Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 22.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

Golf in Dubai Championship

05/12/2020 - 08/12/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 SCO Robert MacIntyre 12 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.15% 2.44% -3.71% T19
2 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 14 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.33% 3.23% -2.1% T8
3 GER Martin Kaymer 14 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.33% 2.56% -2.77% T37
4 ENG Matt Wallace 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.7% 3.35% -1.35% T2
5 BEL Thomas Detry 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.7% 1.6% -3.1% T37
6 BEL Thomas Pieters 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.21% 1.19% -3.01% T25
7 ENG Andy Sullivan 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.47% 3.17% -0.3% T2
8 ENG Aaron Rai 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.07% 4.19% 1.12% T50 13.08
9 ESP Adrian Otaegui 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.35% 2.52% 0.17% T37 10
10 FIN Sami Valimaki 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.35% 2.03% -0.32% T13
11 ESP Adria Arnaus 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.35% 1.63% -0.72% MC
12 ENG Danny Willett 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.35% 1.55% -0.8% T30
13 ENG Marcus Armitage 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.95% 2.23% 0.28% T45 8.3
14 ENG Callum Shinkwin 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.95% 2% 0.05% T30 8.3
15 ENG Eddie Pepperell 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.74% 1.24% -0.5% T50
16 USA Sean Crocker 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% 1.82% 0.25% T22 6.67
17 NED Wil Besseling 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.57% 1.27% -0.3% T56
18 ENG Sam Horsfield 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% 1.06% -0.51% T45
19 ENG Matthew Jordan 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.57% 0.94% -0.62% T37
20 FRA Alexander Levy 50 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.57% 0.92% -0.65% MC
21 MAS Gavin Green 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.43% 0.87% -0.56% MC
22 SWE Marcus Kinhult 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.31% 1.29% -0.02% T62 5.58
23 ENG Jordan L Smith 60 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.31% 1.26% -0.05% T25 5.58
24 FRA Antoine Rozner 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.31% 1.09% -0.22% 1
25 SWE Alexander Bjork 60 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.31% 0.87% -0.44% MC
26 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.31% 0.68% -0.63% T13
27 ITA Renato Paratore 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.19% 1.75% 0.55% T13 5.08
28 ENG Robert Rock 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.19% 1.74% 0.55% T45 5.08
29 FIN Kalle Samooja 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.19% 1.26% 0.06% MC 5.08
30 THA Jazz Janewattananond 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.19% 1.08% -0.11% T37
31 CHN Hao Tong Li 66 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.19% 0.63% -0.56% T56
32 ENG Paul Waring 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.19% 0.61% -0.58% T25
33 FRA Benjamin Hebert 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.13% 0.71% -0.42% MC
34 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% 1.48% 0.5% MC 4.2
35 ESP Jorge Campillo 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 0.97% -0.02% 66 4.2
36 FIN Mikko Korhonen 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% 0.67% -0.32% T30
37 ENG Ross Fisher 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% 0.61% -0.38% 7
38 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% 0.6% -0.38% MC
39 SWE Joakim Lagergren 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.88% 1.44% 0.56% T8 3.74
40 ENG David Horsey 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.79% 1.67% 0.88% T22 3.37
41 GER Sebastian Heisele 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.79% 0.82% 0.02% MC 3.37
42 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.72% 0.96% 0.24% T37 3.07
43 SWE Niklas Lemke 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.63% 0.82% 0.18% T8 2.7
44 ENG James Morrison 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.63% 0.78% 0.14% T19 2.7
45 SCO Marc Warren 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% 1.55% 1.02% T8
46 DEN Jeff Winther 150 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% 1.01% 0.48% MC
47 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% 0.56% 0.03% MC
48 ENG Steven Brown 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.5% 1.01% 0.52% T8
49 SWE Oscar Lengden 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.5% 0.89% 0.4% T30
50 SCO Grant Forrest 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.5% 0.86% 0.37% 6
51 SCO Ewen Ferguson 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.78% 0.38% 67
52 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% T19
53 FRA Romain Wattel 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 0.58% 0.18% T52
54 ENG Matthew Baldwin 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.51% 0.12% T30
55 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.25% -0.14% MC
56 GER Bernd Ritthammer 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.35% 0.68% 0.33% T25
57 ENG Jack Senior 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.35% 0.62% 0.26% T58
58 ESP Pep Angles Ros 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 2.27% 1.95% T37
59 ENG David Coupland 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.84% 0.52% MC
60 SWE Rikard Karlberg 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.73% 0.41% 18
61 GER Marcel Schneider 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.61% 0.29% MC
62 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.6% 0.28% T58
63 FRA Clement Sordet 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.58% 0.26% T13
64 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.45% 0.13% T52
65 ITA Francesco Laporta 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.41% 0.09% T2
66 ESP Alejandro Canizares 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.38% 0.06% MC
67 ENG Chris Wood 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.3% -0.02% MC
68 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.25% -0.07% MC
69 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.98% 0.71% MC
70 SCO Stephen Gallacher 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.23% -0.04% T30
71 SCO Craig Howie 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 1.18% 0.95% T25
72 FRA Joel Stalter 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.81% 0.58% T68
73 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.79% 0.56% MC
74 GER Hurly Long 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.56% 0.33% T52
75 ENG Oliver Fisher 350 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.52% 0.29% MC
76 FRA Damien Perrier 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.34% 0.12% T52
77 ESP Pedro Oriol 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.31% 0.09% 71
78 ITA Nino Bertasio 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.31% 0.08% MC
79 SWE Jens Fahrbring 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.71% 0.51% T62
80 ENG Andrew Wilson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 1.95% 1.79% T62
81 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.76% 0.6% T45
82 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.71% 0.55% T62
83 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% T22
84 ENG Ben Evans 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.35% 0.19% 72
85 ENG Lee Slattery 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.29% 0.13% MC
86 IND Shiv Kapur 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.27% 0.11% MC
87 DEN John Axelsen 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.25% 0.09% T37
88 SWE Robin Petersson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.08% MC
89 SCO Liam Johnston 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.55% 0.41% MC
90 ENG Steven Tiley 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.45% 0.31% T68
91 GER Max Schmitt 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.29% 0.15% T13
92 ENG Daniel Gavins 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.25% 0.12% MC
93 IRL Niall Kearney 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.23% 0.1% T30
94 IRL Gavin Moynihan 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.28% 0.17% MC
95 ENG Jordan Wrisdale 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.78% 0.7% T68
96 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.56% 0.48% MC
97 SCO Daniel Young 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% MC
98 FRA Gary Stal 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.2% MC
99 SCO Euan Walker 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% T58
100 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.32% 0.26% MC
101 EGY Issa Abou El Ela 3000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.03% 0.25% 0.23% MC
102 UAE Ahmed Skaik 3000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.03% 0.25% 0.23% MC
103 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T2
104 MAS Nicholas Fung 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
105 RSA Mathiam KEYSER 0% 0% 0% 0% T58
106 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
107 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% T45

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 22.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 30.4% 16.3%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 40.4% 17.7%
3 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 40.4% 17.7%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 53.2% 18.8%
5 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 37.9% 25.7%
6 VBet 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 26.9%
7 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 40.2% 27.9%
8 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 41.3% 28.9%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.5%
10 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.5%
11 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.5%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.5% 29.8%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 43.9% 31.2%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 43.9% 31.2%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 45.3% 32.5%
16 Betway 6 @ 1/5 46.1% 33.2%
17 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 47.3% 34.4%