Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 35.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 75.8

Total Profit: -24.4

Omega Dubai Desert Classic

28/01/2021 - 31/01/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 7 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.96% 5.53% -3.43% T22
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.97% 1.86% -4.12% T17
3 USA Collin Morikawa 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.52% 4.15% -1.36% T68
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.22% 2.19% -2.03% T17
5 ENG Matt Wallace 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.41% 2.06% -1.35% T51
6 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.41% 1.95% -1.46% T22
7 ENG Paul Casey 22 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.12% 2.58% -0.54% 1
8 ESP Sergio Garcia 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.12% 1.03% -2.09% T6
9 SCO Robert MacIntyre 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.7% -0.77% 3
10 ENG Andy Sullivan 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.31% 1.78% -0.54% T48
11 IRL Shane Lowry 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.18% -0.93% T27
12 FRA Victor Perez 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 1.47% -0.53% MC
13 ESP Adria Arnaus 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.65% -0.1% T9 7.75
14 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.33% -0.42% T6 (tied w/3) 7.75 +34.9
15 BEL Thomas Pieters 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.14% -0.61% T27
16 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.11% -0.64% T44
17 ENG Justin Rose 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 0.65% -1.1% T35
18 AUS Lucas Herbert 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.56% 1.02% -0.54% T22
19 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 45 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.56% 0.99% -0.57% T35
20 ENG Lee Westwood 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.41% 1.65% 0.25% T17 6.23
21 ENG Danny Willett 55 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.28% 0.6% -0.68% T44
22 SWE Henrik Stenson 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 0.35% -0.82% MC
23 ENG Ian Poulter 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 1.98% 0.91% MC 4.74
24 AUS Jason Scrivener 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 1.88% 0.81% T41 4.74
25 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 0.67% -0.4% T9 4.74
26 FRA Antoine Rozner 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 1.62% 0.61% T9 4.48
27 FRA Romain Langasque 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 1.14% 0.13% MC 4.48
28 USA David Lipsky 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.94% 1.61% 0.67% T35 4.18
29 FIN Sami Valimaki 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.89% 2.12% 1.24% T51 3.93
30 RSA George Coetzee 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 1.33% 0.44% T60 3.93
31 RSA Dean Burmester 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.58% -0.31% T35 3.93
32 BEL Thomas Detry 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.53% -0.35% T9 3.93
33 ENG Aaron Rai 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.49% 0.78% MC 3.15
34 ENG Laurie Canter 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 1.43% 0.73% T4 (tied w/2) 3.15 +41
35 RSA Wilco Nienaber 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.19% 0.48% MC 3.15
36 NED Joost Luiten 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.6% -0.11% T44 3.15
37 FRA Victor Dubuisson 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.4% 0.83% MC 2.53
38 ENG Callum Shinkwin 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.17% 0.6% MC 2.53
39 ENG Andrew Johnston 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.87% 0.3% MC 2.53
40 SCO Scott Jamieson 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.82% 0.25% T27 2.53
41 ENG Jordan L Smith 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.63% 0.06% T60 2.53
42 ENG Ross Fisher 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.49% -0.08% T60 2.53
43 JPN Takumi Kanaya 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.47% -0.1% T9 2.53
44 USA Kurt Kitayama 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.41% -0.16% T20 2.53
45 FIN Mikko Korhonen 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 0.4% -0.17% T35 2.53
46 ESP Adrian Otaegui 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 1.27% 0.79% T51
47 RSA Brandon Stone 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.15% 0.67% 2
48 ENG Chris Paisley 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.75% 0.28% MC
49 USA Sean Crocker 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.68% 0.21% T51
50 FRA Alexander Levy 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.67% 0.19% T9
51 RSA Justin Harding 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.6% 0.13% T27
52 SCO Stephen Gallacher 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.48% 0% MC
53 NZL Ryan Fox 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.38% -0.1% T41
54 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.98% 0.57% T27
55 RSA Garrick Higgo 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.68% 0.28% MC
56 SWE Alexander Bjork 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.42% 0.01% T35
57 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 1.57% 1.22% T48
58 FRA Benjamin Hebert 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.99% 0.63% T51
59 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.9% 0.55% MC
60 SWE Joakim Lagergren 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.86% 0.5% MC
61 IRL Padraig Harrington 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.79% 0.43% T6
62 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.73% 0.37% T4
63 ENG Matthew Southgate 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.63% 0.28% MC
64 ENG Eddie Pepperell 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.53% 0.17% MC
65 SCO Connor Syme 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.53% 0.17% MC
66 ITA Renato Paratore 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.51% 0.15% 67
67 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.48% 0.12% T27
68 MAS Gavin Green 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.45% 0.09% 71
69 ENG Robert Rock 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.43% 0.07% WD
70 ENG Paul Waring 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.42% 0.06% MC
71 AUS Minwoo Lee 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.39% 0.03% MC
72 RSA Richard Sterne 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.35% 0% T20
73 AUS Wade Ormsby 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.79% 0.5% T22
74 ENG James Morrison 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.78% 0.49% MC
75 SWE Marcus Kinhult 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.72% 0.43% T60
76 ENG David Horsey 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.68% 0.39% MC
77 ESP Jorge Campillo 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.67% 0.39% MC
78 ESP Nacho Elvira 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.63% 0.34% T51
79 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.51% 0.23% T51
80 SCO Grant Forrest 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.41% 0.13% T27
81 ITA Guido Migliozzi 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.37% 0.09% T44
82 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.33% 0.05% T60
83 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.23% -0.06% MC
84 ENG Steven Brown 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.89% 0.65% T48
85 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.63% 0.39% MC
86 SCO Richie Ramsay 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.38% 0.14% T68
87 GER Sebastian Heisele 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.32% 0.09% MC
88 DEN Jeff Winther 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.29% 0.06% T27
89 FRA Matthieu Pavon 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.28% 0.04% MC
90 USA Julian Suri 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.25% 0.01% MC
91 USA John Catlin 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.59% 0.38% MC
92 GER Maximilian Kieffer 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.35% 0.15% MC
93 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.28% 0.08% MC
94 RSA Zander Lombard 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.23% 0.02% MC
95 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 400 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.79% 0.61% MC
96 RSA Justin Walters 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.5% 0.32% 59
97 IND Shubhankar Sharma 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.45% 0.27% T22
98 CHN Wu Ashun 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.32% 0.14% T9
99 ESP Alvaro Quiros 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.32% 0.14% MC
100 AUS Scott Hend 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.31% 0.13% MC
101 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.29% 0.11% MC
102 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.23% 0.05% MC
103 RSA Ernie Els 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.15% -0.03% MC
104 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.22% MC
105 ITA Nino Bertasio 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.21% T41
106 ITA Edoardo Molinari 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% 66
107 ENG Chris Wood 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% T60
108 ENG Ashley Chesters 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% T51
109 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
110 SWE Robert Karlsson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.02% MC
111 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% MC
112 ENG Richard McEvoy 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% MC
113 ENG Oliver Fisher 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.21% 0.09% MC
114 SCO David Law 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.12% 0.01% MC
115 ENG Ross McGowan 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.53% 0.44% MC
116 ENG David Howell 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.35% 0.27% MC
117 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.16% MC
118 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.08% MC
119 ENG David Langley 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.1% MC
120 ITA Andrea Pavan 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.09% WD
121 ENG David Hague 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.11% MC
122 ENG Curtis Knipes 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.17% 0.14% MC
123 MAR Karim El Hali 2500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.15% 0.12% MC
124 JOR Shergo Kurdi 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.15% 0.13% MC
125 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 0% 0% 0% 0% T68
126 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
127 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
128 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
129 FRA Julien Guerrier 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
130 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T9
131 ESP Eduard Rousaud 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 35.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 57.5% 22.2%
2 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 57.5% 22.2%
3 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 62.6% 26.3%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 28.2%
5 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 54.4% 29.5%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 57.5% 32.1%
7 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 71.7% 33.3%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 50.3% 34.2%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 61.5% 35.4%
10 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 52.7% 36.3%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51.4% 38.1%
12 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 56.6% 39.8%
13 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 56.6% 39.8%
14 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 56.7% 39.9%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 56.7% 39.9%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 53.7% 40.2%
17 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 55.8% 42.1%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.1% 43.4%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60.2% 46.1%