Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 109.4

Total Profit: +9.3

RBC Heritage

15/04/2021 - 18/04/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 12 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.76% 2.43% -3.33% T13
2 USA Webb Simpson 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.76% 2.15% -3.6% T9
3 USA Patrick Cantlay 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.4% 2.18% -2.23% MC
4 USA Collin Morikawa 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.56% 1.74% -1.83% T7
5 USA Daniel Berger 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.25% 2.17% -1.09% T13
6 AUS Cameron Smith 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.88% 2.57% -0.31% T9
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.88% 1.51% -1.37% T39
8 ENG Paul Casey 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.58% 2.15% -0.43% MC
9 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.41% 2.85% 0.43% T4 (tied w/3) 10.67 +37.3
10 USA Will Zalatoris 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.41% 2.66% 0.25% T42 10.67
11 MEX Abraham Ancer 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.41% 1.72% -0.69% T18
12 CAN Corey Conners 33 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.2% 2.32% 0.12% T4 (tied w/3) 9.73 +37
13 USA Brian Harman 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.2% 1.34% -0.86% T13
14 KOR Sungjae Im 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.08% 1.7% -0.38% T13
15 USA Kevin Na 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 2% 0.17% MC 8.07
16 ESP Sergio Garcia 40 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 1.71% -0.12% MC
17 IRL Shane Lowry 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 1.63% 0% T9
18 USA Harris English 45 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 1.59% -0.04% MC
19 KOR Siwoo Kim 45 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 1.29% -0.34% T33
20 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 1.77% 0.3% MC 6.49
21 USA Billy Horschel 55 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.34% 1.8% 0.46% T25 5.91
22 USA Russell Henley 55 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.34% 1.37% 0.04% T9
23 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 2.22% 0.99% T33 5.43
24 USA Charley Hoffman 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 1.33% 0.1% T18 5.43
25 USA Chris Kirk 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 2.38% 1.26% T7 (tied w/2) 4.94 +35.1
26 USA Kevin Kisner 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 1.68% 0.56% MC 4.94
27 ENG Lee Westwood 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 1.41% 0.3% 63 4.94
28 USA Matt Kuchar 66 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 1.14% 0.02% T18
29 ENG Ian Poulter 70 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 0.5% -0.56% T48
30 ARG Emiliano Grillo 75 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.99% 0.83% -0.16% T2
31 SCO Robert MacIntyre 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 2.23% 1.31% T59 4.09
32 RSA Branden Grace 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.66% -0.27% T42
33 USA Kevin Streelman 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.56% -0.37% T33
34 ENG Matt Wallace 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 1.25% 0.43% T18 3.64
35 MEX Carlos Ortiz 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.57% 0.83% MC 3.28
36 USA Brendon Todd 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.95% 0.21% T39 3.28
37 RSA Dylan Frittelli 100 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.71% -0.03% T56
38 USA Michael Thompson 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.67% 0.88% 0.2% T42 2.98
39 USA Zach Johnson 110 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.67% 0.76% 0.09% MC 2.98
40 CAN Adam Hadwin 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.67% 0.57% -0.1% MC
41 USA Aaron Wise 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.82% 0.23% MC 2.63
42 USA Lucas Glover 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.68% 0.08% T33
43 USA Doug Ghim 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.59% 0% T33
44 USA JT Poston 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.58% -0.02% MC
45 USA Charles Howell III 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.54% -0.05% T18
46 TPE C.T. Pan 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.54% -0.06% MC
47 AUS Cameron Davis 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.44% -0.15% T25
48 USA Harold Varner III 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.4% -0.19% T2
49 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.95% 0.45% T52
50 USA Sam Burns 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.72% 0.22% T39
51 USA Andrew Putnam 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.65% 0.16% MC
52 USA Stewart Cink 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.61% 0.11% 1
53 SVK Rory Sabbatini 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.52% 0.02% 51
54 AUT Sepp Straka 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.51% 0.02% T59
55 SWE Alexander Noren 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.5% 0% T25
56 USA Denny McCarthy 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.48% -0.02% T13
57 USA Matthew NeSmith 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.44% -0.05% T48
58 USA Brandt Snedeker 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.38% -0.12% T42
59 USA Patton Kizzire 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.88% 0.46% MC
60 USA Adam Long 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.63% 0.2% MC
61 USA Luke List 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.57% 0.14% 58
62 SCO Russell Knox 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.49% 0.06% MC
63 ENG Danny Willett 175 (Paddy Power: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.4% -0.02% T18
64 USA Ryan Moore 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.16% -0.27% T52
65 USA Doc Redman 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.15% -0.28% MC
66 USA Tom Hoge 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.97% 0.6% T25
67 USA Jim Furyk 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.66% 0.29% MC
68 USA Chase Seiffert 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.49% 0.12% T42
69 USA Brice Garnett 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.47% 0.09% T52
70 USA Chez Reavie 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.21% -0.16% MC
71 CAN Nick Taylor 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.78% 0.48% MC
72 USA Kyle Stanley 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.75% 0.45% MC
73 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.71% 0.41% T56
74 USA Wyndham Clark 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.63% 0.34% 64
75 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.54% 0.24% MC
76 USA Maverick McNealy 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.35% 0.05% T4
77 KOR Byeong Hun An 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.34% 0.04% MC
78 ENG Tom Lewis 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.03% T25
79 USA Harry Higgs 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.03% T59
80 SWE Henrik Norlander 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.25% -0.05% MC
81 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% MC
82 USA Bo Hoag 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.57% 0.32% MC
83 USA Brandon Hagy 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.43% 0.19% MC
84 USA Ben Martin 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.17% MC
85 COL Camilo Villegas 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.17% T25
86 USA William Gordon 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.37% 0.12% MC
87 IND Anirban Lahiri 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.36% 0.11% MC
88 USA Adam Schenk 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.36% 0.11% T25
89 USA Chesson Hadley 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.34% 0.09% MC
90 USA Scott Piercy 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.32% 0.07% 62
91 USA Pat Perez 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.31% 0.06% MC
92 USA Brian Stuard 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% T18
93 USA Scott Stallings 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.24% -0.01% MC
94 PUR Rafael Campos 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.4% 0.18% MC
95 USA Patrick Rodgers 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.4% 0.18% MC
96 USA Peter Malnati 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.35% 0.16% MC
97 USA Tyler Duncan 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.33% 0.14% MC
98 USA Troy Merritt 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.14% MC
99 USA Mark Hubbard 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.28% 0.09% MC
100 NZL Danny Lee 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.23% 0.04% MC
101 USA Jason Dufner 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.17% -0.01% MC
102 USA Robert Streb 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.94% 0.8% T52
103 USA Andrew Landry 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% T33
104 USA Robby Shelton 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.39% 0.24% MC
105 USA Brian Gay 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.35% 0.2% MC
106 USA Ryan Armour 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.19% MC
107 USA Hudson Swafford 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
108 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% MC
109 USA Vaughn Taylor 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% MC
110 CAN Michael Gligic 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% MC
111 USA Wesley Bryan 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% T25
112 USA Beau Hossler 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.14% -0.01% MC
113 USA Bill Haas 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.1% -0.05% MC
114 USA Scott Brown 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.33% 0.2% MC
115 USA Jim Herman 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% MC
116 USA Scott Harrington 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.16% 0.04% T42
117 ENG Luke Donald 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.14% 0.02% MC
118 USA Ted Potter-jr 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% MC
119 USA Austin Cook 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% MC
120 KOR K.J. Choi 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% MC
121 USA William McGirt 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
122 CHN Zhang Xinjun 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
123 USA John Augenstein 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.25% 0.18% MC
124 USA Nick Watney 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
125 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.06% WD
126 USA Davis Love III 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.03% MC
127 USA Kevin Tway 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% T48
128 USA Bryson Nimmer 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.01% MC
129 USA Bo Van Pelt 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.43% 0.38% MC
130 USA Martin Trainer 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.16% 0.13% MC
131 USA Hunter Mahan 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.14% 0.11% MC
132 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% 65
133 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
134 USA Thomas Gibson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 53.8% 19.1%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 58.7% 22.9%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 58.9% 23.1%
4 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 51.8% 27.1%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44% 28.4%
6 VBet 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.5%
7 Betway 7 @ 1/5 58.1% 32.4%
8 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 75.9% 36.3%
9 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 53.1% 36.5%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 50.6% 37.3%
11 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 54.4% 37.7%
12 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 59.4% 45.3%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 61.9% 47.6%