Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 55.9

Total Profit: -44.2

World Tour Championship

10/12/2020 - 13/12/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Patrick Reed 9 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 10% 7.78% 4.62% -3.16% T3
2 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 11 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.48% 6.55% 0.07% T8
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.98% 3.83% -2.15% T3
4 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.98% 2.55% -3.43% T10
5 USA Collin Morikawa 14 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.18% 5.06% -0.12% T10
6 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.57% 3.58% -1% 1
7 KOR Sungjae Im 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.09% 2.93% -1.17% T14
8 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.7% 2.75% -0.96% T14
9 ENG Matt Wallace 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.99% 2.6% -0.39% T29
10 SCO Robert MacIntyre 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.99% 2.3% -0.69% T23
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.99% 1.68% -1.31% T36
12 ENG Andy Sullivan 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.51% 1.72% -0.79% T10
13 BEL Thomas Pieters 30 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.51% 1.04% -1.47% T36
14 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 2.76% 0.86% T43 8.08
15 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 2.29% 0.39% T14 8.08
16 RSA Erik van Rooyen 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 2.03% 0.14% T14 8.08
17 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 1.71% -0.19% 7
18 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 1.45% -0.08% T29
19 ENG Lee Westwood 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.52% 1.11% -0.42% 2
20 SWE Henrik Stenson 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 0.88% -0.64% T36
21 RSA Wilco Nienaber 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.39% 1.41% 0.02% T23 5.92
22 ENG Danny Willett 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% 0.94% -0.45% T32
23 FIN Sami Valimaki 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 1.43% 0.27% T5 (tied w/2) 4.95 +21.7
24 FRA Antoine Rozner 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 1.29% 0.13% T36 4.95
25 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 0.89% -0.27% T23
26 RSA Dean Burmester 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 0.69% -0.47% T14
27 ENG Aaron Rai 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 2.69% 1.73% T51 4.09
28 NED Joost Luiten 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.09% 0.13% T43 4.09
29 ENG Jordan L Smith 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.03% 0.07% 47 4.09
30 ITA Renato Paratore 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.29% 0.43% 60 3.64
31 WAL Jamie Donaldson 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.2% 0.35% T36 3.64
32 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% 0.45% -0.41% T51
33 ENG Callum Shinkwin 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.65% 0.88% T36 3.28
34 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1.44% 0.67% T23 3.28
35 ESP Adrian Otaegui 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1.36% 0.59% T14 3.28
36 ESP Adria Arnaus 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1.14% 0.37% T10 3.28
37 RSA Justin Harding 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.96% 0.19% T48 3.28
38 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 0.62% -0.15% T8
39 USA Sean Crocker 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 1.58% 0.88% T14 2.99
40 ENG Marcus Armitage 125 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 1.85% 1.24% T61 2.63
41 USA John Catlin 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.79% 1.17% T54 2.63
42 ENG Laurie Canter 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.48% 0.86% T5 (tied w/2) 2.63 +34.2
43 RSA George Coetzee 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.28% 0.66% T29 2.63
44 RSA Shaun Norris 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.01% 0.4% T23 2.63
45 SCO Scott Jamieson 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.89% 0.27% T48 2.63
46 THA Jazz Janewattananond 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.88% 0.26% T57 2.63
47 ENG Sam Horsfield 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.75% 0.13% 63 2.63
48 SCO Marc Warren 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 1.02% 0.51% T32
49 NED Wil Besseling 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.96% 0.44% T43
50 ENG Eddie Pepperell 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.78% 0.26% T54
51 MAS Gavin Green 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.57% 0.05% T57
52 SWE Marcus Kinhult 160 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 1.08% 0.6% T32
53 ENG Robert Rock 175 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 1.64% 1.2% T32
54 ESP Jorge Campillo 175 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.94% 0.49% T57
55 NIR Graeme McDowell 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.73% 0.28% WD
56 SCO Connor Syme 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.61% 0.16% T36
57 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 1.11% 0.72% T14
58 RSA Garrick Higgo 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 1.02% 0.63% T14
59 FRA Benjamin Hebert 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.82% 0.43% T61
60 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.69% 0.3% T23
61 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.59% 0.21% T48
62 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.53% 0.14% 64
63 FRA Matthieu Pavon 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.43% 0.12% T54
64 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T51

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 38.5% 16.2%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 33.7% 19.5%
3 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 42.7% 19.9%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 58% 23%
5 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.5%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 49.1% 25.2%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 49.1% 25.2%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 40.7% 25.7%
9 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.8%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 42% 29.6%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.7%
12 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.8%
13 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.8%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 42.4% 30%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
17 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 44.5% 31.9%