.35% 0.11% MC
90 FRA Clement Sordet 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.28% 0.03% MC
91 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.25% 0.01% MC
92 SCO Marc Warren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 1.14% 0.93% T76
93 ENG Daniel Gavins 350 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.99% 0.79% T42
94 IRL Niall Kearney 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.57% 0.36% T12
95 ESP Alejandro Canizares 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.5% 0.3% T42
96 GER Matthias Schmid 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.44% 0.23% T14
97 ENG Garrick Porteous 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.42% 0.22% T29
98 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.36% 0.16% MC
99 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.34% 0.13% MC
100 MAS Gavin Green 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.34% 0.13% MC
101 SWE Rikard Karlberg 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.06% MC
102 USA Sihwan Kim 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.26% 0.06% T37
103 RSA Haydn Porteous 350 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.26% 0.05% WD
104 ITA Francesco Laporta 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.25% 0.04% MC
105 RSA Thomas Aiken 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.2% -0.01% MC
106 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.62% 0.44% MC
107 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.4% 0.22% T37
108 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.24% 0.06% T62
109 ENG Matthew Baldwin 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.23% 0.05% T26
110 CHI Hugo Leon 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.21% 0.03% MC
111 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.63% 0.49% 75
112 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.43% 0.29% MC
113 ARG Andres Romero 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.41% 0.26% T26
114 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% MC
115 ESP Nacho Elvira 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.2% T55
116 IRL Paul Dunne 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.17% MC
117 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.15% MC
118 POR Pedro Figueiredo 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.15% MC
119 WAL Oliver Farr 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% MC
120 GER Max Schmitt 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
121 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% T72
122 POR Ricardo Santos 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.07% MC
123 CZE Ondrej Lieser 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
124 ITA Andrea Pavan 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.05% DQ
125 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.55% 0.43% MC
126 ENG Ben Evans 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.26% 0.13% MC
127 RSA Bryce Easton 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.23% 0.11% MC
128 AUS Jake McLeod 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.33% 0.23% MC
129 FRA Joel Stalter 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.32% 0.22% MC
130 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% T52
131 FRA Robin Roussel 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% T29
132 NED Lars Van Meijel 750 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.28% 0.18% MC
133 GER Thomas Rosenmuller 750 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.21% 0.11% MC
134 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.41% 0.33% MC
135 FIN Janne Kaske 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.33% 0.26% MC
136 ESP Carlos Pigem 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.3% 0.22% T70
137 ENG David Howell 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.29% 0.22% 74
138 FRA Adrien Saddier 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% T17
139 ENG Ross McGowan 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.26% 0.19% MC
140 FRA Gregory Havret 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.24% 0.17% MC
141 SCO Daniel Young 1000 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.16% MC
142 SWE Peter Hanson 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.15% MC
143 GER Benedict Staben 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.22% 0.14% MC
144 GER Philipp Mejow 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.13% T72
145 USA Tyler Koivisto 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.12% MC
146 SCO Liam Johnston 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.09% MC
147 ENG Graeme Storm 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.24% 0.19% MC
148 CZE Simon Zach 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.21% 0.17% MC
149 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T12
150 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 KOR Yikeun Chang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 AUS Deyen Lawson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 SWE Vincent Norrman 0% 0% 0% 0% T5
154 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% T68
155 USA Zachary Bauchou 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 19.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.7% 32.8%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 58.5% 33%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 62.4% 36.3%
4 VBet 5 @ 1/4 55.1% 38.5%
5 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 55.5% 39%
6 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 57% 40.2%
7 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 68.7% 41.6%
8 Betway 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.5%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.5%
10 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 60.7% 43.6%
11 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 58.9% 45%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 60.5% 46.5%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 61.5% 47.4%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 67.5% 52.9%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 69.8% 55.1%