Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 57.4

Total Profit: -42.8

3M Open

22/07/2021 - 25/07/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 7 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 9.45% 3.2% -6.25% MC
2 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.44% 3.91% -0.54% T2
3 USA Tony Finau 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.44% 2.9% -1.55% T28
4 USA Patrick Reed 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.6% 3.37% -0.23% T34
5 USA Matthew Wolff 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.61% 0.8% -1.81% T39
6 ARG Emiliano Grillo 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 2.24% 0.02% MC 10.01
7 USA Keegan Bradley 33 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 1.42% -0.8% T39
8 SCO Robert MacIntyre 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.1% 2.03% -0.07% MC 9.46
9 USA Cameron Tringale 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.1% 1.48% -0.62% T16
10 ESP Sergio Garcia 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.1% 1.48% -0.62% T25
11 USA Bubba Watson 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.1% 1.1% -1% T51
12 AUS Cameron Davis 40 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.84% 1.32% -0.53% T28
13 USA Rickie Fowler 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 1.03% -0.61% T34
14 USA Hank Lebioda 50 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 1.5% 0.02% WD 6.68
15 USA Doug Ghim 50 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 0.87% -0.61% MC
16 AUS Lucas Herbert 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 1.16% -0.19% MC
17 RSA Charl Schwartzel 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 1.04% -0.31% T2
18 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 60 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.34% 0.1% T2 (tied w/3) 5.58 +36.3
19 USA Luke List 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.05% -0.19% T58
20 USA Brendon Todd 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.02% -0.22% MC
21 RSA Dylan Frittelli 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.01% -0.23% MC
22 USA Maverick McNealy 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1% -0.24% T16
23 USA Ryan Moore 60 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 0.74% -0.5% MC
24 USA Chez Reavie 60 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 0.71% -0.52% T11
25 USA Stewart Cink 66 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.24% 0.11% MC 5.08
26 USA Chris Kirk 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.02% -0.11% MC 5.08
27 USA Kyle Stanley 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0.91% -0.22% MC
28 USA Brandt Snedeker 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.31% 0.24% T11 4.8
29 USA Lanto Griffin 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.06% 1.16% 0.1% MC 4.8
30 USA Patton Kizzire 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.06% 0.89% -0.17% T39 4.8
31 USA Joel Dahmen 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0.89% -0.18% T67 4.8
32 USA Charles Howell III 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0.47% -0.6% T39
33 USA Troy Merritt 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.18% 0.24% T39 4.21
34 USA Steve Stricker 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.12% 0.18% MC 4.21
35 USA Patrick Rodgers 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.85% -0.08% T39 4.21
36 USA JT Poston 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.63% -0.3% T28
37 USA Gary Woodland 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.88% 0.05% T11 3.74
38 USA Richy Werenski 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.67% -0.08% MC 3.37
39 USA Adam Schenk 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.83% 0.15% T51 3.07
40 USA Brandon Hagy 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.19% 0.59% MC 2.71
41 USA Matt Kuchar 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.79% 0.19% MC 2.71
42 USA Brian Stuard 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.74% 0.14% T6 (tied w/5) 2.71 +21.1
43 RSA Erik van Rooyen 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.69% 0.09% T58 2.71
44 USA Bo Hoag 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.65% 0.05% T16 2.71
45 USA Beau Hossler 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.55% -0.05% T49 2.71
46 USA Michael Thompson 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.34% -0.2% T39
47 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.85% 0.35% T6
48 USA Cameron Champ 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.79% 0.29% 1
49 USA Adam Long 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.57% 0.07% T25
50 USA Ryan Armour 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.52% 0.02% T6
51 USA Sam Ryder 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.47% -0.03% T25
52 SCO Russell Knox 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.77% 0.34% MC
53 USA Tom Hoge 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.71% 0.28% MC
54 USA Scott Stallings 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.71% 0.28% T39
55 USA Pat Perez 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.69% 0.26% T11
56 ENG Tom Lewis 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.65% 0.22% T67
57 USA Matthew NeSmith 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.49% 0.06% MC
58 USA Mark Hubbard 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.47% 0.04% T16
59 USA James Hahn 175 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.45% 0.03% MC
60 USA Scott Brown 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.76% 0.39% T71
61 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.73% 0.36% MC
62 AUS Cameron Percy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.68% 0.31% T34
63 USA Joseph Bramlett 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.66% 0.28% T65
64 USA Brice Garnett 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.63% 0.25% T16
65 AUT Sepp Straka 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.61% 0.23% MC
66 USA Chesson Hadley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.59% 0.21% T58
67 USA Vincent Whaley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.58% 0.2% MC
68 CAN Roger Sloan 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.55% 0.17% T16
69 KOR Byeong Hun An 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.48% 0.1% MC
70 USA Keith Mitchell 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.38% 0% 5
71 USA Kevin Tway 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.32% -0.06% MC
72 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 1.56% 1.22% T6
73 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.64% 0.31% T58
74 USA Jason Dufner 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.47% 0.13% T28
75 USA Nate Lashley 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.03% 0.73% MC
76 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.84% 0.54% MC
77 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.72% 0.42% MC
78 USA Denny McCarthy 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.29% T67
79 USA Scott Piercy 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.48% 0.17% T71
80 USA Robert Streb 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.47% 0.17% MC
81 USA Vaughn Taylor 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.46% 0.16% WD
82 COL Camilo Villegas 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.43% 0.13% T51
83 USA Harry Higgs 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.35% 0.04% MC
84 USA John Huh 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.32% 0.02% MC
85 USA Austin Eckroat 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% T16
86 USA William Gordon 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 0.59% 0.32% MC
87 RSA Brandon Stone 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.93% 0.68% MC
88 USA Sean O'Hair 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.57% 0.32% MC
89 USA Chase Seiffert 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.56% 0.31% T58
90 USA Bo Van Pelt 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.53% 0.28% T28
91 USA Ben Martin 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.48% 0.23% MC
92 USA Bronson Burgoon 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.46% 0.21% MC
93 USA Jimmy Walker 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.44% 0.19% T11
94 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.43% 0.18% MC
95 CAN Michael Gligic 300 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.17% T49
96 USA Robby Shelton 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.41% 0.16% MC
97 USA Mark Anderson 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.33% 0.07% MC
98 RSA MJ Daffue 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.18% -0.07% T51
99 SWE David Lingmerth 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.13% -0.12% T28
100 USA J.J Spaun 350 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.64% 0.42% MC
101 USA Peter Malnati 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.4% 0.19% MC
102 ARG Fabian Gomez 350 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.32% 0.1% MC
103 AUS Aaron Baddeley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.06% T51
104 USA Josh Teater 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% T65
105 USA Andrew Landry 350 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.26% 0.04% MC
106 CAN David Hearn 350 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.25% 0.04% T58
107 USA Scott Harrington 350 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.23% 0.01% MC
108 USA Austin Cook 350 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.22% 0.01% MC
109 USA Quade Cummins 350 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.12% -0.09% MC
110 USA Rob Oppenheim 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.54% 0.35% MC
111 USA Bill Haas 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.1% MC
112 USA Wes Roach 400 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.24% 0.05% MC
113 USA John Pak 400 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.15% -0.04% MC
114 USA Nick Watney 400 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.13% -0.06% T34
115 USA Tyler McCumber 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.49% 0.34% MC
116 PUR Rafael Campos 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.44% 0.29% MC
117 ENG Luke Donald 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.37% 0.22% T16
118 USA Ted Potter-jr 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.19% MC
119 AUS Greg Chalmers 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.32% 0.17% MC
120 KOR Sunghoon Kang 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% 70
121 AUS Rhein Gibson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
122 ENG Benjamin Taylor 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
123 USA Michael Gellerman 500 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% T16
124 USA Johnson Wagner 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% MC
125 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% MC
126 USA Chris Baker 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% T51
127 USA Shawn Stefani 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% MC
128 USA Ricky Barnes 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% MC
129 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.03% T39
130 ENG Angus Flanagan 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
131 USA Zack Sucher 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
132 USA Ben Crane 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.12% -0.03% MC
133 USA Ryan Brehm 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.2% 0.08% T51
134 USA Brian Gay 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.19% 0.06% MC
135 KOR Sangmoon Bae 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.13% 0% WD
136 ARG Nelson Ledesma 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.39% 0.29% MC
137 USA Jonathan Byrd 750 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% T34
138 USA Ryan Blaum 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% MC
139 AUS John Senden 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% MC
140 USA Tom Lovelady 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.04% MC
141 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.13% 0.03% MC
142 USA Stephen Stallings Jr 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.12% 0.02% MC
143 USA Grayson Murray 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.35% 0.28% WD
144 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.17% T39
145 USA Matt Every 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.21% 0.14% MC
146 USA Dominic Bozzelli 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.13% MC
147 USA Kevin Stadler 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.19% 0.11% MC
148 USA Hunter Mahan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.17% 0.09% MC
149 USA D.J. Trahan 1000 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% MC
150 PHI Justin Quiban 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.12% 0.05% MC
151 USA Norman Xiong 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.12% 0.05% MC
152 USA D.A. Points 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.19% 0.14% MC
153 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.13% 0.08% T58
154 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T6
155 USA Ryan Hall 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Brent Snyder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 54.9% 20%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 34.7% 20.2%
3 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 58.4% 23.1%
4 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.1%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.8% 26.2%
6 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.8% 26.2%
7 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 91.5% 29.2%
8 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 69.1% 31.1%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 47.3% 31.4%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 47.3% 31.4%
11 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 47.7% 31.7%
12 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 49% 33%
13 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 33%
14 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 49.3% 36.1%
15 Betway 7 @ 1/5 64.3% 37.6%
16 VBet 5 @ 1/4 57.8% 40.8%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 43.6%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 68.1% 53.3%